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Factoid

Rookie Wide Receivers

More misses than hits with top-10 wide receivers

Amari Cooper and Kevin White are the consensus best wide receivers coming out of college this year, and will probably be selected within the top 10 picks of the draft later this month. Does that mean they'll turn out to be great players?

Based on the last 20 years, it looks like close to a 50-50 shot they will turn out to be pretty good. For the sake of discussion, let's call last year's top-10 picks, Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans, hits. It's early, but Evans, certainly, was great as a rookie, and Watkins did pretty well despite being hamstrung by poor quarterbacking. It seems likely both will turn out pretty well.

There have been 31 wide receivers selected in the top 10 over the past 20 years. Of those players, 42 percent (13) can reasonably be considered hits -- have turned out well for the teams that drafted them. But for off-field stuff, Justin Blackmon would probably be in that group. Guys like Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams are trickier -- they had a good season or two, but it's debatable whether they should be termed hits. About half are clearly misses.

All in all, it looks relatively promising for Cooper and White, assuming they're selected that high. One should certainly turn out great; maybe both.

WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN TOP 10, 1995-2014
YearPkPlayerTeamNoYdsTDHit/Miss?
20144Sammy WatkinsBills659826Hit
20147Mike EvansBuccaneers68105112Hit
20138Tavon AustinRams404186Miss
20125Justin BlackmonJaguars648655Miss
20114A.J. GreenBengals6510577Hit
20116Julio JonesFalcons549598Hit
20097Darrius Heyward-Bey Raiders91241Miss
200910Michael Crabtree 49ers486252Miss
20072Calvin JohnsonLions487565Hit
20079Ted Ginn Jr.Dolphins344203Miss
20053Braylon EdwardsBrowns325123Miss
20057Troy WilliamsonVikings243722Miss
200510Mike WilliamsLions293501Miss
20043Larry FitzgeraldCardinals587808Hit
20047Roy WilliamsLions548178Miss
20049Reggie WilliamsJaguars272681Miss
20032Charles RogersLions222433Miss
20033Andre JohnsonTexans669764Hit
20018David TerrellBears344154Miss
20019Koren RobinsonSeahawks395361Miss
20004Peter WarrickBengals515927Miss
20008Plaxico BurressSteelers222730Hit
200010Travis TaylorRavens282763Miss
19996Torry HoltRams527886Hit
19998David BostonCardinals404732Hit
19977Ike HilliardGiants2420Miss
19961Keyshawn JohnsonJets638448Hit
19967Terry GlennPatriots9011326Hit
19954Michael WestbrookWashington345222Miss
19958Joey GallowaySeahawks6710399Hit
199510J.J. Stokes49ers385174Miss

--Andy Richardson

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