ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. This is the final question of the 2014 season. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: What is your preliminary top 10 for the 2015 season?
JAMES SELTZER
Preliminary Top 10s are tough to do this early, as so many things can happen before the start of next season (injuries, team changes, etc.), but based on what we know today:
- LeVeon Bell. His 2,215 all purpose yards were second in the NFL to only DeMarco Murray, and he accounted for an astonishing 35.4% of Pittsburgh's offensive output in 2014. Bell passes the eye test as the most elusive and smart running back in the NFL, and he is only entering his third year in the league. Bell is the clear #1 overall player heading into 2015.
- Jamaal Charles. Safest play at this spot. Despite missing a game, and getting banged up in a few others, Charles still racked up 9 TDs and is the clear focal point of K.C.'s offense heading into 2015. The only thing that stands in Charles' way (outside of injury) is Andy Reid's strange playcalling decisions. If Reid decides to utilize Charles effectively, expect a full return to Charles' 2013 form, in 2015.
- Eddie Lacy. Despite a slow start, Lacy still ended up being a Top 6 fantasy RB in 2014, and is as dependable as they come. With Green Bay positioned to have a similarly strong offense again in 2015, expect another dependable, workhorse type of season from Lacy.
- LeSean McCoy. Despite a "down" season, Shady still registered the 3rd-most rushing yards of anyone in 2014, and was very unlucky in terms of scoring TDs (5 TDs in 2014 as opposed to 11 TDs in 2013). Assuming McCoy stays in Philadelphia with Chip Kelly, expect a nice bounceback season from Shady, as his problems this season were more the result of O-line issues and poor QB play, than a result of his skills diminishing.
- DeMarco Murray. If Murray resigns with the Cowboys, his value will rise. However, despite Murray's amazing 2014 campaign, his 443 touches were 76 more than the next highest amount (Bell), which is a serious workload for any RB to have in one season. History suggests that RB's will see a steep drop off in production following a year with such high usage. Buyer beware with Murray in 2015.
- Antonio Brown. Brown is the most consistent, reliable fantasy performer in the NFL. Brown did not have less than five receptions in any game in 2014, and led the league in both receptions and receiving yards (while finishing second with 13 TDs). Brown is the definition of a "safe" first round pick in 2015.
- Marshawn Lynch. Again, a lot will depend on if Lynch stays with the Seahawks. Assuming he does, he would probably fall in my Top 3, however, there is too much uncertainty at this point to rank Lynch higher than No. 7. Plus, Lynch's fierce running style raises questions about his long-term durability. Yet, for now, the production is too good to ignore past this point in a draft.
- Rob Gronkwoski. Position scarcity!!! Gronk is so far and away the top tight end heading into 2015, that I could even see taking him in the Top 5. For now, he remains at No. 8, but Gronk is certainly a candidate to rise even higher come draft season.
- Matt Forte. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Bears this offseason (new coach, Cutler saga, etc.), so Forte is a tough one to rank. But, based on his usage, and the past tendencies of John Fox teams, you would have to assume Forte will be the focal point of the Bears offense in 2015. Either way, Forte's status as the sole RB in Chicago makes him worth the #9 spot, over other RBs who may face more competition for touches.
- Demaryius Thomas. Assuming Peyton returns in 2015, Demaryius has to round out the Top 10. Thomas was second in the NFL, to Brown, in both receptions and yards, and did so with a struggling Peyton Manning for the last six weeks of the season. Thomas could easily end up as the top WR in fantasy in 2015, and his floor is extremely high. Thus, he is a nice high-upside, low-downside option in 2015, and is certainly worthy of Top 10 status.
Seltzer is a writer of NFL content for Rotowire.com. Since 1997, RotoWire.com has been one of the leading fantasy sports resources on the web. Seltzer can be found on Twitter @JamesSeltzer975.
MICHAEL NAZAREK
- LeVeon Bell. He proved he can not only carry a full load and didn't need much rest (see ya Blount!), but he also proved to be a devastating pass-catcher, making him the top player to draft in 2015!
- Matt Forte. He may be 29 years old, but he's still THE GUY in the Bears offense, and after catching 102 passes in 2014, totaling 1800+ yards with 10 scores, he's the #2 player to own in PPR drafts in 2015.
- DeMarco Murray. He finally stayed healthy and blew up in his contract year in 2014. Unfortunately, there is a good chance the Cowboys don't re-sign him. If that happens, he could drop right out of the top 12 depending on where he lands.
