ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Is it now time to draft wide receivers first?
DAVID DOREY
What we’ve seen in the NFL for the past several years is a preference for passing and running back committees. That devalues running backs and promotes elite wide receivers into the first two rounds more than ever before. There is much more consistency year-to-year for top ten wide outs repeating than the running backs. But that can be brought too far. The fact that running back touches are down relative to past years makes those fewer low risk/high reward backs even more valuable. Without a track record – running backs should be considered very risky. But as the last weekend showed us, even elite wideouts can have bad weeks and they are highly reliant on their quarterbacks remaining healthy.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
JAY HARDING
Everyone that pays attention knows that the “ZERO RB STRATEGY” is all the rage the last couple of years and to be honest I was pretty skeptical for the longest time, but now am starting to see that it in fact it seems to have some merit. The basic reasoning behind it is that you are more likely to miss on a Top RB selection or they will more likely miss time due to injury than a Top WR and on the other hand it is also fairly easy to obtain serviceable RBs in the mid to late rounds and/or on the Waiver Wire. As an old school player from the late 80’s I can assure you it is extremely hard to let the likes of Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy and others get drafted as you wait not so patiently until the 4th or even 5th round to draft your first RB. However, so far in 2015 in a typical PPR format, there are currently only 2 RBs in the top 20, Jamal Charles and Devonta Freeman and guess where you could draft Freeman at? The league in which I am having the best year I didn’t draft an RB until round 4 when I took Mark Ingram and then my second Chris Ivory in the 7th. Slowly but surely I’m becoming a ZERO RB convert, having it work right before your eyes is the clincher for me. It’s still early so I reserve the right to repent of my RB sins later if I so choose.
Harding, owner of The Fantasy Football Firm has been playing and winning fantasy football since 1987. The Firm specializes in helping fantasy owners win in three key post-draft areas. Senior Partners at The Firm get all three publications: “Effective Team Management”, “Waiver Wire Wisdom” and “The Trade Maker” a combined 57 pages packed with sound, proven and effective strategies focused solely on helping partners win their league championships and to do so more consistently than ever before. On Twitter: @UDONTWINONDDAY.
IAN ALLAN
I like the idea of using picks in the first three rounds on wide receivers — maybe two with those first three picks. I think wide receivers tend to be safer selections than running backs. Heading into drafts, everyone knew that Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson were injury risks. Guys like Jeremy Hill and C.J. Anderson simply haven’t been as good. There have been scheme issues with DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy. Truth is, it’s really hard hitting on running back choices, even with top-20 picks. The success rate is higher with wide receivers, but they’re not quite foolproof either. Brandin Cooks hasn’t hit it big yet. I was discussing this running back issue with Mark Nulty the other day, and he pointed out that his first two picks in one league were Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson. No draft model works every time, but I think in general, you’re better taking the franchise pass catchers early, then loading up on many running backs later, knowing you’ll hit on some of them.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
JOSHUA SIMMONS
In an effort to zig when others zag in a fantasy draft, there is still value in locking down running backs in line for a wealth of touches. If you went Jamaal Charles early, you're pleased right now. Even in the case of LeVeon Bell, Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy, chances are that investment will pan out for you. For every Devonta Freeman, there are scores of running backs folks waited to scoop up who do not pan out in the least. Four weeks in, more wide receivers drafted early are atop the fantasy scoring column. But that alludes to an aspect of fantasy football I don't look to change anytime soon: the NFL is an increasingly "pass happy" league, therefore it stands to reason that the supply of quality receivers will continue to grow. The supply of running backs who see 20+ touches per game and are situated in upper echelon offenses seems to be diminishing. Seems to me the fantasy stock of said running backs is hitting an all-time high.
Simmons has been a contributor for FantasySharks.com since 2007. His responsibilities include dynasty rankings, weekly projections-driven content and staff representation in various leagues.
ALAN SATTERLEE
Absolutely and honestly that's how I draft (when it works out, i.e., I would still take LeVeon Bell at 1.01). In the Fantasy Index experts mock draft in this year's magazine for example, I started my draft with Antonio Brown at 1.07, and snagged Julio Jones in the second round. These elite receivers are so money. Some will say "wide receiver is soooo deep", but that's not true -- there are only so many guys like Brown, Jones, AJ Green, Odell Beckham and Demaryius Thomas, the truly elite. Conversely I think running back is easy to find later in drafts and backs break out every single year. I like to go wide receiver early, then draft running back hard in rounds 4-6. I actually started a draft this year WR/WR/WR and then started adding running backs, and there was a lot to be had in the 4th-6th rounds this year.
Satterlee is a co-owner and senior writer for Dynasty Football Warehouse. DFW is comprehensive site covering dynasty, redraft, IDP and Daily formats. DFW has a large writing crew with many people from the DFW community contributing to the insights and discussion. Alan is also the Fantasy Football Insider for the Charlotte Observer and is syndicated in a few other newspapers in the southeast.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I think so. We generally know who the top wideouts will be. If you have one, you have a major weekly advantage, or at least reliability. With the running backs, we THINK we know who the top ones will be, but all too often it doesn't work out. And especially in PPR, which is most leagues, a running back who rushes for 100 yards but doesn't score will get you far fewer points than a wide receiver who does the same, but with 7-8 receptions. I took Julio and A.J. with my top two picks in one league and would do it again tomorrow. Be interesting to revisit this a few weeks down the road.
Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.