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Factoid

Mike Evans

Can a receiver put up good numbers with a rookie at quarterback?

Bill Rehor posed the interesting question in the mailbag, where he asked how anybody could consider Mike Evans a top-10 receiver when the Bucs are starting a rookie at quarterback? He (Rehor, not Evans) specifically wanted to know if there was an precedent of receivers being successful with rookie quarterbacks in the past. So I have poked around that issue some.

I started by taking all quarterbacks selected in the first round since 2000. Then I eliminated all quarterbacks who didn’t start at least 10 games in their first year. So I was left with 21 guys.

I then went through and pulled out the most productive wide receiver from each of those teams, using 6 points for touchdown catches and 1 for every 10 yards. Ignored rushing and kick returners.

I pulled up some surprisingly decent numbers. Seven of those teams (a third) had a wide receiver catch 80-plus passes. Three others finished with 79, 74 and 67 receptions. Three receivers went over 1,300 yards.

Touchdowns, wasn’t as good. Santana Moss, with 8 TDs from RG3, was the leader, and he didn’t even start for Washington that year – it used him as kind of a red zone specialist. Two others caught 7 TDs.

Ultimately, I think it comes down to whether you have any confident in Jameis Winston. I do. I think he can be better than what Tampa Bay had at quarterback last year pretty much immediately. The Bucs last year averaged 226 passing yards, with 21 TD passes. I think they might be 5 percent better this year, putting Evans in line to maybe catch 75-80 passes and double-digit touchdowns.

Here be the receivers. I’ve got them in order of number of catches.

RECEIVERS WITH ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS
YearReceiverNoYardsAvgTD
2012Reggie Wayne, Ind.1061,35512.85
2008Roddy White, Atl.881,38215.77
2011Percy Harvin, Minn.8796711.16
2010Danny Amendola, St.L.856898.13
2006Anquan Boldin, Ariz.831,20314.54
2004Hines Ward, Pitt.801,00412.64
2008Derrick Mason, Balt.801,03713.05
2011Steve Smith, Car.791,39417.67
2012Brian Hartline, Mia.741,08314.61
2009Calvin Johnson, Det.6798414.75
2014Greg Jennings, Minn.5974212.66
2003Jimmy Smith, Jac.5480514.94
2013Stevie Johnson, Buff.5259711.53
2014Allen Hurns, Jac.5167713.36
2012Josh Gordon, Clev.5080516.15
2006Drew Bennett, Tenn.4673716.03
2002Corey Bradford, Hou.4569715.56
2012Santana Moss, Wash.4157314.08
2002Bill Schroeder, Det.3659516.55
2011Jason Hill, Jac.2536714.73

And, if you’re interested, are the quarterbacks who put up those same numbers. I didn’t put them in the same chart because I thought it would get too confusing. But I’ve at least got them in the same order.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS STARTING 10-PLUS GAMES
YearStYPGTD
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.16273.423
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.16215.016
2011Christian Ponder, Minn.10175.413
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.16219.518
2006Matt Leinart, Ariz.11226.611
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.13188.115
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.16185.714
2011Cam Newton, Car.16253.221
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16205.912
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.10226.713
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.12230.814
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.13207.312
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.10197.211
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.13206.59
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.15225.714
2006Vince Young, Tenn.13158.911
2002David Carr, Hou.16162.09
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.15213.320
2002Joey Harrington, Det.12186.812
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.14154.412

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index