We’ve got this nice group of second-year receivers. Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins all had great rookie seasons, and the natural, logical assumption is to assume they’ll all now be better. They’re a year older, they’ve had a chance to better learn the pro game and make adjustments – that’s the theory.
But history serves as a reminder that things are always easier talked about in the offseason than actually achieved on the field in the fall. Of the top 25 rookie receivers of the last 20 years, only nine of those guys came back in their second season and put up better numbers. Instead, 64 percent of said receivers put up lesser numbers.
Really.
Sounds weird. It is weird. But it’s not as easy as simply showing up to a few offseason workouts and having a better grasp of the playbook. Defenses are working too, apparently.
Here are the top 25 by my count (and someone point out if I’ve missed some undrafted or lightly regarded rookie who put up big numbers). On the left I have the players’ rookie numbers (catches, receiving yards and total touchdowns including runs and returns). To the right of the player names I have the same numbers for their second season.
Only nine of the 25 have improved, and I have put those names in bold.
| TOP 25 ROOKIE RECEIVERS (1994-2013) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No1 | Yds1 | TD1 | Player | No2 | Yds2 | TD2 | |
| 35 | 823 | 9 | Chris Sanders | 48 | 882 | 4 | down 18% |
| 67 | 1039 | 9 | Joey Galloway | 57 | 987 | 8 | down 7% |
| 54 | 924 | 11 | Eddie Kennison | 25 | 404 | 0 | down 74% |
| 90 | 1132 | 6 | Terry Glenn | 27 | 431 | 2 | down 63% |
| 64 | 836 | 8 | Marvin Harrison | 73 | 866 | 6 | down 7% |
| 63 | 844 | 8 | Keyshawn Johnson | 70 | 963 | 5 | down 5% |
| 68 | 1313 | 17 | Randy Moss | 80 | 1413 | 12 | down 9% |
| 66 | 986 | 8 | Kevin Johnson | 57 | 669 | 0 | down 54% |
| 48 | 883 | 7 | Chris Chambers | 52 | 734 | 3 | down 30% |
| 101 | 1377 | 8 | Anquan Boldin | 56 | 623 | 1 | down 63% |
| 66 | 976 | 4 | Andre Johnson | 79 | 1142 | 6 | up 24% |
| 80 | 1193 | 7 | Michael Clayton | 32 | 372 | 0 | down 77% |
| 48 | 843 | 9 | Lee Evans | 48 | 743 | 7 | down 16% |
| 54 | 817 | 8 | Roy Williams | 45 | 687 | 8 | down 10% |
| 58 | 780 | 8 | Larry Fitzgerald | 103 | 1409 | 10 | up 59% |
| 70 | 1038 | 8 | Marques Colston | 98 | 1202 | 11 | up 23% |
| 70 | 995 | 5 | Dwayne Bowe | 86 | 1022 | 7 | up 11% |
| 91 | 980 | 5 | Eddie Royal | 37 | 345 | 2 | down 64% |
| 60 | 790 | 8 | Percy Harvin | 71 | 868 | 7 | up 1% |
| 65 | 964 | 11 | Mike Williams | 65 | 771 | 3 | down 41% |
| 50 | 841 | 7 | Torrey Smith | 49 | 855 | 8 | up 6% |
| 54 | 959 | 8 | Julio Jones | 79 | 1198 | 10 | up 25% |
| 65 | 1057 | 7 | A.J. Green | 97 | 1350 | 11 | up 36% |
| 50 | 861 | 7 | T.Y. Hilton | 82 | 1083 | 5 | up 8% |
| 71 | 1046 | 8 | Keenan Allen | 77 | 783 | 4 | down 33% |
—Ian Allan