Last week we examined the hit rates of running backs selected in the first and second-rounds of the draft. It's a subjective exercise and some grades are debatable, but it seemed like your chances of getting a great back in the first or second round were somewhere around 1 in 4. By the numbers since 2000, 10 of 39 in the first round, 8 of 32 in the second (leaving out the handful of unknowns).
Once you get into the third round, the numbers aren't that good -- depending on how some recent guys turn out, they might be far worse.
There were 40 running backs selected in the third round of the draft from 2000 to 2014. I think at this point we need to simply set aside all six backs selected in the third round in 2013 and 2014. Too early to say how Tre Mason, Jerick McKinnon, Terrance West, and Charles Sims will turn out. Dri Archer will probably never be more than a situational guy, so he's more likely in the "not great" category. Knile Davis has looked good filling in for Jamaal Charles, but we'll withhold judgment until he starts a bunch of games (if that happens).
That leaves 34 other rookie running backs, and I count four great ones (12%), a couple of uncertain value, and 28 or so who didn't amount to very much. Maybe I'm not being kind enough to Steve Slaton or Stevan Ridley, and Kevin Smith had his moments for the Lions. But it's clear that most of these guys were never viable NFL starters. Include Slaton and Ridley and we're at 6 of 34 (18%).
On the other hand, at least with the great ones, there's little debate about them. Charles, Murray, Gore, Westbrook -- all were or are really good franchise-type backs.
The 40 third-rounders, sorted by rushing yards their rookie seasons, are presented below.
| THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2014 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player | Team | Att | Yards | TDs | Great? |
| 2008 | 89 | Steve Slaton | Texans | 268 | 1282 | 10 | No |
| 2008 | 64 | Kevin Smith | Lions | 238 | 976 | 8 | No |
| 2011 | 71 | DeMarco Murray | Cowboys | 164 | 897 | 2 | Yes |
| 2014 | 75 | Tre Mason | Rams | 179 | 765 | 5 | ? |
| 2014 | 94 | Terrance West | Browns | 171 | 673 | 5 | ? |
| 2006 | 79 | Jerious Norwood | Falcons | 99 | 633 | 2 | No |
| 2005 | 65 | Frank Gore | 49ers | 127 | 608 | 3 | Yes |
| 2001 | 65 | James Jackson | Browns | 195 | 554 | 2 | No |
| 2009 | 65 | Shonn Greene | Jets | 108 | 540 | 2 | No |
| 2014 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon | Vikings | 113 | 538 | 0 | ? |
| 2012 | 84 | Bernard Pierce | Ravens | 108 | 532 | 1 | No |
| 2001 | 80 | Kevan Barlow | 49ers | 125 | 512 | 5 | No |
| 2000 | 63 | Travis Prentice | Browns | 173 | 512 | 8 | No |
| 2011 | 73 | Stevan Ridley | Patriots | 87 | 441 | 1 | No |
| 2000 | 76 | J.R. Redmond | Patriots | 125 | 406 | 3 | No |
| 2008 | 73 | Jamaal Charles | Kansas City | 67 | 357 | 1 | Yes |
| 2012 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman | Broncos | 85 | 330 | 1 | No |
| 2001 | 85 | Travis Minor | Dolphins | 59 | 281 | 4 | No |
| 2005 | 77 | Ryan Moats | Eagles | 55 | 278 | 3 | No |
| 2013 | 96 | Knile Davis | Kansas City | 70 | 242 | 5 | ? |
| 2002 | 84 | Lamar Gordon | Rams | 65 | 228 | 3 | No |
| 2009 | 74 | Glen Coffee | 49ers | 83 | 226 | 1 | No |
| 2003 | 93 | Chris Brown | Titans | 56 | 221 | 0 | No |
| 2003 | 96 | Justin Fargas | Raiders | 40 | 203 | 0 | No |
| 2002 | 91 | Brian Westbrook | Eagles | 46 | 193 | 0 | Yes |
| 2014 | 69 | Charles Sims | Buccaneers | 66 | 185 | 1 | ? |
| 2005 | 73 | Vernand Morency | Texans | 46 | 184 | 2 | No |
| 2007 | 71 | Lorenzo Booker | Dolphins | 28 | 125 | 0 | No |
| 2008 | 69 | Jacob Hester | Chargers | 19 | 95 | 2 | No |
| 2007 | 93 | Garrett Wolfe | Bears | 31 | 85 | 0 | No |
| 2014 | 97 | Dri Archer | Steelers | 10 | 40 | 0 | ? |
| 2003 | 77 | Musa Smith | Ravens | 9 | 31 | 2 | No |
| 2006 | 74 | Brian Calhoun | Lions | 7 | 19 | 0 | No |
| 2007 | 90 | Tony Hunt | Eagles | 10 | 16 | 1 | No |
| 2011 | 96 | Alex Green | Packers | 3 | 11 | 0 | No |
| 2001 | 82 | Heath Evans | Seahawks | 2 | 11 | 0 | No |
| 2003 | 85 | B.J. Askew | Jets | 2 | 9 | 0 | No |
| 2005 | 101 | Maurice Clarett | Broncos | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 2000 | 81 | Rueben Droughns | Lions | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 2000 | 88 | Doug Chapman | Vikings | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
--Andy Richardson