Fantasy Index

Factoid

Third-round running backs

Odds get pretty long outside first two rounds

Last week we examined the hit rates of running backs selected in the first and second-rounds of the draft. It's a subjective exercise and some grades are debatable, but it seemed like your chances of getting a great back in the first or second round were somewhere around 1 in 4. By the numbers since 2000, 10 of 39 in the first round, 8 of 32 in the second (leaving out the handful of unknowns).

Once you get into the third round, the numbers aren't that good -- depending on how some recent guys turn out, they might be far worse.

There were 40 running backs selected in the third round of the draft from 2000 to 2014. I think at this point we need to simply set aside all six backs selected in the third round in 2013 and 2014. Too early to say how Tre Mason, Jerick McKinnon, Terrance West, and Charles Sims will turn out. Dri Archer will probably never be more than a situational guy, so he's more likely in the "not great" category. Knile Davis has looked good filling in for Jamaal Charles, but we'll withhold judgment until he starts a bunch of games (if that happens).

That leaves 34 other rookie running backs, and I count four great ones (12%), a couple of uncertain value, and 28 or so who didn't amount to very much. Maybe I'm not being kind enough to Steve Slaton or Stevan Ridley, and Kevin Smith had his moments for the Lions. But it's clear that most of these guys were never viable NFL starters. Include Slaton and Ridley and we're at 6 of 34 (18%).

On the other hand, at least with the great ones, there's little debate about them. Charles, Murray, Gore, Westbrook -- all were or are really good franchise-type backs.

The 40 third-rounders, sorted by rushing yards their rookie seasons, are presented below.

THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2014
YearPickPlayerTeamAttYardsTDsGreat?
200889Steve SlatonTexans268128210No
200864Kevin SmithLions2389768No
201171DeMarco MurrayCowboys1648972Yes
201475Tre MasonRams1797655?
201494Terrance WestBrowns1716735?
200679Jerious NorwoodFalcons996332No
200565Frank Gore49ers1276083Yes
200165James JacksonBrowns1955542No
200965Shonn Greene Jets1085402No
201496Jerick McKinnonVikings1135380?
201284Bernard PierceRavens1085321No
200180Kevan Barlow49ers1255125No
200063Travis PrenticeBrowns1735128No
201173Stevan RidleyPatriots874411No
200076J.R. RedmondPatriots1254063No
200873Jamaal CharlesKansas City673571Yes
201267Ronnie HillmanBroncos853301No
200185Travis MinorDolphins592814No
200577Ryan MoatsEagles552783No
201396Knile DavisKansas City702425?
200284Lamar GordonRams652283No
200974Glen Coffee 49ers832261No
200393Chris Brown Titans562210No
200396Justin Fargas Raiders402030No
200291Brian WestbrookEagles461930Yes
201469Charles SimsBuccaneers661851?
200573Vernand MorencyTexans461842No
200771Lorenzo BookerDolphins281250No
200869Jacob HesterChargers19952No
200793Garrett WolfeBears31850No
201497Dri ArcherSteelers10400?
200377Musa Smith Ravens9312No
200674Brian CalhounLions7190No
200790Tony HuntEagles10161No
201196Alex GreenPackers3110No
200182Heath EvansSeahawks2110No
200385B.J. Askew Jets290No
2005101Maurice ClarettBroncos000No
200081Rueben DroughnsLions000No
200088Doug ChapmanVikings000No

--Andy Richardson

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