The other day we ran an item about Allen Robinson having a strong offseason. It's early, but based on what we've seen so far, he looks like a good bet to turn out as the better pro than Marqise Lee, who the Jaguars selected earlier in the same draft.
How often does that happen; that the wideout selected later by the same team turns out better than the one selected earlier? Not very often; usually, teams get it right with their scouting.
Since 2000, there have been 30 occasions where a team has selected two wide receivers in the first four rounds of the same draft. About half the time, not surprisingly, neither wide receiver makes much of an impact in the NFL. By our count, 15 of those pairs either didn't produce a single quality NFL starter, or it's too soon to tell (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey in St. Louis and Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood in Seattle; it's too early to say none of those guys will pan out).
Of the other 14 cases prior to Lee-Robinson, the wide receiver chosen first has turned out better 12 times. The exceptions are well-known to most: Anquan Boldin, certainly, was much better right from the get-go than Bryant Johnson. And Mike Williams, though not a star, had a better career than Arrelious Benn.
In fairness, in many of those cases the wide receiver selected first was taken 2-3 rounds earlier. Lee, in contrast, was selected just 22 picks before Robinson; not as a big a gap. Still, Robinson will be bucking the history if he does indeed turn out better.
The 30 pairs from the last 15 years are presented below; the superior wideout of the duo is listed in bold.
SAME TEAM, TWO WRs IN FIRST FOUR ROUNDS, 2000-2015 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Rd | Pk | Player | Team | College |
2014 | 2 | 39 | Marqise Lee | Jac. | Southern California |
2014 | 2 | 61 | Allen Robinson | Jac. | Penn State |
2014 | 4 | 104 | Jalen Saunders | NYJ | Oklahoma |
2014 | 4 | 115 | Shaq Evans | NYJ | UCLA |
2014 | 2 | 42 | Jordan Matthews | Phil. | Vanderbilt |
2014 | 3 | 86 | Josh Huff | Phil. | Oregon |
2014 | 2 | 45 | Paul Richardson | Sea. | Colorado |
2014 | 4 | 123 | Kevin Norwood | Sea. | Alabama |
2013 | 2 | 41 | Robert Woods | Buff. | Southern California |
2013 | 3 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin | Buff. | Texas |
2013 | 2 | 59 | Aaron Dobson | N.E. | Marshall |
2013 | 4 | 102 | Josh Boyce | N.E. | Texas Christian |
2013 | 1 | 8 | Tavon Austin | St.L. | West Virginia |
2013 | 3 | 92 | Stedman Bailey | St.L. | West Virginia |
2012 | 3 | 68 | DeVier Posey | Hou. | Ohio State |
2012 | 4 | 121 | Keshawn Martin | Hou. | Michigan State |
2012 | 4 | 118 | Jarius Wright | Minn. | Arkansas |
2012 | 4 | 134 | Greg Childs | Minn. | Arkansas |
2012 | 2 | 33 | Brian Quick | St.L. | Appalachian State (N.C.) |
2012 | 4 | 96 | Chris Givens | St.L. | Wake Forest |
2011 | 2 | 58 | Torrey Smith | Balt. | Maryland |
2011 | 4 | 123 | Tandon Doss | Balt. | Indiana |
2010 | 1 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas | Den. | Georgia Tech |
2010 | 3 | 87 | Eric Decker | Den. | Minnesota |
2010 | 2 | 39 | Arrelious Benn | T.B. | Illinois |
2010 | 4 | 101 | Mike Williams | T.B. | Syracuse |
2009 | 2 | 36 | Brian Robiskie | Clev. | Ohio State |
2009 | 2 | 50 | Mohamed Massaquoi | Clev. | Georgia |
2009 | 1 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | North Carolina |
2009 | 3 | 85 | Ramses Barden | NYG | Cal Poly-S.L.O. |
2009 | 1 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Oak. | Maryland |
2009 | 4 | 124 | Louis Murphy | Oak. | Florida |
2008 | 2 | 46 | Jerome Simpson | Cin. | Coastal Carolina |
2008 | 3 | 97 | Andre Caldwell | Cin. | Florida |
2008 | 2 | 33 | Donnie Avery | St.L. | Houston |
2008 | 4 | 128 | Keenan Burton | St.L. | Kentucky |
2008 | 2 | 34 | Devin Thomas | Wash. | Michigan State |
2008 | 2 | 51 | Malcolm Kelly | Wash. | Oklahoma |
2007 | 2 | 45 | Dwayne Jarrett | Car. | Southern California |
2007 | 4 | 118 | Ryne Robinson | Car. | Miami (Ohio) |
2006 | 4 | 119 | Brandon Marshall | Den. | Central Florida |
2006 | 4 | 130 | Domenik Hixon | Den. | Akron |
2006 | 2 | 52 | Greg Jennings | G.B. | Western Michigan |
2006 | 4 | 104 | Cory Rodgers | G.B. | Texas Christian |
2005 | 3 | 68 | Courtney Roby | Tenn. | Indiana |
2005 | 3 | 96 | Brandon Jones | Tenn. | Oklahoma |
2004 | 1 | 9 | Reggie Williams | Jac. | Washington |
2004 | 4 | 120 | Ernest Wilford | Jac. | Virginia Tech |
2004 | 1 | 31 | Rashaun Woods | S.F. | Oklahoma State |
2004 | 3 | 77 | Derrick Hamilton | S.F. | Clemson |
2003 | 1 | 17 | Bryant Johnson | Ariz. | Penn State |
2003 | 2 | 54 | Anquan Boldin | Ariz. | Florida State |
2000 | 1 | 4 | Peter Warrick | Cin. | Florida State |
2000 | 3 | 66 | Ron Dugans | Cin. | Florida State |
2000 | 2 | 32 | Dennis Northcutt | Clev. | Arizona |
2000 | 3 | 79 | JaJuan Dawson | Clev. | Tulane (La.) |
2000 | 2 | 36 | Todd Pinkston | Phil. | Southern Mississippi |
2000 | 4 | 99 | Gari Scott | Phil. | Michigan State |
2000 | 1 | 8 | Plaxico Burress | Pitt. | Michigan State |
2000 | 4 | 103 | Danny Farmer | Pitt. | UCLA |
--Andy Richardson