It's that time of year where you hear some optimistic talk around young players, including those selected in later rounds who may find themselves in line for a larger role. Think second-year wideout Devin Street in Dallas, who's filling in for Dez Bryant, and Jeff Janis in Green Bay, on the radar in dynasty leagues. Both were selected from the fifth round on in the 2014 draft. Perhaps one of them will be the next Antonio Brown or Pierre Garcon, both former sixth-round picks.
Realistically, though, the odds are firmly against either player doing anything of note in the NFL. Over the last decade (2005-2014), there have been 133 wide receivers drafted from the 5th through 7th rounds. By our count, 15 of those wideouts (about 11 percent) have gone on to enjoy some degree of NFL success, which we'll define as having a 500-yard receiving season at some point. The jury is still out on some of the more recent picks, but about a 1 in 9 chance of maybe being a viable starter; that's what you're looking at.
From the 2015 draft, the most interesting late-round picks include Kenny Bell (Tampa Bay), Tre McBride (Tennessee) and Darren Waller (Baltimore). Those players will be beating considerable odds to develop into noteworthy players.
We count nearly half as many undrafted wideouts (7) in that 10-year span to develop into quality starters at some point as 5th-7th-round picks. You're not much more likely to find a future starter in the last three rounds than to sign somebody off the street before training camp.
Late-round picks and notable undrafted wideouts from the last 10 years are presented below, with the best of those players listed in bold.
LATE-ROUND AND NOTABLE UNDRAFTED WRs, 2005-2014 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Rd | Player | Team |
2014 | 5 | Devin Street | Cowboys |
2014 | 5 | Jared Abbrederis | Packers |
2014 | 5 | Ryan Grant | Washington |
2014 | 6 | Robert Herron | Buccaneers |
2014 | 6 | Walt Powell | Cardinals |
2014 | 6 | Matt Hazel | Dolphins |
2014 | 6 | Quincy Enunwa | Jets |
2014 | 6 | T.J. Jones | Lions |
2014 | 7 | James Wright | Bengals |
2014 | 7 | Tevin Reese | Chargers |
2014 | 7 | Jeff Janis | Packers |
2014 | 7 | Jeremy Gallon | Patriots |
2014 | 7 | Mike Campanaro | Ravens |
2014 | U | Taylor Gabriel | Browns |
2014 | U | Allen Hurns | Jaguars |
2014 | U | Philly Brown | Panthers |
2013 | 5 | Kenny Stills | Saints |
2013 | 5 | Tavarres King | Broncos |
2013 | 6 | Corey Fuller | Lions |
2013 | 6 | Ryan Swope | Cardinals |
2013 | 6 | Justin Brown | Steelers |
2013 | 6 | Alan Bonner | Texans |
2013 | 6 | Cobi Hamilton | Bengals |
2013 | 7 | Brice Butler | Raiders |
2013 | 7 | Charles Johnson | Packers |
2013 | 7 | Kevin Dorsey | Packers |
2013 | 7 | Marquess Wilson | Bears |
2013 | 7 | Aaron Mellette | Ravens |
2013 | U | Marlon Brown | Ravens |
2013 | U | Kenbrell Thompkins | Patriots |
2012 | 5 | Danny Coale | Cowboys |
2012 | 5 | Marvin Jones | Bengals |
2012 | 5 | Juron Criner | Raiders |
2012 | 6 | B.J. Cunningham | Dolphins |
2012 | 6 | Marvin McNutt | Eagles |
2012 | 6 | Tommy Streeter | Ravens |
2012 | 6 | LaVon Brazill | Colts |
2012 | 7 | Rishard Matthews | Dolphins |
2012 | 7 | Toney Clemons | Steelers |
2012 | 7 | Jeremy Ebert | Patriots |
2012 | 7 | Junior Hemingway | Kansas City |
2012 | 7 | Jordan White | Jets |
2012 | U | Rod Streater | Raiders |
2012 | U | Jermaine Kearse | Seahawks |
2011 | 5 | Kealoha Pilares | Panthers |
2011 | 5 | Denarius Moore | Raiders |
2011 | 5 | Jeremy Kerley | Jets |
