Ian Allan
April 14, 2015
Old running backs
Why I prefer tailbacks who are 26 and 27 years old
If I’m taking a running back in the first half of the first round, I want a guy who’s the right age. Some of these franchise-type guys are getting long in the tooth. Think Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Arian Foster.
History tells us that if you’re going to get big numbers – really big numbers – out of a running back, it’s more likely to be a guy who’s 26 or 27. Ideally you want a guy who’s been around for a couple of years, so he knows the offense and the league, but is also young and fresh.
In this century, 81 running backs have gone for at least 1,700 yards (rushing and receiving). For the purposes of this argument, I will call 1,700-plus yards “great”. When you’re looking at 1,400-1,600 yards, that’s production, but it’s not special. We’re not trying to take those guys early in round one.
Anyway, of the 81 “great” backs, very few were older than 28. (And I’m using the end-of-the-year ages on these guys.) Only three 29-year-olds did this. Only four who were 30-year-olds. And only three 31-year-olds. Nobody who was 32-plus years old managed to gain 1,700 yards in a season.
The big groups are at 26 and 27, where you’ve got a combined 27 players.
If I am picking a running back in the top 5 of the draft, I would prefer to get a guy who’s in that age group.
22-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 1,709 | 594 | 2,303 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1,361 | 854 | 2,215 |
2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,339 | 702 | 2,041 |
2003 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1,591 | 314 | 1,905 |
23-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,528 | 806 | 2,334 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,695 | 485 | 2,180 |
2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,683 | 489 | 2,172 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 |
2008 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,760 | 125 | 1,885 |
2010 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,220 | 556 | 1,776 |
2002 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1,327 | 442 | 1,769 |
2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 1,438 | 309 | 1,747 |
2000 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 1,175 | 559 | 1,734 |
2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,238 | 477 | 1,715 |
24-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 2,006 | 503 | 2,509 |
2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,645 | 725 | 2,370 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 2,066 | 205 | 2,271 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,616 | 604 | 2,220 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,364 | 704 | 2,068 |
2001 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 1,387 | 594 | 1,981 |
2010 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,467 | 468 | 1,935 |
2009 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,383 | 436 | 1,819 |
2004 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,188 | 588 | 1,776 |
2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,391 | 374 | 1,765 |
2001 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,245 | 511 | 1,756 |
2002 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 1,388 | 352 | 1,740 |
2005 | Clinton Portis, Wash. | 1,516 | 216 | 1,732 |
25-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,853 | 363 | 2,216 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 1,641 | 516 | 2,157 |
2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1,607 | 539 | 2,146 |
2011 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,224 | 617 | 1,841 |
2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,335 | 441 | 1,776 |
2000 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,006 | 719 | 1,725 |
2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 1,244 | 459 | 1,703 |
26-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 1,845 | 416 | 2,261 |
2003 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 1,883 | 367 | 2,250 |
2005 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 1,750 | 343 | 2,093 |
2004 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 1,548 | 483 | 2,031 |
2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,606 | 374 | 1,980 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,462 | 370 | 1,832 |
2012 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,590 | 196 | 1,786 |
2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,509 | 236 | 1,745 |
2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 1,699 | 41 | 1,740 |
2009 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,416 | 322 | 1,738 |
2003 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1,435 | 295 | 1,730 |
2003 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,372 | 351 | 1,723 |
2002 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1,314 | 408 | 1,722 |
2006 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 1,494 | 222 | 1,716 |
27-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,815 | 508 | 2,323 |
2012 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 2,097 | 217 | 2,314 |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 1,789 | 410 | 2,199 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1,359 | 830 | 2,189 |
2002 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,387 | 597 | 1,984 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,287 | 693 | 1,980 |
2000 | Eddie George, Tenn. | 1,509 | 453 | 1,962 |
2003 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1,572 | 370 | 1,942 |
2006 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 1,217 | 699 | 1,916 |
2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1,696 | 170 | 1,866 |
2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 1,506 | 337 | 1,843 |
2000 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 1,204 | 508 | 1,712 |
2008 | Clinton Portis, Wash. | 1,487 | 218 | 1,705 |
28-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2001 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1,555 | 614 | 2,169 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 1,382 | 765 | 2,147 |
2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 1,333 | 771 | 2,104 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1,880 | 78 | 1,958 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,474 | 475 | 1,949 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,339 | 594 | 1,933 |
2000 | Robert Smith, Minn. | 1,521 | 348 | 1,869 |
2001 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 1,513 | 320 | 1,833 |
2000 | Charlie Garner, S.F. | 1,142 | 647 | 1,789 |
29-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2002 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1,615 | 672 | 2,287 |
2004 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,518 | 578 | 2,096 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,038 | 808 | 1,846 |
30-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,860 | 530 | 2,390 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1,420 | 690 | 2,110 |
2002 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 962 | 941 | 1,903 |
2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 1,635 | 103 | 1,738 |
31-YEAR-OLDS PUTTING UP 1,700-PLUS YARDS |
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total |
2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,662 | 465 | 2,127 |
2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 1,697 | 245 | 1,942 |
2000 | Ricky Watters, Sea. | 1,242 | 613 | 1,855 |