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Defensive Notes

Projected Takeaways

Seahawks, Bills look best

Maybe some people put together defensive rankings largely by feel, reputation, or how teams did a year ago. If you're in a draft where, say, San Francisco goes early on, or Seattle gets taken four rounds earlier than every other defense (even if points allowed isn't part of the scoring system), you can question how those defenses are being ranked.

Here, we project all the numbers for each team, and player, throw them into a spreadsheet, and calculate the rankings based on scoring system formula. See what comes up. Over the remainder of the preseason and occasionally during the season, we'll take a look at those actual numbers. Subscribers can download this file each week here at the website.

A year ago NFL teams averaged 24 takeaways -- 14 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries. That's four straight seasons of 24-25, which is an overall decline. The number used to be fixed at about 28-29 each season. Fumble recoveries are down slightly, but the biggest difference is in interceptions, down from almost 17 per year to 14.

Several factors here, including rule changes that benefit quarterbacks, more short passing, and maybe coaching staffs being less tolerant of turnovers or quarterbacks just being more careful with the football.

In any case, if you can find a defense that does do well in interceptions -- filled with opportunistic or sticky fingered players in the secondary -- you'll have an edge on takeaways.

Our current projections in this area are below. Seattle, Houston and three AFC East teams look best, with Denver and Green Bay also faring well. The Seahawks have elite personnel in the secondary. Buffalo has the great pass rush that helps force opponents into mistakes. Houston, with J.J. Watt, ranked 2nd in fumbles last season.

PROJECTED TAKEAWAYS, 2015
TeamFumIntTotal
Seattle 10.518.529.0
Buffalo 11.017.528.5
Houston 12.016.528.5
NY Jets11.017.528.5
New England 11.516.528.0
Denver10.516.527.0
Green Bay 10.017.027.0
Carolina12.015.027.0
St. Louis 12.014.526.5
Miami 10.516.026.5
Detroit 10.016.526.5
Cincinnati9.517.026.5
Philadelphia11.015.026.0
Baltimore 11.015.026.0
Cleveland 9.516.526.0
Kansas City 10.515.025.5
Dallas9.516.025.5
Arizona 9.515.525.0
San Diego 10.015.025.0
Minnesota 9.514.524.0
Indianapolis9.514.524.0
Tampa Bay 9.514.524.0
NY Giants9.015.024.0
Chicago 9.514.023.5
Atlanta 9.014.523.5
San Francisco 9.013.522.5
New Orleans 9.013.022.0
Pittsburgh9.511.020.5
Tennessee 8.012.520.5
Washington10.010.020.0
Oakland 8.511.019.5
Jacksonville9.010.019.0

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index