I’ve had a chance to re-watch the game between Carolina and Seattle. There were a few things with these teams I wanted to check out. Most notably Devin Funchess, Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham and Seattle’s defense.
The Seahawks didn’t look as bad as I thought they would. I didn’t think they looked too much different than they did the years they’ve gone to the Super Bowl. They just made a mess of it at the end. But there’s some potential, I think, for them to continue working and still win their division. The schedule, though, is tough, with a pair left against the Cardinals. They’ve still got to play the Steelers and Rams, but those games at least are at home. The game at Minnesota will be tough for them.
But let me focus instead on the individual guys and their fantasy potential.
Carolina receivers. Devin Funchess got 6 targets in this game, which is one fewer than Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown combined. But I don’t see a guy who’ll make much of an impact this year. Ginn and Brown are definitely the “starting” wide receivers. In most of the two-receiver sets, they’re out there. Ginn tends to run downfield routes, while Brown has been used on more shorter stuff. On a lot of plays, they motioned him into a running back position or had him run behind the quarterback to the other side of the field to catch a swing pass. They gave him the ball twice on end-arounds, which is something they do. For the year, I think Ginn has caught about 8 more passes than Brown, and he’s also doing more damage with those balls, with a 3-1 edge in touchdowns and averaging about 17 yards per catch. Jerricho Cotchery seems to be their main No. 3 receiver. When they want to go to three wides, Cotchery almost always the guy who joins them on the field. Which brings us back to their second-round pick. Throughout this game, Funchess would sub in, almost always at the expense of Ginn. One time, for example, Ginn had a lengthy punt returner, going all the way across the field. So Funchess started that series. And if guys are running fly-type routes, it makes sense to rotate those guys. I believe that’s what they’re doing. They drafted Funchess because they like his size. He’s almost as big as Kelvin Benjamin, and that gives Cam Newton a big catch radius to shoot us. But Funchess is slow, and he was pretty miserable in this game. First ball to him was a little behind him and he couldn’t catch it. Some would call it a drop. Second ball was a bomb that a young Randy Moss would have caught (tracking it in the air and using his size to out-position the defensive back). Funchess was never in the mix on that one, and the ball (which was in the right area) was more likely to be intercepted than caught. Third ball was a comeback route that he dropped. Maybe call that a half drop, because Earl Thomas showed up just after the ball. Fourth ball thrown to him was going for 20-25 yards. It was right on the money and he truly bobbled this on and then batted it up into the air, nearly resulting in a loss-clinching interception. Definitely a drop on that one. Later in the fourth quarter, FOX mentioned that he had dropped 3 balls, so apparently they’re scoring those earlier balls as drops. Why is this guy still on the field. But in the last four minutes, Funchess flashed a little potential. Newton launched a bullet to the sidelines and he was able to make a leaping catch for 8 yards and a first down. The vast majority of NFL receivers wouldn’t have made that catch. And with 75 seconds left, Funchess had a 16-yard catch on the game-winning drive. So at least he ended on an up note. I believe Ginn and Brown will continue to start, with Funchess being mixed in for some plays and perhaps putting up better numbers than those guys. I have seen him multiple times around the goal line, so I think they want to use him some on fade routes into the end zone.
Greg Olsen. He finished with 7 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown in this game, and he could have been a lot better. In the first quarter, he was wide open for a 29-yard touchdown and Newton simply underthrew him. Incomplete. Later on a fourth-and-one play, the Panthers faked a run and Olsen was open for 20-plus yards. Newton again underthrew him, allowing Earl Thomas to catch up and knock it away. Olsen also had receptions down to the 2-yard line and the half-yard line. He killed the Seahawks on this day (making it all the more surprising when they didn’t even cover him on the game-deciding touchdown).
Cam Newton. He missed some throws. He always does. He’s not a great passer – he doesn’t see the field as well as the great ones, and he’s not as accurate. But he’s coming along, and he’s like a knuckleball pitcher for defenses, with his size and willingness to run. He’s a 250-pounder who’ll look to run over people, and he’s running for 30-40 yards every game. FOX flashed a graphic that showed Steve Young had an NFL-high 31 games with both a rushing and passing touchdown. Newton is now up to 27, and that might be something that’s a personal goal of his. He sure seems to like calling his own number around the end zone.