2011 | 5 | Niles Paul | Washington |
2011 | 6 | Ryan Whalen | Bengals |
2011 | 6 | Dwayne Harris | Cowboys |
2011 | 6 | Aldrick Robinson | Washington |
2011 | 6 | Ronald Johnson | 49ers |
2011 | 7 | Scotty McKnight | Jets |
2011 | 7 | Stephen Burton | Vikings |
2011 | 7 | David Ausberry | Raiders |
2011 | 7 | DeMarco Sampson | Cardinals |
2011 | U | Doug Baldwin | Seahawks |
2010 | 5 | David Reed | Ravens |
2010 | 5 | Riley Cooper | Eagles |
2010 | 5 | Kerry Meier | Falcons |
2010 | 6 | Carlton Mitchell | Browns |
2010 | 6 | Dezmon Briscoe | Bengals |
2010 | 6 | Antonio Brown | Steelers |
2010 | 6 | David Gettis | Panthers |
2010 | 6 | Kyle Williams | 49ers |
2010 | 7 | Terrence Austin | Washington |
2010 | 7 | Marc Mariani | Titans |
2010 | 7 | Jameson Konz | Seahawks |
2010 | 7 | Tim Toone | Lions |
2010 | U | Danario Alexander | Rams |
2009 | 5 | Johnny Knox | Bears |
2009 | 5 | Kenny McKinley | Broncos |
2009 | 5 | Jarett Dillard | Jaguars |
2009 | 5 | Brooks Foster | Rams |
2009 | 6 | Quinten Lawrence | Kansas City |
2009 | 6 | Brandon Gibson | Eagles |
2009 | 6 | Dominique Edison | Titans |
2009 | 7 | Demetrius Byrd | Chargers |
2009 | 7 | Manuel Johnson | Cowboys |
2009 | 7 | Julian Edelman | Patriots |
2009 | 7 | Sammie Stroughter | Buccaneers |
2009 | 7 | Jake O'Connell | Kansas City |
2009 | 7 | Marko Mitchell | Washington |
2009 | 7 | Derek Kinder | Bears |
2009 | 7 | Freddie Brown | Bengals |
2009 | 7 | Tiquan Underwood | Jaguars |
2008 | 5 | Kenneth Moore | Lions |
2008 | 5 | Matt Slater | Patriots |
2008 | 6 | Marcus Henry | Jets |
2008 | 6 | Josh Morgan | 49ers |
2008 | 6 | Kevin Robinson | Kansas City |
2008 | 6 | Paul Hubbard | Browns |
2008 | 6 | Jaymar Johnson | Vikings |
2008 | 6 | Pierre Garcon | Colts |
2008 | 7 | Justin Harper | Ravens |
2008 | 7 | Brett Swain | Packers |
2008 | 7 | Steve Johnson | Bills |
2008 | 7 | Chaz Schilens | Raiders |
2008 | 7 | Adrian Arrington | Saints |
2008 | 7 | Mario Urrutia | Bengals |
2008 | 7 | Marcus Monk | Bears |
2007 | 5 | Steve Breaston | Cardinals |
2007 | 5 | Aundrae Allison | Vikings |
2007 | 5 | David Clowney | Packers |
2007 | 5 | Roy Hall | Colts |
2007 | 5 | Legedu Naanee | Chargers |
2007 | 6 | Joel Filani | Titans |
2007 | 6 | Courtney Taylor | Seahawks |
2007 | 6 | Jordan Kent | Seahawks |
2007 | 7 | Dallas Baker | Steelers |
2007 | 7 | John Broussard | Jaguars |
2007 | 7 | Chandler Williams | Vikings |
2007 | 7 | Syndric Steptoe | Browns |
2007 | 7 | Chansi Stuckey | Jets |
2007 | 7 | Derek Stanley | Rams |
2007 | 7 | Johnathan Holland | Raiders |
2006 | 5 | Marques Hagans | Rams |
2006 | 5 | Jeremy Bloom | Eagles |
2006 | 6 | Mike Hass | Saints |
2006 | 6 | Jonathan Orr | Titans |
2006 | 6 | Adam Jennings | Falcons |
2006 | 6 | Jeff Webb | Kansas City |
2006 | 7 | Ethan Kilmer | Bengals |
2006 | 7 | Todd Watkins | Cardinals |
2006 | 7 | Bennie Brazell | Bengals |
2006 | 7 | Devin Aromashodu | Dolphins |
2006 | 7 | Ben Obomanu | Seahawks |
2006 | 7 | David Anderson | Texans |
2006 | 7 | Marques Colston | Saints |
2006 | 7 | Kevin McMahan | Raiders |
2005 | 5 | Airese Currie | Bears |
2005 | 5 | Larry Brackins | Buccaneers |
2005 | 5 | Rasheed Marshall | 49ers |
2005 | 6 | Chad Owens | Jaguars |
2005 | 6 | Tab Perry | Bengals |
2005 | 6 | Dante Ridgeway | Rams |
2005 | 6 | Craig Bragg | Packers |
2005 | 7 | Marcus Maxwell | 49ers |
2005 | 7 | Paris Warren | Buccaneers |
2005 | 7 | LeRon McCoy | Cardinals |
2005 | 7 | Harry Williams | Jets |
2005 | 7 | J.R. Russell | Buccaneers |
--Andy Richardson