Of all the quarterbacks selected in the first round in this century, Jameis Winston has the worst interception percentage of all of them – 18 picks in 467. Marcus Mariota, meanwhile, was the best of all those who played regularly, with just 4 interceptions in 445. But how much of that, if any, translates to the pros?
Not too much, I believe. Mariota was running a completely different offense. My hunch is he’ll really be a fish out of water trying to do the more conventional stuff. Doesn’t seem to be anything special in terms of decision making and accuracy. Picks should come for him.
For Winston, I think he’ll throw picks. Maybe 20-plus this year. He’s a gunner, and he’s got a short memory. He’s very confident (maybe too confident) trying to squeeze in balls, so I think he’ll go down swinging in a lot of games this year. I think he’s definitely the favorite to lead the entire league in picks this year. Maybe in a few years he gets his game dialed in a little more.
But as far as trying to translate college numbers, please.
I took all quarterbacks selected in the first round since 2000. I tossed out all who didn’t attempt 100 passes in their rookie season. I also tossed out Sam Bradford, since he attempted only 69 his final year at Oklahoma (with no interceptions). That left me with 27 guys.
The worst third coming in have a black dot in front of their names. These are the guys who had the worst interception percentages in college. The guys in bold at the top third – the nine who threw the fewest interceptions in college.
If you look at the first-year numbers, you see all of those college numbers go to mush.
I think you understand most of the numbers in the chart. The one that might throw you is “Rk”. That’s where the player ranked (out of the 27 quarterbacks) in interception percentage in his final year of college ball.
| INT PERCENTAGE / FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rk | Att | Int | Pct |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 5 | 393 | 5 | 1.27% |
| 2008 | • Matt Ryan | 25 | 434 | 11 | 2.53% |
| 2001 | • Michael Vick | 27 | 113 | 3 | 2.65% |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert | 8 | 413 | 11 | 2.66% |
| 2012 | • Ryan Tannehill | 23 | 484 | 13 | 2.69% |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | 2 | 428 | 12 | 2.80% |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | 17 | 627 | 18 | 2.87% |
| 2013 | • EJ Manuel | 19 | 306 | 9 | 2.94% |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 402 | 12 | 2.99% |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart | 7 | 377 | 12 | 3.18% |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden | 14 | 517 | 17 | 3.29% |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 18 | 517 | 17 | 3.29% |
| 2002 | David Carr | 4 | 444 | 15 | 3.38% |
| 2002 | • Patrick Ramsey | 24 | 227 | 8 | 3.52% |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles | 15 | 475 | 17 | 3.58% |
| 2006 | • Vince Young | 26 | 357 | 13 | 3.64% |
| 2006 | Jay Cutler | 9 | 137 | 5 | 3.65% |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger | 10 | 295 | 11 | 3.73% |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington | 6 | 429 | 16 | 3.73% |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich | 11 | 418 | 16 | 3.83% |
| 2003 | Kyle Boller | 16 | 224 | 9 | 4.02% |
| 2011 | • Christian Ponder | 21 | 291 | 13 | 4.47% |
| 2004 | Eli Manning | 13 | 197 | 9 | 4.57% |
| 2009 | • Matthew Stafford | 20 | 377 | 20 | 5.31% |
| 2009 | • Mark Sanchez | 22 | 364 | 20 | 5.49% |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman | 12 | 290 | 18 | 6.21% |
| 2005 | Alex Smith | 3 | 165 | 11 | 6.67% |
—Ian Allan