I have mentioned regularly over the last few months that I don’t like that Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill and Derek can’t or won’t throw the ball downfield. I have nothing against 5-yard dumpoffs to running backs, but at some point in games you need to uncork some deep balls. It’s part of the game.
So I thought I would look more carefully at the numbers and confirm (or disprove) the opinion that these guys aren’t pushing the ball downfield enough. With running backs and receivers, we look at how often the player has gains over 20 yards and 40 yards. Why not the same with passers?
Turns out if you take the number of 40-yard completions by each quarterback, then divide by his total number of pass attempts, Smith and Tannehill are the bottom two guys. They each started all 16 games last year, and they combined for only 7 40-yard pass plays. This is one of the reasons I am skeptical of how successful the new receivers might be there – Jeremy Maclin in Kansas City, and DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings in Miami.
Derek Carr is also near the bottom, but his case is a little different. He’s been in the league for only one year, so with him, I’m not sure how much of it is the player. Maybe more of his troubles can be attributed to a lesser supporting cast and the structure of the offense. They’re switching offenses this season, so if he struggles again, then we can more safely conclude that he’s not a downfield passer.
Two other names caught my eye: Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. They both have cannon arms, but they didn’t have much success getting the ball downfield. That could be a deal with those guys where their mobility kind of works against them. They’re conditioned to take off and run when things start breaking down – that’s their instinct – and that’s maybe worked against their ability to stick with and execute longer pass plays. They also didn’t have great, speedy receivers last year – Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, Kelvin Benjamin and Jerricho Cotchery. That’s why I didn’t like Carolina’s decision to drafted yet another big, slower receiver in the second round (Devin Funchess).
At the other end of the scale, the top two gunners were the two Washington guys, Kirk Cousins and Robert Griffin III. Those guys are more likely than other quarterbacks to be trying to go deep. Also up there, I see Aaron Rodgers, Zach Mettenberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ben Roethlisberger.
| PERCENTAGE OF 40-YARD COMPLETIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Att | 40+ | Pct |
| Kirk Cousins | 204 | 8 | 3.92% |
| Robert Griffin III | 214 | 8 | 3.74% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 520 | 15 | 2.88% |
| Zach Mettenberger | 179 | 5 | 2.79% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 312 | 8 | 2.56% |
| Drew Stanton | 240 | 6 | 2.50% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 608 | 15 | 2.47% |
| Andrew Luck | 616 | 15 | 2.44% |
| Tony Romo | 435 | 10 | 2.30% |
| Brian Hoyer | 438 | 10 | 2.28% |
| Nick Foles | 311 | 7 | 2.25% |
| Mark Sanchez | 309 | 6 | 1.94% |
| Geno Smith | 367 | 7 | 1.91% |
| Peyton Manning | 597 | 11 | 1.84% |
| Josh McCown | 327 | 6 | 1.83% |
| Matthew Stafford | 602 | 11 | 1.83% |
| Russell Wilson | 452 | 8 | 1.77% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 402 | 7 | 1.74% |
| Eli Manning | 601 | 10 | 1.66% |
| Philip Rivers | 570 | 9 | 1.58% |
| Kyle Orton | 447 | 7 | 1.57% |
| Drew Brees | 659 | 10 | 1.52% |
| Mike Glennon | 203 | 3 | 1.48% |
| Andy Dalton | 481 | 7 | 1.46% |
| Jay Cutler | 561 | 8 | 1.43% |
| Austin Davis | 284 | 4 | 1.41% |
| Tom Brady | 582 | 8 | 1.37% |
| Carson Palmer | 224 | 3 | 1.34% |
| Shaun Hill | 229 | 3 | 1.31% |
| Matt Ryan | 628 | 8 | 1.27% |
| Joe Flacco | 554 | 7 | 1.26% |
| Blake Bortles | 475 | 6 | 1.26% |
| Derek Carr | 599 | 7 | 1.17% |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 185 | 2 | 1.08% |
| Colin Kaepernick | 478 | 5 | 1.05% |
| Cam Newton | 448 | 4 | .89% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 590 | 4 | .68% |
| Alex Smith | 464 | 3 | .65% |
It’s also possible to look instead at 20-yard completions. There are more 20-yard plays, so there’s more data to work with. It’s less subject to chance. But there are a greater percentage of throws, I think, where a running back turns a short flip into a 25-yard gainer, and I wanted to measure the likelihood of the guy successfully connecting on a long bomb.
In fairness, I must admit that I have also bashed Teddy Bridgewater’s ability to throw deep passes. I saw him miss on a couple of key ones last year – one at Buffalo and one at Miami where he simply didn’t seem to have enough arm. But Bridgewater grades out pretty well in these charts – better than Blake Bortles, who had a lot of success driving it downfield early last year but then tailed off.
| PERCENTAGE OF 20-YARD COMPLETIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Att | 20+ | Pct |
| Kirk Cousins | 204 | 27 | 13.24% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 312 | 38 | 12.18% |
| Drew Stanton | 240 | 29 | 12.08% |
| Russell Wilson | 452 | 54 | 11.95% |
| Andrew Luck | 616 | 73 | 11.85% |
| Zach Mettenberger | 179 | 21 | 11.73% |
| Brian Hoyer | 438 | 51 | 11.64% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 520 | 59 | 11.35% |
| Mike Glennon | 203 | 23 | 11.33% |
| Tony Romo | 435 | 49 | 11.26% |
| Peyton Manning | 597 | 66 | 11.06% |
| Mark Sanchez | 309 | 34 | 11.00% |
| Colin Kaepernick | 478 | 48 | 10.04% |
| Philip Rivers | 570 | 57 | 10.00% |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 185 | 18 | 9.73% |
| Shaun Hill | 229 | 22 | 9.61% |
| Matt Ryan | 628 | 60 | 9.55% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 402 | 38 | 9.45% |
| Nick Foles | 311 | 29 | 9.32% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 608 | 55 | 9.05% |
| Joe Flacco | 554 | 50 | 9.03% |
| Geno Smith | 367 | 33 | 8.99% |
| Matthew Stafford | 602 | 53 | 8.80% |
| Kyle Orton | 447 | 39 | 8.72% |
| Eli Manning | 601 | 52 | 8.65% |
| Alex Smith | 464 | 40 | 8.62% |
| Josh McCown | 327 | 28 | 8.56% |
| Carson Palmer | 224 | 19 | 8.48% |
| Robert Griffin III | 214 | 18 | 8.41% |
| Cam Newton | 448 | 37 | 8.26% |
| Drew Brees | 659 | 52 | 7.89% |
| Blake Bortles | 475 | 37 | 7.79% |
| Tom Brady | 582 | 44 | 7.56% |
| Austin Davis | 284 | 21 | 7.39% |
| Jay Cutler | 561 | 39 | 6.95% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 590 | 41 | 6.95% |
| Andy Dalton | 481 | 33 | 6.86% |
| Derek Carr | 599 | 28 | 4.67% |
—Ian Allan