I like Chip Kelly’s decision to trade for Sam Bradford. Kelly has had a chance to work with Nick Foles. He obviously doesn’t think Foles is the right fit with his offense, so why not bring in Bradford and see what he can do? But at the same time, I don’t have a lot of confidence that Bradford is the answer.
In that offense, you want a quarterback with good mobility. They’re consistently working in the read-option look, and it’s a big plus to have a quarterback who forces those outside linebackers to stay at home. The quarterback doesn’t have to be a Newton, Mariota or Wilson, but you want some threat there.
Foles has very limited mobility, but Bradford definitely is worse there.
More notably in Kelly’s offense he wants a quarterback who can drive the ball downfield. There are plenty of quick, safe short throws, but when those long balls opportunities are there, you’ve got to hit them.
Foles did this famously in 2013, when he averaged the 2nd-most yards per completions of any quarterback in the last 10 years. In that season, Philadelphia had the best average (yards per catch) when throwing to wide receivers, and also was No. 1 in yards per catch throwing to running backs. They were No. 2 at tight end, behind only the Saints (with Jimmy Graham).
Philadelphia wasn’t as good last year. Foles was only average getting it downfield. Mark Sanchez was top-10 in that area but turned it over too much.
Bradford seemed to have the necessary downfield passing ability when he was at Oklahoma, but it hasn’t translated yet in the pros. He’s played a lot in four seasons, and in all of those he was near the bottom in average yards per throw.
This isn’t necessary the tell-all stat, of course. Part of this can be attributed to offensive design – they’ve been trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly to protect his health, and he’s often been working with lesser receivers. Obviously, Kelly has evaluated the way he’s played and feels like Bradford can do it (or at least might be able to have success).
But it’s been a long time since Bradford has looked like the kind of big-time, downfield passer the Eagles need for that offense.
What you’re looking at below is every quarterback who attempted at least 250 passes in a season from 2010-2013. I’ve got them ranked from No. 1 to into the 30s in terms of average length of completion. Bradford’s in the bottom 10 every year.
| DOWNFIELD -- YARDS PER COMPLETION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
| Roethlisbrgr | Schaub | Newton | FOLES |
| Rivers | Palmer | Freeman | Kaepernick |
| Vick | E.Manning | Luck | Rodgers |
| Rodgers | Tebow | Henne | Wilson |
| Cutler | Rodgers | Griffin | Keenum |
| Orton | Kolb | Wilson | Stafford |
| Campbell | Newton | E.Manning | G.Smith |
| McNabb | Vick | Locker | Weeden |
| Anderson | Brady | Brees | Manning |
| Brady | Cutler | Flacco | E.Manning |
| Schaub | Skelton | Brady | Rivers |
| Cassel | Rivers | Cutler | Dalton |
| Freeman | Roethlisbrgr | Sanchez | Cassel |
| Sanchez | Romo | Tannehill | Palmer |
| Flacco | Ryan | Manning | Cutler |
| E.Manning | Stafford | Palmer | Griffin |
| Fitzpatrick | Grossman | Vick | Brees |
| A.Smith | Moore | Rodgers | Newton |
| Garrard | Ponder | Romo | Pryor |
| Favre | Orton | Roethlisbrgr | Brady |
| Kitna | Brees | Schaub | Roethlisbrgr |
| Hasselbeck | Flacco | Stafford | Fitzpatrick |
| Palmer | A.Smith | Weeden | Campbell |
| Henne | Jackson | Bradford | Romo |
| Hill | Bradford | Ryan | Luck |
| Manning | Dalton | Cassel | Tannehill |
| Ryan | Sanchez | Dalton | Manuel |
| Brees | Hasselbeck | Fitzpatrick | Flacco |
| Clausen | Fitzpatrick | Rivers | A.Smith |
| Bradford | Cassel | Foles | Henne |
| … | Gabbert | Gabbert | Bradford |
| … | Freeman | Ponder | Glennon |
| … | McCoy | … | Schaub |
| … | … | … | Ryan |
—Ian Allan