Jonathan Stewart. He put together a nice run during the final third of last season, and that’s the back I saw in this game. He ran damn hard and consistently broke tackles. There was more “beast mode” in his game than with Marshawn Lynch on this day, and I don’t mean that as an insult to Lynch (more on him in a moment). Stewart is a good back, and this is a physical, punishing team. Not sure if it was tied to him playing near his hometown, but a very impressive effort. He ran for 78 yards and 2 TDs. Going forward, I don’t like that he’s not a big part of the passing game. They’ll use Fozzy Whittaker on passing downs. He’s also just one of three guys who’ll run for touchdowns on this team. I believe Cam Newton will lead this team in rushing touchdowns, and I think Mike Tolbert will also get a few of those scores on change-up plays. In this game, Tolbert was usually lined up as a fullback on the short-yardage plays.
Russell Wilson. A typical Wilson game, with him running and passing. I don’t like that he’s taking a few hard hits in every game. Will be tough for him to stay healthy. With some of these older quarterbacks – Peyton Manning, Drew Brees – I’m always on the lookout for how far they can throw it. (More accurate, can’t throw it). I think Manning can only throw it about 40-45 yards, and that’s not an accurate range for him – the balls are wobbling and hanging in the air. Wilson in this game launched a ball from his own 15 that landed on the Carolina 17. That’s 68 yards in the air. Huge physical advantage for Wilson over Manning and Brees.
Marshawn Lynch. He hasn’t been great this year, running for 73, 41 and 54 yards in his three full games. But I think he’s pretty much the same guy. Definitely in the St. Louis and Carolina games, I have seen some of his trademark runs, where he’s carrying guys for extra yards. I’ve seen the quick feet in the hole. I don’t think he’s tailed off. The difference, I guess, is more on the offensive line. You can’t count on Lynch doing the Superman thing on every play. He needs better holes. And that played a big role in the Seahawks coming up short in this game. They had a 23-14 lead and the ball with 10 minutes left, and they went three-and-out. With 4 minutes left, they had the ball and a 23-20 lead. After a 20-yard pass play, they went three-and-out. In the past three years, they more likely would have finished off opponents by running the ball down their throats. They were unable to do that this time, giving the Panthers the opportunity to pull it out.
Jimmy Graham. They got him on track in this game. He caught 8 passes for 140 yards. He and Wilson might be starting to get on the same page on broken plays. He had at least 2 receptions (including a 45-yarder) where he had the ad lib after the play broke down and Wilson was buying time. By my count, he lined up as a true tight end on 4 of his 8 receptions. On 2 of the others, he was almost a tight end (lined up just outside where you would normally see a player of that position). So they’re not just using him as an oversized wide receivers.
Seattle receivers. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse had very little impact in this game. They also rotate through their other wide receivers, which is what they like to do. Ricardo Lockette, Tyler Lockett and Chris Matthews were all out there (and not only in formations with three and four receivers). Lockette caught a 40-yard touchdown on a gadget play, and Lockett was the intended target on the 68-yard bazooka launch. With Lockett’s elusiveness, they’ll definitely try to get the ball in his hands a few times per game. The rookie might be the league’s best kick returners, but the Panthers handled him on this day. They didn’t kick away from him, and they were able to control him. They got him inside the 20 on both of their kickoffs.
Seattle defense. It’s not the clobbering unit that it’s been in the past. Cary Williams is a soft spot, and I think you’ll see most every opponent try to beat him with vertical routes. In the third quarter of this game, Ted Ginn was behind him for a 77-yard touchdown, but Cam Newton got hit as he was throwing, resulting instead in an interception. But the Seahawks weren’t so bad, I thought, that they can’t get things fixed. I believe this is still one of the top half-dozen defenses in the league, especially at home.
—Ian Allan