We were kicking around the idea on the podcast of what to make of Khiry Robinson scoring a couple of short touchdowns at Indianapolis. Is he their short-yardage back? If the ball winds up on the 1-yard line this week against the Giants, is Robinson more likely than Mark Ingram to be the guy who punches it in? I said I’d look into it.
So below is a cross-section of short-yardage work through the first seven weeks of the season. On this one, I’m looking only at situations where teams needed 1 yard to either score a touchdown, or to keep a drive alive on third or fourth down.
Explaining the chart (since this isn’t one you’re used to seeing). First you see the number “Good”; that shows the number of times the player was successful on those carries – that is, did he score or pick up the first down? Next are the total attempts (Att). The “Pct” shows the success rate for each player (and note that after seven weeks, every player with at least 4 attempts has been stopped at least once).
The final two columns bring the team into play. The “Team” column shows the numbers for the team of said player. So for the first guy, Marshawn Lynch, he’s 7 of 14, and the team total is 11 of 18 (so the guys other than Lynch for the Seahawks went 4 for 4). Final column shows the percentage of the team’s workload. That is, when a team needs 1 yards, how often does it go with said player to try to complete the job?
Results are as follows …
| PLAYERS WITH AT LEAST 3 SHORT-YARDAGE RUNS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | "Good" | Att | Pct | Team | Pct of Tm |
| M.Lynch, Sea. | 7 | 14 | 50% | (11-18) | 78% |
| M.Ingram, N.O. | 8 | 9 | 89% | (14-16) | 56% |
| T.Brady, N.E. | 7 | 8 | 88% | (14-20) | 40% |
| L.Blount, N.E. | 5 | 8 | 63% | (14-20) | 40% |
| J.Forsett, Balt. | 4 | 8 | 50% | (9-16) | 50% |
| C.Ivory, NYJ | 3 | 8 | 38% | (5-11) | 73% |
| D.Freeman, Atl. | 5 | 7 | 71% | (9-13) | 54% |
| F.Gore, Ind. | 3 | 7 | 43% | (6-10) | 70% |
| M.Forte, Chi. | 3 | 7 | 43% | (8-12) | 58% |
| R.Jennings, NYG | 3 | 7 | 43% | (5-13) | 54% |
| L.Murray, Oak. | 5 | 6 | 83% | (6-7) | 86% |
| J.Hill, Cin. | 5 | 6 | 83% | (9-11) | 55% |
| E.Lacy, G.B. | 4 | 6 | 67% | (8-10) | 60% |
| A.Williams, NYG | 2 | 6 | 33% | (5-13) | 46% |
| D.Martin, T.B. | 4 | 5 | 80% | (7-9) | 56% |
| C.West, K.C. | 4 | 5 | 80% | (7-11) | 45% |
| D.Murray, Phil. | 4 | 5 | 80% | (9-11) | 45% |
| A.Peterson, Minn. | 4 | 5 | 80% | (10-12) | 42% |
| J.Fowler, Tenn. | 4 | 5 | 80% | (6-12) | 42% |
| J.Randle, Dall. | 3 | 5 | 60% | (7-10) | 50% |
| De.Williams, Pitt. | 3 | 5 | 60% | (7-13) | 38% |
| L.Bell, Pitt. | 3 | 5 | 60% | (7-13) | 38% |
| M.Jones, Wash. | 3 | 5 | 60% | (8-13) | 38% |
| J.Flacco, Balt. | 3 | 5 | 60% | (9-16) | 31% |
| T.Gerhart, Jac. | 1 | 5 | 20% | (3-11) | 45% |
| C.Newton, Car. | 3 | 4 | 75% | (5-8) | 50% |
| E.Manuel, Buff. | 3 | 4 | 75% | (6-10) | 40% |
| M.Gordon, S.D. | 3 | 4 | 75% | (9-10) | 40% |
| I.Crowell, Clev. | 1 | 4 | 25% | (5-10) | 40% |
| C.Johnson, Ariz. | 1 | 4 | 25% | (6-11) | 36% |
| A.Andrews, Tenn. | 1 | 4 | 25% | (6-12) | 33% |
| D.Woodhead, S.D. | 3 | 3 | 100% | (9-10) | 30% |
| G.Bernard, Cin. | 3 | 3 | 100% | (9-11) | 27% |
| T.Bridgewater, Minn. | 3 | 3 | 100% | (10-12) | 25% |
| K.Cousins, Wash. | 3 | 3 | 100% | (8-13) | 23% |
| A.Johnson, N.O. | 3 | 3 | 100% | (14-16) | 19% |
| L.Miller, Mia. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (3-6) | 50% |
| C.Anderson, Den. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (3-7) | 43% |
| D.Johnson, Clev. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (5-10) | 30% |
| A.Foster, Hou. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (7-11) | 27% |
| D.Johnson, Ariz. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (6-11) | 27% |
| R.Mathews, Phil. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (9-11) | 27% |
| S.Taylor, Ariz. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (6-11) | 27% |
| Z.Line, Minn. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (10-12) | 25% |
| T.Coleman, Atl. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (9-13) | 23% |
| K.Robinson, N.O. | 2 | 3 | 67% | (14-16) | 19% |
| R.Hillman, Den. | 1 | 3 | 33% | (3-7) | 43% |
| M.Burton, Det. | 1 | 3 | 33% | (6-9) | 33% |
| W.Johnson, Pitt. | 1 | 3 | 33% | (7-13) | 23% |
A few of the takeaways:
• Originally I was looking into the Saints. Note that Mark Ingram, with 9 attempts, has the 2nd-most of these plays in the league. Robinson has only 3 such plays. Also note that Ingram, successful on 8 of 9 carries, has been the league’s most effective player on these kind of plays thus far. So while Robinson punched in a couple of touchdowns last week, my thinking is that this is still mainly Ingram’s show.
• Only four players have had 70-plus percent of their team’s attempts on these players. Latavius Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Ivory and Frank Gore. Those are the only guys where you can say with much confidence that the team is going to them pretty much every time when they wind up on the 1-yard line.
• Among the 25 players with at least 5 attempts, only four have been successful over 80 percent of the time. Ingram, Tom Brady, Murray and Jeremy Hill. Only three have been successful on less than 40 percent of such carries. Toby Gerhart (way down at 1 of 5), Andre Williams and Ivory.
—Ian Allan