A year ago, nine rookie running backs rushed for at least 500 yards. Based on recent history, what can we expect from those backs in 2015, their second seasons in the league?
The odds of them putting up better or at least comparable rushing numbers in their second season appear to be about 50-50. Since 2000, 61 other running backs have rushed for at least 500 yards in their rookie seasons. About half of those players (30) have come back and rushed for either more yardage in year 2 or declined minimally (10 percent or less).
The other 31 players have declined by 18 percent or more, with close to half (14) experiencing at least a 50 percent decline. Based on that, it looks reasonable to suppose that 4-5 of those rookie will post similar or better numbers in 2015, while the others will decline -- and a couple of those guys dramatically.
The last 61 rookie runners over 500 yards, sorted by percent increase or decrease in year 2, are presented below.
ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, YEAR 2, 2000-2014 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Team | RuYds (1) | RuYds (2) | % change |
2005 | Frank Gore | S.F. | 608 | 1695 | 179% |
2001 | Travis Henry | Buff. | 729 | 1438 | 97% |
2001 | Michael Bennett | Minn. | 682 | 1296 | 90% |
2009 | LeSean McCoy | Phil. | 637 | 1080 | 70% |
2008 | Chris Johnson | Tenn. | 1228 | 2006 | 63% |
2010 | Ryan Mathews | S.D. | 678 | 1091 | 61% |
2013 | LeVeon Bell | Pitt. | 860 | 1361 | 58% |
2004 | Steven Jackson | St.L. | 673 | 1046 | 55% |
2002 | T.J. Duckett | Atl. | 507 | 779 | 54% |
2006 | DeAngelo Williams | Car. | 501 | 717 | 43% |
2009 | Shonn Greene | NYJ | 540 | 766 | 42% |
2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson | S.D. | 1236 | 1683 | 36% |
2008 | Jonathan Stewart | Car. | 836 | 1133 | 36% |
2001 | Kevan Barlow | S.F. | 512 | 675 | 32% |
2007 | Adrian Peterson | Minn. | 1341 | 1760 | 31% |
2005 | Marion Barber | Dall. | 538 | 654 | 22% |
2004 | Julius Jones | Dall. | 819 | 993 | 21% |
2003 | Domanick Davis | Hou. | 1031 | 1188 | 15% |
2006 | Laurence Maroney | N.E. | 745 | 835 | 12% |
2005 | Ronnie Brown | Mia. | 907 | 1008 | 11% |
2002 | Clinton Portis | Den. | 1508 | 1591 | 6% |
2006 | Reggie Bush | N.O. | 565 | 581 | 3% |
2013 | Andre Ellington | Ariz. | 652 | 660 | 1% |
2006 | Joseph Addai | Ind. | 1081 | 1072 | -1% |
2013 | Giovani Bernard | Cin. | 695 | 680 | -2% |
2006 | Jerious Norwood | Atl. | 633 | 613 | -3% |
2013 | Eddie Lacy | G.B. | 1178 | 1139 | -3% |
2003 | Onterrio Smith | Minn. | 579 | 544 | -6% |
2007 | Marshawn Lynch | Buff. | 1115 | 1036 | -7% |
2000 | Ron Dayne | NYG | 770 | 690 | -10% |
2009 | Knowshon Moreno | Den. | 947 | 779 | -18% |
2012 | Bernard Pierce | Balt. | 532 | 436 | -18% |
2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jac. | 941 | 768 | -18% |
2012 | Alfred Morris | Wash. | 1613 | 1275 | -21% |
2010 | LeGarrette Blount | Tenn. | 1007 | 781 | -22% |
2008 | Kevin Smith | Det. | 976 | 747 | -23% |
2008 | Matt Forte | Chi. | 1238 | 929 | -25% |
2011 | DeMarco Murray | Dall. | 897 | 663 | -26% |
2010 | Jahvid Best | Det. | 555 | 390 | -30% |
2005 | Cadillac Williams | T.B. | 1178 | 798 | -32% |
2002 | William Green | Clev. | 887 | 559 | -37% |
2001 | Anthony Thomas | Chi. | 1183 | 721 | -39% |
2004 | Kevin Jones | Det. | 1133 | 664 | -41% |
2011 | Daniel Thomas | Mia. | 581 | 325 | -44% |
2012 | Bryce Brown | Phil. | 564 | 314 | -44% |
2006 | Leon Washington | NYJ | 650 | 353 | -46% |
2009 | Beanie Wells | Ariz. | 793 | 397 | -50% |
2012 | Trent Richardson | Clev. | 950 | 458 | -52% |
2000 | Mike Anderson | Den. | 1487 | 678 | -54% |
2005 | Samkon Gado | K.C. | 582 | 210 | -64% |
2008 | Steve Slaton | Hou. | 1282 | 437 | -66% |
2012 | Doug Martin | T.B. | 1454 | 456 | -69% |
2013 | Montee Ball | Den. | 559 | 172 | -69% |
2013 | Zac Stacy | St.L. | 973 | 293 | -70% |
2001 | James Jackson | Clev. | 554 | 54 | -90% |
2012 | Vick Ballard | Ind. | 814 | 63 | -92% |
2002 | Jonathan Wells | Hou. | 529 | 14 | -97% |
2000 | Travis Prentice | Clev. | 512 | 13 | -97% |
2011 | Roy Helu | Wash. | 640 | 2 | -100% |
2000 | Jamal Lewis | Balt. | 1364 | 0 | -100% |
2001 | Correll Buckhalter | Phil. | 586 | 0 | -100% |
2014 | Jeremy Hill | Cin. | 1124 | ? | ? |
2014 | Tre Mason | St.L. | 765 | ? | ? |
2014 | Andre Williams | NYG | 721 | ? | ? |
2014 | Terrance West | Clev. | 673 | ? | ? |
2014 | Isaiah Crowell | Clev. | 607 | ? | ? |
2014 | Branden Oliver | S.D. | 582 | ? | ? |
2014 | Bishop Sankey | Tenn. | 569 | ? | ? |
2014 | Jerick McKinnon | Minn. | 538 | ? | ? |
2014 | Alfred Blue | Hou. | 528 | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson