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Wide receivers

DeAndre Hopkins on record target rate

Yesterday we looked at tight ends. Now let’s look at the target and success rates for wide receivers so far. That is, which ones are catching the most balls, and which ones are struggling. Through Week 6, 63 wide receivers have been the intended target on at least 25 passes.

Doug Baldwin and Cole Beasley, believe it or not, have caught the highest percentage of balls. Two guys who had to make their teams as undrafted rookie free agents. But they’re the only two guys who’ve caught over 80 percent of the passes that have been thrown to them. Beasley is particularly impressive, considering the Cowboys have been without Tony Romo for most of the season.

At the other end of the spectrum, Mike Evans and Terrance Williams are at the bottom. Evans is under 40 percent. For whatever reason, he just doesn’t seem to have much of a rapport with Jameis Winston. As a rookie, Evans caught 68 of 124 throws (55 percent), averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. This year he’s down at 39 percent and an anemic 5.3 yards per target.

Four other receivers are catching under half of the balls thrown to them: Ted Ginn Jr., Nate Washington, Allen Robinson and Andre Johnson. Of that group, Johnson is the most troubling. He’s working with one of the game’s better passers, and he’s running mostly shorter, high-percentage routes. Looks like he just can’t play anymore.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Completion rates
PlayerRecTgtYardsPct
Doug Baldwin, Sea.263129184%
Cole Beasley, Dal.222721481%
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.435458380%
Rueben Randle, NYG243226175%
Keenan Allen, S.D.537160175%
John Brown, Ari.334549773%
Jamison Crowder, Was.273724473%
James Jones, G.B.212942472%
Stevie Johnson, S.D.182520572%
Rishard Matthews, Mia.233236372%
Julian Edelman, NE.405744970%
A.J. Green, Cin.355053170%
Brandon Marshall, NYJ375351170%
Eddie Royal, Chi.233316970%
Jeremy Maclin, K.C.395653170%
Jermaine Kearse, Sea.182627469%
Eric Decker, NYJ182623969%
Antonio Brown, Pit.405854769%
Willie Snead, N.O.263843668%
Julio Jones, Atl.497263868%
Lance Moore, Det.192822868%
Allen Hurns, Jac.294346067%
Mike Wallace, Min.223325667%
Kendall Wright, Ten.203127665%
Brandin Cooks, N.O.294536364%
Marques Colston, N.O.182820064%
Jordan Matthews, Phi.365638464%
Demaryius Thomas, Den.487552764%
Tavon Austin, StL.162514464%
Randall Cobb, G.B.304735064%
Amari Cooper, Oak.284438664%
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG386048963%
Percy Harvin, Buf.193021863%
Steve Smith Sr., Bal.365751063%
Marvin Jones, Cin.243832163%
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Pit.172720963%
Pierre Garcon, Was.325129563%
Calvin Johnson, Det.386148862%
Donte Moncrief, Ind.304934761%
Jarvis Landry, Mia.315131261%
Travis Benjamin, Cle.315252860%
Anquan Boldin, S.F.284733360%
Emmanuel Sanders, Den.386552758%
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.528972658%
Golden Tate, Det.325530458%
Cecil Shorts III, Hou.264529958%
Marquess Wilson, Chi.173028857%
Leonard Hankerson, Atl.223929156%
Michael Crabtree, Oak.274831856%
Andrew Hawkins, Cle.183218656%
Torrey Smith, S.F.142532356%
T.Y. Hilton, Ind.335945656%
Michael Floyd, Ari.132515452%
Malcom Floyd, S.D.163131052%
Kamar Aiken, Bal.183526551%
Vincent Jackson, T.B.203930651%
Ryan Grant, Was.142814050%
Andre Johnson, Ind.163316348%
Allen Robinson, Jac.286048847%
Nate Washington, Hou.132821046%
Ted Ginn Jr., Car.132922445%
Terrance Williams, Dal.143322342%
Mike Evans, T.B.133317439%

Catch rates, of course, are only part of the story. Guys like Cole Beasley are catching a bunch of 7-yard balls on crossing routes. Wouldn’t you be more interested in having a receiver with some potential to bust loose for 40-plus yard touchdowns?

So there’s some logic to sort them not by catch rate but by average payoff – yards per pass attempt.

If you do it that way, James Jones, Torrey Smith and Willie Snead grade out as the top 3. Rishard Matthews comes in at No. 4, and I really liked the way he looked in the Tennessee game last week – a big body who can get downfield and provide a nice target on slant routes.

At the other end of end of it, Andre Johnson thus far has been statistically the worst wide receiver in the league, averaging under 5 yards per target.

Ryan Grant grades out as next-to-last, and that’s telling. he’s down at 5.0 yards per attempt, and he’s been starting in place of DeSean Jackson, who’s usually one of the very best guys using this metric.

Eddie Royal, Mike Evans and Golden Tate also haven’t offered much payoff this year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Yards per pass play
PlayerRecTgtYardsAvg
James Jones, G.B.212942414.6
Torrey Smith, S.F.142532312.9
Willie Snead, N.O.263843611.5
Rishard Matthews, Mia.233236311.3
John Brown, Ari.334549711.0
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.435458310.8
Allen Hurns, Jac.294346010.7
A.J. Green, Cin.355053110.6
Jermaine Kearse, Sea.182627410.5
Travis Benjamin, Cle.315252810.2
Malcom Floyd, S.D.163131010.0
Brandon Marshall, NYJ37535119.6
Marquess Wilson, Chi.17302889.6
Jeremy Maclin, K.C.39565319.5
Antonio Brown, Pit.40585479.4
Doug Baldwin, Sea.26312919.4
Eric Decker, NYJ18262399.2
Steve Smith Sr., Bal.36575108.9
Kendall Wright, Ten.20312768.9
Julio Jones, Atl.49726388.9
Amari Cooper, Oak.28443868.8
Keenan Allen, S.D.53716018.5
Marvin Jones, Cin.24383218.4
Stevie Johnson, S.D.18252058.2
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.52897268.2
Rueben Randle, NYG24322618.2
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG38604898.2
Lance Moore, Det.19282288.1
Allen Robinson, Jac.28604888.1
Emmanuel Sanders, Den.38655278.1
Brandin Cooks, N.O.29453638.1
Calvin Johnson, Det.38614888.0
Cole Beasley, Dal.22272147.9
Julian Edelman, NE.40574497.9
Vincent Jackson, T.B.20393067.8
Mike Wallace, Min.22332567.8
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Pit.17272097.7
T.Y. Hilton, Ind.33594567.7
Ted Ginn Jr., Car.13292247.7
Kamar Aiken, Bal.18352657.6
Nate Washington, Hou.13282107.5
Leonard Hankerson, Atl.22392917.5
Randall Cobb, G.B.30473507.4
Percy Harvin, Buf.19302187.3
Marques Colston, N.O.18282007.1
Anquan Boldin, S.F.28473337.1
Donte Moncrief, Ind.30493477.1
Demaryius Thomas, Den.48755277.0
Jordan Matthews, Phi.36563846.9
Terrance Williams, Dal.14332236.8
Cecil Shorts III, Hou.26452996.6
Michael Crabtree, Oak.27483186.6
Jamison Crowder, Was.27372446.6
Michael Floyd, Ari.13251546.2
Jarvis Landry, Mia.31513126.1
Andrew Hawkins, Cle.18321865.8
Pierre Garcon, Was.32512955.8
Tavon Austin, StL.16251445.8
Golden Tate, Det.32553045.5
Mike Evans, T.B.13331745.3
Eddie Royal, Chi.23331695.1
Ryan Grant, Was.14281405.0
Andre Johnson, Ind.16331634.9

There’s also something to be said for just seeing the ball. Who’s getting the action?

Right now DeAndre Hopkins is on pace to finish the year with a record 237 targets. Another 25 wide receivers are averaging at least 8 targets per game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Players averaging 8-plus targets
PlayerGTgtYardsAvg
DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.68972614.8
Demaryius Thomas, Den.67552712.5
Julio Jones, Atl.67263812.0
Keenan Allen, S.D.67160111.8
Steve Smith Sr., Bal.55751011.4
Julian Edelman, NE.55744911.4
Emmanuel Sanders, Den.66552710.8
Brandon Marshall, NYJ55351110.6
Jarvis Landry, Mia.55131210.2
Calvin Johnson, Det.66148810.2
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG66048910.0
Allen Robinson, Jac.66048810.0
T.Y. Hilton, Ind.6594569.8
Antonio Brown, Pit.6585479.7
Michael Crabtree, Oak.5483189.6
Jeremy Maclin, K.C.6565319.3
Jordan Matthews, Phi.6563849.3
Golden Tate, Det.6553049.2
Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.6545839.0
Cecil Shorts III, Hou.5452999.0
Amari Cooper, Oak.5443868.8
Travis Benjamin, Cle.6525288.7
Pierre Garcon, Was.6512958.5
A.J. Green, Cin.6505318.3
Mike Evans, T.B.4331748.3
Donte Moncrief, Ind.6493478.2

—Ian Allan

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