New England and Seattle both ranked in the top 10 in terms of points allowed last season. Seattle allowed a league-low 15.9 points per game, while New England gave up 19.6 (8th-best). Given that, you might expect a low-scoring defensive struggle in the Super Bowl. And while that's possible, it's not as certain as you might expect.
Over the last 20 years, there have been 11 Super Bowls where both teams ranked in the top-10 in scoring defense. Although five of those games have been fairly low scoring, more than half (six) have not only been high-scoring, they've been six of the eight highest-scoring Super Bowls in that timeframe.
Only two of the 11 matchups of top-10 scoring defenses in the last 20 years have been below-average in terms of total points. Each of those games, at least, featured one of the two teams playing in this game: New England vs. St. Louis back in 2001 (37 total points) and Seattle vs. Pittsburgh in 2005 (31 total points). Three of the games featured average-types of totals (41-45 points between the teams), but the other six all featured at least 53 total points.
Maybe that's why the over-under for this game is a little bit higher than you might expect (48-49 points).
The Super Bowl results over the past 20 years, sorted by fewest total points, are presented below. Matchups of defenses ranked in the top 10 in points allowed are in bold.
TOTAL POINTS IN SUPER BOWLS, 1994-PRESENT | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | AFC | Rk | NFC | Rk | Final | Pts |
2014 | N.E. | 8 | Seattle | 1 | ? | ? |
2007 | N.E. | 4 | NY Giants | 17 | NY Giants 17, New England 14 | 31 |
2005 | Pittsburgh | 3 | Seattle | 7 | Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10 | 31 |
2001 | N.E. | 6 | St. Louis | 7 | New England 20, St. Louis 17 | 37 |
2011 | N.E. | 15 | NY Giants | 25 | NY Giants 21, New England 17 | 38 |
1999 | Tennessee | 15 | St. Louis | 4 | St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16 | 39 |
2000 | Baltimore | 1 | NY Giants | 5 | Baltimore 34, NY Giants 7 | 41 |
1995 | Pittsburgh | 9 | Dallas | 3 | Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17 | 44 |
2004 | N.E. | 2 | Philadelphia | 2 | New England 24, Philadelphia 21 | 45 |
2006 | Indianapolis | 23 | Chicago | 6 | Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17 | 46 |
2009 | Indianapolis | 8 | New Orleans | 20 | New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17 | 48 |
2008 | Pittsburgh | 1 | Arizona | 28 | Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23 | 50 |
2013 | Denver | 22 | Seattle | 1 | Seattle 43, Denver 8 | 51 |
1998 | Denver | 8 | Atlanta | 4 | Denver 34, Atlanta 19 | 53 |
1997 | Denver | 6 | Green Bay | 5 | Denver 31, Green Bay 24 | 55 |
2010 | Pittsburgh | 1 | Green Bay | 2 | Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25 | 56 |
1996 | N.E. | 14 | Green Bay | 1 | Green Bay 35, New England 21 | 56 |
2003 | N.E. | 1 | Carolina | 10 | New England 32, Carolina 29 | 61 |
2012 | Baltimore | 13 | San Francisco | 2 | Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31 | 65 |
2002 | Oakland | 6 | Tampa Bay | 1 | Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 | 69 |
1994 | San Diego | 9 | San Francisco | 6 | San Francisco 49, San Diego 26 | 75 |
--Andy Richardson