The Dolphins should play the easiest schedule in the league early in the year. Or they might have the hardest schedule. (You’re welcome – thought that info might be helpful.)
One of the deals you can look at in a fantasy draft is trying to get a fast start. Collect players, that is, on teams with easy schedules early in the year. So I did as much, looking at the first five games for each team. That’s Weeks 1-5 for most teams. For the teams with byes in there, I used their Week 6 game.
If such a chart is put together using wins and losses, the Dolphins project to play the easiest initial schedule in the league. Their first five opponents went a combined 22-58-0 last year.
Using wins and losses, the Colts, Browns and Bucs also project to play easy early schedules. The Lions, Rams and Vikings project to play the hardest schedules early (if teams play like they did last year).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS-LOSSES (Games 1-5) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Miami | 22 | 58 | 0 | .275 |
| Indianapolis | 27 | 53 | 0 | .338 |
| Cleveland | 28 | 52 | 0 | .350 |
| Tampa Bay | 28 | 51 | 1 | .356 |
| Carolina | 33 | 47 | 0 | .413 |
| Philadelphia | 33 | 47 | 0 | .413 |
| Houston | 35 | 44 | 1 | .444 |
| Washington | 36 | 44 | 0 | .450 |
| Arizona | 37 | 43 | 0 | .463 |
| Tennessee | 37 | 43 | 0 | .463 |
| Buffalo | 39 | 41 | 0 | .488 |
| NY Giants | 39 | 41 | 0 | .488 |
| Denver | 40 | 40 | 0 | .500 |
| Green Bay | 40 | 40 | 0 | .500 |
| NY Jets | 40 | 40 | 0 | .500 |
| Jacksonville | 40 | 39 | 1 | .506 |
| Atlanta | 41 | 39 | 0 | .513 |
| Dallas | 41 | 39 | 0 | .513 |
| New Orleans | 42 | 37 | 1 | .531 |
| Cincinnati | 43 | 37 | 0 | .538 |
| Baltimore | 43 | 36 | 1 | .544 |
| Oakland | 44 | 35 | 1 | .556 |
| Seattle | 44 | 35 | 1 | .556 |
| Pittsburgh | 45 | 35 | 0 | .563 |
| New England | 46 | 34 | 0 | .575 |
| San Diego | 46 | 33 | 1 | .581 |
| Chicago | 47 | 33 | 0 | .588 |
| San Francisco | 47 | 33 | 0 | .588 |
| Kansas City | 48 | 31 | 1 | .606 |
| Minnesota | 49 | 31 | 0 | .613 |
| St. Louis | 50 | 30 | 0 | .625 |
| Detroit | 51 | 29 | 0 | .638 |
But that’s just one way of looking at it. We can also look at how many points were allowed by those same opponents. And, as luck would have it, Miami’s first five games are against teams that allowed an average of only 18.2 points per game last year – a half point lower than the schedules of any other team.
The Cowboys, Seahawks and Kansas City should see the softest defenses early.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Games 1-5) | |
|---|---|
| team | Points |
| Dallas | 25.5 |
| Kansas City | 24.7 |
| Seattle | 24.1 |
| Philadelphia | 23.8 |
| Arizona | 23.7 |
| Minnesota | 23.3 |
| Atlanta | 23.3 |
| Buffalo | 22.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 22.8 |
| Oakland | 22.8 |
| NY Giants | 22.5 |
| San Francisco | 22.0 |
| Jacksonville | 21.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 21.4 |
| Detroit | 21.2 |
| New England | 21.1 |
| Washington | 20.9 |
| Carolina | 20.9 |
| St. Louis | 20.7 |
| New Orleans | 20.6 |
| Baltimore | 20.3 |
| Houston | 20.3 |
| San Diego | 20.3 |
| Denver | 20.2 |
| Chicago | 20.0 |
| Tennessee | 19.5 |
| Cleveland | 19.3 |
| Cincinnati | 19.2 |
| Indianapolis | 19.1 |
| Green Bay | 18.8 |
| NY Jets | 18.7 |
| Miami | 18.2 |
This first-worst thing isn’t as unusual as you might think. Of the 32 teams, there is only one that ranks in the top 25 percent in both strength of schedule systems (one of the eight easiest both ways) – Philadelphia. Similarly, there’s only one team that’s in the bottom 25 percent both ways (Chicago).
But there are five teams that are in top 25 in one system but the bottom 25 in the other (teams that can claim to have both an easy and hard initial schedule). Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Vikings and Kansas City.
Weird.
And further evidence we should probably all pay less attention to strength of schedule.
—Ian Allan