Craig Leedy posed an interesting question yesterday on the website. He wondered if teams with good defenses tended to attempt more field goals – controlling field position and whatnot, the theory. It’s one of those ideas that gets kicked around as a truth, but seldom does anybody actually get the data out and see if it’s actually true. So I looked into it some.
I tweaked the focus of the question a little. Leedy wondered if those teams attempted more field goals. I changed it to whether they SCORED more kicking points. I think that’s the interest of most fantasy leagues: not how many field goals a team attempts, but how many actual kicking points it scores, including both extra points and successful field goals.
And rather than just looking at defenses, I am contrasting them to offenses.
Over the last five years, there have been 160 NFL teams. Here are the 20 that had the best defenses (allowed the fewest points). These teams averaged 126 kicking points per season.
TOP 20 DEFENSES SINCE 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pts | PK |
2011 | Pittsburgh | 227 | 105 |
2011 | San Francisco | 229 | 166 |
2013 | Seattle | 231 | 143 |
2010 | Pittsburgh | 232 | 125 |
2010 | Green Bay | 240 | 112 |
2013 | Carolina | 241 | 114 |
2012 | Seattle | 245 | 118 |
2014 | Seattle | 254 | 134 |
2011 | Baltimore | 266 | 130 |
2010 | Baltimore | 270 | 117 |
2013 | San Francisco | 272 | 140 |
2012 | San Francisco | 273 | 131 |
2012 | Chicago | 277 | 121 |
2011 | Houston | 278 | 135 |
2014 | Kansas City | 281 | 113 |
2014 | Detroit | 282 | 107 |
2010 | Chicago | 286 | 110 |
2010 | Atlanta | 288 | 128 |
2012 | Denver | 289 | 133 |
2014 | Buffalo | 289 | 133 |
Here, in contrast are the top 20 offenses of the last five years (again, using points scored). This group averaged almost 137 kicking points in these season – almost 11 points more.
TOP 20 OFFENSES SINCE 2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pts | PK |
2013 | Denver | 606 | 150 |
2011 | Green Bay | 560 | 140 |
2012 | New England | 557 | 153 |
2011 | New Orleans | 547 | 147 |
2010 | New England | 518 | 128 |
2011 | New England | 513 | 143 |
2014 | Green Bay | 486 | 134 |
2014 | Denver | 482 | 128 |
2012 | Denver | 481 | 133 |
2011 | Detroit | 474 | 126 |
2014 | Philadelphia | 474 | 150 |
2014 | New England | 468 | 156 |
2014 | Dallas | 467 | 131 |
2012 | New Orleans | 461 | 111 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 458 | 140 |
2013 | Chicago | 445 | 123 |
2013 | New England | 444 | 158 |
2013 | Philadelphia | 442 | 114 |
2010 | San Diego | 441 | 129 |
2010 | Philadelphia | 439 | 143 |
2013 | Dallas | 439 | 131 |
And here are all teams that have scored at least 130 kicking points in the last five years, along with the number of points it scored (“Off”) and allowed (“Def”). If a team ranked in the top 20 percent (top 32 of 160) it’s in bold. And in these teams, there are 20 such offenses but only 13 of those defenses.
I’ve also got the bottom 20 percent teams in there. For that group, there are three defenses (three really bad defenses). But there are no teams that finished in the bottom 20 percent in scoring but still made it to 130 points in kicking.
Offenses, it seems, are a better indicator for kickers than defenses.
TEAMS SCORING 130 KICKING POINTS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Def | Off | PK |
2011 | San Francisco | 229 | 380 | 166 |
2013 | New England | 338 | 444 | 158 |
2014 | New England | 313 | 468 | 156 |
2012 | New England | 331 | 557 | 153 |
2014 | Philadelphia | 400 | 474 | 150 |
2013 | Denver | 399 | 606 | 150 |
2011 | New Orleans | 339 | 547 | 147 |
2012 | NY Giants | 344 | 429 | 145 |
2013 | San Diego | 348 | 396 | 144 |
2012 | Atlanta | 299 | 419 | 143 |
2013 | Seattle | 231 | 417 | 143 |
2010 | Philadelphia | 377 | 439 | 143 |
2011 | New England | 342 | 513 | 143 |
2010 | Oakland | 371 | 410 | 142 |
2013 | Green Bay | • 428 | 417 | 141 |
2012 | Minnesota | 348 | 379 | 141 |
2013 | San Francisco | 272 | 406 | 140 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 369 | 458 | 140 |
2011 | Green Bay | 359 | 560 | 140 |
2013 | Baltimore | 352 | 320 | 140 |
2013 | Indianapolis | 336 | 391 | 139 |
2012 | Houston | 331 | 416 | 138 |
2011 | Houston | 278 | 381 | 135 |
2011 | Dallas | 347 | 369 | 135 |
2014 | Seattle | 254 | 394 | 134 |
2012 | Detroit | • 437 | 372 | 134 |
2014 | Green Bay | 348 | 486 | 134 |
2014 | Buffalo | 289 | 343 | 133 |
2012 | Denver | 289 | 481 | 133 |
2012 | Cincinnati | 320 | 391 | 133 |
2014 | Pittsburgh | 368 | 436 | 132 |
2012 | Baltimore | 344 | 398 | 132 |
2011 | Cincinnati | 323 | 344 | 132 |
2011 | Miami | 313 | 329 | 131 |
2012 | San Francisco | 273 | 397 | 131 |
2013 | Dallas | • 432 | 439 | 131 |
2013 | Buffalo | 388 | 339 | 131 |
2014 | Dallas | 352 | 467 | 131 |
2014 | Houston | 307 | 372 | 130 |
2011 | Baltimore | 266 | 378 | 130 |
—Ian Allan