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Factoid

Allen Robinson-Marqise Lee / team drafting 2 WRs

Earlier selection usually turns out better

The other day we ran an item about Allen Robinson having a strong offseason. It's early, but based on what we've seen so far, he looks like a good bet to turn out as the better pro than Marqise Lee, who the Jaguars selected earlier in the same draft.

How often does that happen; that the wideout selected later by the same team turns out better than the one selected earlier? Not very often; usually, teams get it right with their scouting.

Since 2000, there have been 30 occasions where a team has selected two wide receivers in the first four rounds of the same draft. About half the time, not surprisingly, neither wide receiver makes much of an impact in the NFL. By our count, 15 of those pairs either didn't produce a single quality NFL starter, or it's too soon to tell (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey in St. Louis and Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood in Seattle; it's too early to say none of those guys will pan out).

Of the other 14 cases prior to Lee-Robinson, the wide receiver chosen first has turned out better 12 times. The exceptions are well-known to most: Anquan Boldin, certainly, was much better right from the get-go than Bryant Johnson. And Mike Williams, though not a star, had a better career than Arrelious Benn.

In fairness, in many of those cases the wide receiver selected first was taken 2-3 rounds earlier. Lee, in contrast, was selected just 22 picks before Robinson; not as a big a gap. Still, Robinson will be bucking the history if he does indeed turn out better.

The 30 pairs from the last 15 years are presented below; the superior wideout of the duo is listed in bold.

SAME TEAM, TWO WRs IN FIRST FOUR ROUNDS, 2000-2015
YearRdPkPlayerTeamCollege
2014239Marqise LeeJac.Southern California
2014261Allen RobinsonJac.Penn State
20144104Jalen SaundersNYJOklahoma
20144115Shaq EvansNYJUCLA
2014242Jordan MatthewsPhil.Vanderbilt
2014386Josh HuffPhil.Oregon
2014245Paul RichardsonSea.Colorado
20144123Kevin NorwoodSea.Alabama
2013241Robert WoodsBuff.Southern California
2013378Marquise GoodwinBuff.Texas
2013259Aaron DobsonN.E.Marshall
20134102Josh Boyce N.E.Texas Christian
201318Tavon AustinSt.L.West Virginia
2013392Stedman BaileySt.L.West Virginia
2012368DeVier PoseyHou.Ohio State
20124121Keshawn MartinHou.Michigan State
20124118Jarius WrightMinn.Arkansas
20124134Greg ChildsMinn.Arkansas
2012233Brian QuickSt.L.Appalachian State (N.C.)
2012496Chris GivensSt.L.Wake Forest
2011258Torrey SmithBalt.Maryland
20114123Tandon DossBalt.Indiana
2010122Demaryius ThomasDen.Georgia Tech
2010387Eric DeckerDen.Minnesota
2010239Arrelious BennT.B.Illinois
20104101Mike WilliamsT.B.Syracuse
2009236Brian Robiskie Clev.Ohio State
2009250Mohamed Massaquoi Clev.Georgia
2009129Hakeem Nicks NYGNorth Carolina
2009385Ramses Barden NYGCal Poly-S.L.O.
200917Darrius Heyward-Bey Oak.Maryland
20094124Louis MurphyOak.Florida
2008246Jerome SimpsonCin.Coastal Carolina
2008397Andre CaldwellCin.Florida
2008233Donnie AverySt.L.Houston
20084128Keenan BurtonSt.L.Kentucky
2008234Devin ThomasWash.Michigan State
2008251Malcolm KellyWash.Oklahoma
2007245Dwayne JarrettCar.Southern California
20074118Ryne RobinsonCar.Miami (Ohio)
20064119Brandon MarshallDen.Central Florida
20064130Domenik HixonDen.Akron
2006252Greg JenningsG.B.Western Michigan
20064104Cory RodgersG.B.Texas Christian
2005368Courtney RobyTenn.Indiana
2005396Brandon JonesTenn.Oklahoma
200419Reggie WilliamsJac.Washington
20044120Ernest WilfordJac.Virginia Tech
2004131Rashaun WoodsS.F.Oklahoma State
2004377Derrick HamiltonS.F.Clemson
2003117Bryant JohnsonAriz.Penn State
2003254Anquan Boldin Ariz.Florida State
200014Peter WarrickCin.Florida State
2000366Ron DugansCin.Florida State
2000232Dennis NorthcuttClev.Arizona
2000379JaJuan DawsonClev.Tulane (La.)
2000236Todd PinkstonPhil.Southern Mississippi
2000499Gari ScottPhil.Michigan State
200018Plaxico BurressPitt.Michigan State
20004103Danny FarmerPitt.UCLA

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index