With Adrian Peterson, a big component of his projection is settling on his production in the passing game. While it’s run to kick around whether he’ll run for 1,200, 1,500 or 1,800 yards, his production as a receiver will have a huge factor on his value (especially in PPR formats).
Peterson hasn’t been a good pass catcher in recent years. In both the 2012 and 2013 seasons, he averaged under 6 yards per catch. That’s unusually bad – about the worst among all starting tailbacks.
On the flip side, Norv Turner has a nice track record with tailbacks and dumpoff passes. Turner has been in the league forever, and he’s had a bunch of running backs catch over 50 passes in a season. In half of his last 14 seasons, Turner’s featured tailback has also caught at least 50 passes.
That doesn’t include Matt Asiata, who caught 44 balls last year for the Vikings despite starting for only most of the season.
Most of those big catch guys, however, came about 10 years in the past – LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, LaMont Jordan and Frank Gore. In more recent years, Turner has been more open to the idea of working in a second back to catch passes. Until last year, in fact, Turner five years in a row had a second running back catch at least 45 passes (that is, not the team’s leading rusher but some other running back).
In our eyes, about 30-40 receptions looks like the right number for Peterson.
| RECEIVING PRODUCTION OF TURNER'S LEADING RUSHERS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | No-Rec | Other RB |
| 1995 | Terry Allen, Wash. | 1,309 | 31-232 | |
| 1996 | Terry Allen, Wash. | 1,353 | 32-194 | |
| 1997 | Stephen Davis, Wash. | 567 | 18-134 | |
| 1998 | Terry Allen, Wash. | 700 | 17-128 | |
| 1999 | Stephen Davis, Wash. | 1,405 | 23-111 | |
| 2000 | Stephen Davis, Wash. | 1,318 | 33-313 | |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,236 | 59-367 | |
| 2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,853 | 47-363 | |
| 2003 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 1,372 | 50-351 | |
| 2004 | Amos Zereoue, Oak. | 425 | 39-284 | |
| 2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 1,025 | 70-563 | |
| 2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,695 | 61-485 | |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,474 | 60-475 | |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,110 | 52-426 | |
| 2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 730 | 20-154 | Sproles 45 rec |
| 2010 | Mike Tolbert, S.D. | 735 | 25-216 | Sproles 59 rec |
| 2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1,091 | 50-455 | Tolbert 54 rec |
| 2012 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 707 | 39-252 | R.Brown 49 rec |
| 2013 | Willis McGahee, Clev. | 377 | 8-20 | Ogbonnaya 48 rec |
| 2014 | Matt Asiata, Minn. | 570 | 44-312 | |
—Ian Allan