Closers are fickle, and as I would argue, the most frustrating part of drafting a team. The variability of the relief pitching makes the core projection tougher than any other spot, and then we are adding manager-appointed opportunity to the equation. This is why owners often dump saves in 5x5 leagues. However, dumping categories is a difficult recipe for owners to succeed. For risk-averse owners, below is a list of closers fantasy owners are better off avoiding heading into 2015.
Addison Reed, Diamondbacks
Originally drafted by the White Sox in the 2010 draft as a closer of the future, Reed has fulfilled that projection but not very effectively. While he does have 101 saves over the last three seasons, Reed also has been a frequent victim of the long ball with an ugly 4.22 ERA. The last two seasons have been particularly disturbing due to his velocity, which has averaged less than 93 mph. Arizona has alternatives with experience, such as Brad Ziegler and eventually David Hernandez, as well as minor league closer Matt Stites. It remains to be seen if the new Arizona regime will be as patient with Reed as last year’s leaders.
LaTroy Hawkins, Rockies
Hawkins is one of the last closers selected in drafts and an obvious name for this list. There are the obvious reasons like Coors Field and Hawkins’ age (42), as well as his terrible strikeout rate. Colorado has also brought in experience with former Brewers and Indians closer John Axford, as well as talent after adding Jairo Diaz in the Josh Rutledge deal from the Angels.
Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers
K-Rod held out until spring training for the right opportunity, and that opportunity was returning as Milwaukee’s closer. The interest in Rodriguez this offseason seemed dry, especially from stat-minded teams. Scouts have been worried about Rodriguez’s violent mechancis for several years, and they have worn on his fastball velocity. He averaged less than 91 mph on his fastball last season, and has had huge issues keeping the ball in the park over the last two seaons. His 4.50 FIP from last season is a terrible indicator for his ERA, and Jonathan Broxton is still waiting in the wings.
Jenrry Mejia, Mets
Some would argue Mejia isn’t really a closer with Bobby Parnell returning from Tommy John surgery at some point early this season, but we’ve yet to hear Mets manager Terry Collins state otherwise. Mejia emerged as New York’s closer last season after Parnell’s injury, pitching in the pen as the team tried to keep the oft-injured youngster on the mound. The plan worked, but we have to keep in mind Mejia’s competition as well as his long elbow injury history prior to 2014.
Joe Nathan, Tigers
I’ve seen Tigers setup man Joakim Soria drafted ahead of Nathan in some leagues, and I’d advocate using the fantasy football strategry of handcuffing Nathan with Soria, at the very least. He looked on his last leg in 2014, with career-worst velocity, a 4.81 ERA, and K/BB ratio below 2.00. The Tigers remain in win-now mode despite losing Max Scherzer to free agency, so manager Brad Ausmus can’t exercise too much patient if Nathan continues to struggle like he did last season.
Glen Perkins, Twins
Fighting through some arm issues last season, Perkins had a disappointing year after posting a sub-3.00 ERA from 2011-13. The final results were still an All-Star season with a career-best 6.00 K/BB ratio due to pinpoint control, but the velocity this spring will be worth watching closely after finishing last season on the shelf with a forearm strain and nerve irritation in his elbow. Perkins’ average fastball dropped nearly two mph compared to 2013, which is a red flag that he was pitching through pain. The “forearm strain” is often a precursor to the dreaded Tommy John surgery.
Neftali Feliz, Rangers
There are some fantasy owners in Feliz’s corner heading into 2015 with the thought that he is another year removed from Tommy John surgery. I’m taking the opposite approach after looking at a completely different pitcher in 2014 compared to how he looked prior to surgery. Prior to his elbow injury, Feliz was an elite pitching prospect and averaged better than 96 mph on his fastball. Last season he barely averaged 93 mph on his fastball with an ugly 6.0 K/9 and 1.4 HR/9. New Rangers manager Jeff Banister is still learning his roster, and Feliz’s past exploits probably mean very little to him if Feliz struggles early this season.
-Seth Trachtman
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