Amari Cooper and Kevin White are the consensus best wide receivers coming out of college this year, and will probably be selected within the top 10 picks of the draft later this month. Does that mean they'll turn out to be great players?
Based on the last 20 years, it looks like close to a 50-50 shot they will turn out to be pretty good. For the sake of discussion, let's call last year's top-10 picks, Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans, hits. It's early, but Evans, certainly, was great as a rookie, and Watkins did pretty well despite being hamstrung by poor quarterbacking. It seems likely both will turn out pretty well.
There have been 31 wide receivers selected in the top 10 over the past 20 years. Of those players, 42 percent (13) can reasonably be considered hits -- have turned out well for the teams that drafted them. But for off-field stuff, Justin Blackmon would probably be in that group. Guys like Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams are trickier -- they had a good season or two, but it's debatable whether they should be termed hits. About half are clearly misses.
All in all, it looks relatively promising for Cooper and White, assuming they're selected that high. One should certainly turn out great; maybe both.
| WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN TOP 10, 1995-2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Team | No | Yds | TD | Hit/Miss? |
| 2014 | 4 | Sammy Watkins | Bills | 65 | 982 | 6 | Hit |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans | Buccaneers | 68 | 1051 | 12 | Hit |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin | Rams | 40 | 418 | 6 | Miss |
| 2012 | 5 | Justin Blackmon | Jaguars | 64 | 865 | 5 | Miss |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green | Bengals | 65 | 1057 | 7 | Hit |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones | Falcons | 54 | 959 | 8 | Hit |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Raiders | 9 | 124 | 1 | Miss |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree | 49ers | 48 | 625 | 2 | Miss |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson | Lions | 48 | 756 | 5 | Hit |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn Jr. | Dolphins | 34 | 420 | 3 | Miss |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards | Browns | 32 | 512 | 3 | Miss |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson | Vikings | 24 | 372 | 2 | Miss |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams | Lions | 29 | 350 | 1 | Miss |
| 2004 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald | Cardinals | 58 | 780 | 8 | Hit |
| 2004 | 7 | Roy Williams | Lions | 54 | 817 | 8 | Miss |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams | Jaguars | 27 | 268 | 1 | Miss |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers | Lions | 22 | 243 | 3 | Miss |
| 2003 | 3 | Andre Johnson | Texans | 66 | 976 | 4 | Hit |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell | Bears | 34 | 415 | 4 | Miss |
| 2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson | Seahawks | 39 | 536 | 1 | Miss |
| 2000 | 4 | Peter Warrick | Bengals | 51 | 592 | 7 | Miss |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress | Steelers | 22 | 273 | 0 | Hit |
| 2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor | Ravens | 28 | 276 | 3 | Miss |
| 1999 | 6 | Torry Holt | Rams | 52 | 788 | 6 | Hit |
| 1999 | 8 | David Boston | Cardinals | 40 | 473 | 2 | Hit |
| 1997 | 7 | Ike Hilliard | Giants | 2 | 42 | 0 | Miss |
| 1996 | 1 | Keyshawn Johnson | Jets | 63 | 844 | 8 | Hit |
| 1996 | 7 | Terry Glenn | Patriots | 90 | 1132 | 6 | Hit |
| 1995 | 4 | Michael Westbrook | Washington | 34 | 522 | 2 | Miss |
| 1995 | 8 | Joey Galloway | Seahawks | 67 | 1039 | 9 | Hit |
| 1995 | 10 | J.J. Stokes | 49ers | 38 | 517 | 4 | Miss |
--Andy Richardson