Tyler Lockett returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Denver. Kenjon Barner has returned punts for touchdowns in both games. How much meaning should we attach to such events? Should Seattle and Philadelphia now be projected to rank among the top 5 teams for kick returns? Or is this just chance?
There has been some correlation between preseason and regular with kick returns in the past. In the 2013 season, for example, it was very apparent Kansas City would be good on kick returns, and it came through with 4 TDs on those plays in the regular season. And the Eagles last year had a pair of kickoff return touchdowns in the preseason, then put up 4 in the regular season.
But let’s expand the scope and look at it a little more closely.
I will treat punt returns and kickoff returns separately.
In the last five years, 20 teams have returned punts for touchdowns in the preseason. Only seven of those teams then also returned a punt for a touchdown in the real games. So that one’s a loser. With that group of 20 teams, the payoff (on average) was .45 of touchdown on punt returns in the regular season. The teams that did not score on punt returns in the practice games averaged .57 TDs on such plays, per season. They were about 25 percent better.
On this chart below, the “average” shows the average number of touchdowns scored on punt returns by the teams that did not score preseason touchdowns on punt returns.
| PRESEASON PUNT RETURNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | TD | Avg |
| 2010 | Washington | 0 | .79 |
| 2010 | St. Louis | 0 | .79 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | 1 | .79 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 0 | .79 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 0 | .79 |
| 2011 | Tennessee | 1 | .64 |
| 2011 | New Orleans | 1 | .64 |
| 2011 | Washington | 0 | .64 |
| 2011 | Miami | 0 | .64 |
| 2012 | Tennessee | 3 | .54 |
| 2012 | Houston | 0 | .54 |
| 2012 | Washington | 0 | .54 |
| 2012 | Seattle | 0 | .54 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 1 | .41 |
| 2013 | Baltimore | 1 | .41 |
| 2013 | Washington | 0 | .41 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 0 | .41 |
| 2013 | Carolina | 0 | .41 |
| 2014 | Kansas City | 1 | .40 |
| 2014 | Cincinnati | 0 | .40 |
| 2015 | Philadelphia | ? | ? |
With kickoff returns, the results are more compelling. In the last five years, 17 teams have scored touchdowns on returns in the preseason and eight of them (almost half) have then also scored touchdowns in the preseason. For those group, the preseason teams averaged .59 TDs on kickoff returns in the real games. The league-wide average (for unimpressive teams from the preseason) was only .30 TDs – about half.
So I will take that as evidence that when Tyler Lockett zoomed through the Broncos on a pair of returns back in Week 1, that means there’s a pretty good chance he’ll do it again in the regular season.
| PRESEASON KICKOFF RETURNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | TD | Avg |
| 2010 | Seattle | 3 | .64 |
| 2010 | New England | 2 | .64 |
| 2010 | New Orleans | 0 | .64 |
| 2010 | Carolina | 0 | .64 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 1 | .27 |
| 2011 | Seattle | 0 | .27 |
| 2012 | Denver | 1 | .39 |
| 2012 | Buffalo | 1 | .39 |
| 2012 | Houston | 0 | .39 |
| 2012 | Chicago | 0 | .39 |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 2 | .19 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 0 | .19 |
| 2013 | San Francisco | 0 | .19 |
| 2013 | Minnesota | 0 | .19 |
| 2013 | Buffalo | 0 | .19 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 2 | .10 |
| 2014 | Baltimore | 1 | .10 |
| 2015 | Seattle | ? | ? |
One team, by the way, appears on both charts. The 2012 Texans (who scored 3 TDs on returns in the preseason but didn’t do anything in the real games).
We are carefully auditing and checking our return numbers (not only for kicks but also for interceptions and fumbles) and that will all be part of the revised update that is released later today.
—Ian Allan