Bill Rehor posed the interesting question in the mailbag, where he asked how anybody could consider Mike Evans a top-10 receiver when the Bucs are starting a rookie at quarterback? He (Rehor, not Evans) specifically wanted to know if there was an precedent of receivers being successful with rookie quarterbacks in the past. So I have poked around that issue some.
I started by taking all quarterbacks selected in the first round since 2000. Then I eliminated all quarterbacks who didn’t start at least 10 games in their first year. So I was left with 21 guys.
I then went through and pulled out the most productive wide receiver from each of those teams, using 6 points for touchdown catches and 1 for every 10 yards. Ignored rushing and kick returners.
I pulled up some surprisingly decent numbers. Seven of those teams (a third) had a wide receiver catch 80-plus passes. Three others finished with 79, 74 and 67 receptions. Three receivers went over 1,300 yards.
Touchdowns, wasn’t as good. Santana Moss, with 8 TDs from RG3, was the leader, and he didn’t even start for Washington that year – it used him as kind of a red zone specialist. Two others caught 7 TDs.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to whether you have any confident in Jameis Winston. I do. I think he can be better than what Tampa Bay had at quarterback last year pretty much immediately. The Bucs last year averaged 226 passing yards, with 21 TD passes. I think they might be 5 percent better this year, putting Evans in line to maybe catch 75-80 passes and double-digit touchdowns.
Here be the receivers. I’ve got them in order of number of catches.
RECEIVERS WITH ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Receiver | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
2012 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 106 | 1,355 | 12.8 | 5 |
2008 | Roddy White, Atl. | 88 | 1,382 | 15.7 | 7 |
2011 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 87 | 967 | 11.1 | 6 |
2010 | Danny Amendola, St.L. | 85 | 689 | 8.1 | 3 |
2006 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 83 | 1,203 | 14.5 | 4 |
2004 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 80 | 1,004 | 12.6 | 4 |
2008 | Derrick Mason, Balt. | 80 | 1,037 | 13.0 | 5 |
2011 | Steve Smith, Car. | 79 | 1,394 | 17.6 | 7 |
2012 | Brian Hartline, Mia. | 74 | 1,083 | 14.6 | 1 |
2009 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 67 | 984 | 14.7 | 5 |
2014 | Greg Jennings, Minn. | 59 | 742 | 12.6 | 6 |
2003 | Jimmy Smith, Jac. | 54 | 805 | 14.9 | 4 |
2013 | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 52 | 597 | 11.5 | 3 |
2014 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 51 | 677 | 13.3 | 6 |
2012 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 50 | 805 | 16.1 | 5 |
2006 | Drew Bennett, Tenn. | 46 | 737 | 16.0 | 3 |
2002 | Corey Bradford, Hou. | 45 | 697 | 15.5 | 6 |
2012 | Santana Moss, Wash. | 41 | 573 | 14.0 | 8 |
2002 | Bill Schroeder, Det. | 36 | 595 | 16.5 | 5 |
2011 | Jason Hill, Jac. | 25 | 367 | 14.7 | 3 |
And, if you’re interested, are the quarterbacks who put up those same numbers. I didn’t put them in the same chart because I thought it would get too confusing. But I’ve at least got them in the same order.
ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS STARTING 10-PLUS GAMES | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | St | YPG | TD | |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273.4 | 23 |
2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 215.0 | 16 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 10 | 175.4 | 13 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 219.5 | 18 |
2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 226.6 | 11 |
2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13 | 188.1 | 15 |
2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 185.7 | 14 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253.2 | 21 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 205.9 | 12 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 226.7 | 13 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 12 | 230.8 | 14 |
2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 13 | 207.3 | 12 |
2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 197.2 | 11 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 206.5 | 9 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 15 | 225.7 | 14 |
2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 13 | 158.9 | 11 |
2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 162.0 | 9 |
2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 15 | 213.3 | 20 |
2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 12 | 186.8 | 12 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 154.4 | 12 |
—Ian Allan