It looks like Strength of Schedule will play a larger role than usual this year. The two weakest divisions (AFC South, NFC South) are lined up to go head-to-head, and that results in those teams projecting to play unusually soft schedules. There’s more of a spread between the teams this year.
There have been 510 teams since 2000, so in a typical year, you would expect two of them to show up amongst the 30 easiest schedules (when looking at all 510 of those teams). But that’s not the case. Instead, three of the five easiest schedules of the last 16 years are in this group, with four others in the top 17.
Tennessee projects to have only the 7th-easiest schedule this year, but in the last 15 years, only 10 teams have entered the season projecting to play easier schedules. The Titans’ opponents went a combined 111-144-1 last year.
EASIEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2000 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct |
2008 | New England | 99 | 157 | 0 | .387 |
2015 | Atlanta | 104 | 150 | 2 | .410 |
2009 | Chicago | 105 | 149 | 2 | .414 |
2015 | Indianapolis | 106 | 149 | 1 | .416 |
2015 | Houston | 106 | 148 | 2 | .418 |
2009 | Minnesota | 107 | 148 | 1 | .420 |
2008 | San Diego | 108 | 148 | 0 | .422 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 108 | 146 | 2 | .426 |
2000 | Philadelphia | 109 | 147 | 0 | .426 |
2009 | Green Bay | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
2015 | New Orleans | 109 | 145 | 2 | .430 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2013 | Denver | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2000 | St. Louis | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2015 | Carolina | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
2009 | Pittsburgh | 110 | 144 | 2 | .434 |
2015 | Tennessee | 111 | 144 | 1 | .436 |
2014 | Tennessee | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2009 | Baltimore | 111 | 143 | 2 | .438 |
2008 | Oakland | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2002 | Cleveland | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2014 | Houston | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2011 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2002 | Pittsburgh | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2002 | Houston | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2000 | Oakland | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2000 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | San Francisco | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2003 | Seattle | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2003 | Arizona | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2010 | Arizona | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2008 | Denver | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2006 | Chicago | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2005 | St. Louis | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2002 | Cincinnati | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2010 | St. Louis | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2009 | Cleveland | 114 | 140 | 2 | .449 |
2008 | Buffalo | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2008 | New Orleans | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2006 | Green Bay | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2005 | Arizona | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2003 | Green Bay | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2002 | Jacksonville | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2000 | Denver | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
Of course, scheduling is a zero-sum game. There is always an equal number of wins and losses. So if there are a bunch of teams with really easy, that means other teams have to play schedules that are harder than usual.
Of the 32 hardest schedules of the last 16 years, there are six 2015 squads in the group, led by the Steelers.
HARDEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2000 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct |
2008 | Pittsburgh | 153 | 103 | 0 | .598 |
2009 | Miami | 152 | 104 | 0 | .594 |
2008 | Indianapolis | 152 | 104 | 0 | .594 |
2009 | Carolina | 151 | 104 | 1 | .592 |
2009 | New England | 151 | 105 | 0 | .590 |
2009 | Atlanta | 150 | 105 | 1 | .588 |
2000 | Buffalo | 150 | 106 | 0 | .586 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 148 | 107 | 1 | .580 |
2015 | Pittsburgh | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
2014 | Oakland | 148 | 108 | 0 | .578 |
2001 | Minnesota | 147 | 109 | 0 | .574 |
2014 | Denver | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2009 | Buffalo | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2000 | Miami | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2009 | NY Jets | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
2014 | St. Louis | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
2015 | Cincinnati | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | San Diego | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | San Francisco | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2000 | Indianapolis | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2015 | San Francisco | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2014 | Seattle | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2015 | Seattle | 142 | 112 | 2 | .559 |
2014 | Kansas City | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2008 | Jacksonville | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2000 | NY Jets | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2015 | Arizona | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2009 | New Orleans | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2011 | Carolina | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2001 | Tampa Bay | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2000 | Minnesota | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2015 | St. Louis | 141 | 114 | 1 | .553 |
2008 | Minnesota | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2008 | Baltimore | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2014 | Arizona | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2012 | NY Giants | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Tennessee | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Houston | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2008 | Houston | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2008 | Cincinnati | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2008 | Cleveland | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2005 | Miami | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
—Ian Allan