- Jamaal Charles. Despite missing nearly two full games and being less than heavily used, Charles still caught 40 passes and scored 14 times in 2014. If fully healthy, those numbers will rebound in 2015.
- Antonio Brown. There's a new No. 1 WR in 2015, and it's the consistent Brown, a player who caught a whopping 129 passes for 1,698 yards and 13 scores in 2014. He passes Megatron due to health concerns.
- Marshawn Lynch. This is the safe pick provided he doesn't retire after the Super Bowl and the Seahawks keep him for 2015. Despite back issues, he played every game in 2014, scoring 17 times with 37 catches and is still only 28 years old.
- Eddie Lacy. He's a poor young man's Marshawn Lynch. The only difference is the Packers don't use him as much as the Seahawks use Lynch at the goal.
- Arian Foster. High-risk, high-reward player. When he's healthy and plays, he's still a top 5 player, but he missed three full games in 2014 and parts of others. Do you like to gamble?
- Jordy Nelson. The big-play deep threat on a pass-first offense with a QB in his prime nowhere near retirement. Enough said.
- Dez Bryant. He's going nowhere, as the Cowboys will franchise him if they can't re-sign him. He's the safe pick over any Broncos receivers right now due to Peyton Manning's possible retirement.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
IAN ALLAN
Cobbling together a list of candidates, I come up with five running backs, two wide receivers and a pair of quarterbacks. Most fantasy scoring systems tend to favor the players in that order (running backs, wide receivers, then quarterbacks). But the landscape of the game is changing some, and I think it’s possible to select a quarterback in the top 10. Those nine guys in my top 10: LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. And I’ve got 13 other guys who aren’t far behind. In no particular order: LeSean McCoy, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
SAM HENDRICKS
- LeVeon Bell
- Matt Forte (especially in PPR leagues)
- Eddie Lacy
- DeMarco Murray
- Jamaal Charles
- Arian Foster
- LeSean McCoy
- Antonio Brown
- Demaryius Thomas
- Marshawn Lynch
No QBs since there are so many good ones available later. Honorable mention goes to TE Rob Gronkowski. Adrian Peterson does not make it until his status is known.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
ALAN SATTERLEE
- LeVeon Bell
- Demaryius Thomas
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Antonio Brown
- Dez Bryant
- Julio Jones
- Jimmy Graham
- Calvin Johnson
- DeMarco Murray
- A.J. Green
Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
DAVID DOREY
- LeVeon Bell
- DeMarco Murray
- Jamaal Charles
- Eddie Lacy
- Matt Forte
- Dez Bryant
- Demaryius Thomas
- Adrian Peterson
- Calvin Johnson
- C.J. Anderson
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
ANDY RICHARDSON
- LeVeon Bell. Arguably the only sure every-down running back who also has youth on his side -- and is a way more talented runner and receiver than anyone expected after his rookie season.
- Matt Forte. Really made me a believer in 2014, and no reason to think he'll slow down in 2015.
- Odell Beckham Jr. Phenomenal talent who dominated from the get-go as a rookie. Impossible to overestimate what he was able to do last year and on reason to think he won't be the league's top wideout in 2015.
- Jamaal Charles. There are questions, both in how he's used and whether Kansas City won't expand Knile Davis' workload next year. But an exceptionally talented runner who should again be the focal point of the offense.
- Eddie Lacy. After a slow start, Lacy was money for most of the season. He'll still be an all-purpose back in an elite offense who will score most of the rushing touchdowns and be involved as a receiver.
- Antonio Brown. Incredibly consistent wide receiver who's working in a great offense with a great quarterback.
- Andrew Luck. There are a lot of great quarterbacks in the league, but of those players, Luck is the only one who is also a running threat and figures to get even better in 2015. He's the only quarterback I'd take in the first round, but I'd do so without regret.
- Dez Bryant. Definitely back in Dallas. Hugely talented; the only reservation is that he does tend to disappear for chunks of some games, and Dallas should decline a little next season -- DeMarco Murray probably gone, other key veterans a year older.
- DeMarco Murray. It would be nice to say that Murray will return to Dallas, and since it's possible -- other teams won't necessarily give him huge money -- he merits first-round consideration. If he ends up chasing top dollar with a bad team, though, he won't be a first-round pick.
- Rob Gronkowski. One of only two difference-making tight ends, and the best of them. Injury risk and the simple hesitance to make the TE position a first-rounder is the only reason he doesn't go a little earlier.
Richardson has been a contributor and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.