I haven’t looked at the overall landscape in a while. Namely, which teams are headed for the playoffs and homefield advantage. So I have taken the last hour or two to re-examine the 256 regular season games, and how they might shake out.
On this kind of project, it’s always good to start with a general ordering of the teams. That is, what would be the win-loss records if we started a new season today, with each team playing an average schedule.
I think such a hypothetical season would turn out like this …
POWER RANKINGS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New England | 15 | 1 | 0 | .938 |
Cincinnati | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
Denver | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
Carolina | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
Seattle | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Green Bay | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Arizona | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Pittsburgh | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Philadelphia | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
NY Jets | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Minnesota | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
NY Giants | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Dallas | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Oakland | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Buffalo | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
St. Louis | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Atlanta | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Kansas City | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Indianapolis | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Miami | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Chicago | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Tampa Bay | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
New Orleans | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Baltimore | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Washington | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Jacksonville | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Tennessee | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
San Francisco | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
San Diego | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
Houston | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Detroit | 3 | 12 | 1 | .219 |
That’s not how I believe things will turn out. No way, for example, is Dallas getting up to 9-7. But that’s how I THINK it would turn out, if we’re giving everyone do-overs and starting again.
Using those approximate strengths, I’ve then went through the remaining games on the schedule and assigned a win probability to each. Using that process, the final eight weeks should come out about like this …
REMAINING W-L RECORDS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
New England | 6.8 | 1.2 | .855 |
Cincinnati | 6.3 | 1.7 | .783 |
Carolina | 6.1 | 1.9 | .765 |
Seattle | 5.7 | 2.3 | .714 |
Denver | 5.7 | 2.3 | .710 |
Green Bay | 5.4 | 2.6 | .680 |
Pittsburgh | 4.4 | 2.6 | .626 |
Philadelphia | 4.8 | 3.2 | .598 |
Oakland | 4.6 | 3.4 | .576 |
Arizona | 4.6 | 3.4 | .571 |
NY Jets | 4.6 | 3.4 | .571 |
Dallas | 4.3 | 3.7 | .540 |
St. Louis | 4.3 | 3.7 | .534 |
Indianapolis | 3.7 | 3.4 | .521 |
Minnesota | 4.1 | 3.9 | .513 |
Jacksonville | 4.0 | 4.0 | .496 |
Kansas City | 3.9 | 4.1 | .486 |
Buffalo | 3.8 | 4.2 | .480 |
New Orleans | 3.3 | 3.7 | .469 |
Atlanta | 3.3 | 3.7 | .469 |
NY Giants | 3.3 | 3.8 | .464 |
Chicago | 3.5 | 4.5 | .438 |
Miami | 3.2 | 4.8 | .396 |
Baltimore | 3.1 | 4.9 | .383 |
Tampa Bay | 3.0 | 5.0 | .379 |
Washington | 2.6 | 5.4 | .330 |
Tennessee | 2.4 | 5.6 | .299 |
San Francisco | 2.0 | 5.0 | .281 |
San Diego | 1.9 | 5.1 | .274 |
Houston | 2.1 | 6.0 | .256 |
Detroit | 1.9 | 6.2 | .231 |
Cleveland | 1.6 | 5.4 | .230 |
And if we combine those wins and losses with the current win-loss records so far, I expect the season will end up like this …
PROJECTED W-L RECORDS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
New England | 14.8 | 1.2 | .928 |
Cincinnati | 14.3 | 1.7 | .891 |
Carolina | 14.1 | 1.9 | .883 |
Denver | 12.7 | 3.3 | .793 |
Green Bay | 11.4 | 4.6 | .715 |
Arizona | 10.6 | 5.4 | .661 |
Minnesota | 10.1 | 5.9 | .631 |
Seattle | 9.7 | 6.3 | .607 |
NY Jets | 9.6 | 6.4 | .598 |
Pittsburgh | 9.4 | 6.6 | .586 |
Atlanta | 9.3 | 6.7 | .580 |
Philadelphia | 8.8 | 7.2 | .549 |
Oakland | 8.6 | 7.4 | .538 |
St. Louis | 8.3 | 7.7 | .517 |
NY Giants | 8.3 | 7.8 | .516 |
Buffalo | 7.8 | 8.2 | .490 |
Indianapolis | 7.7 | 8.4 | .478 |
New Orleans | 7.3 | 8.7 | .455 |
Kansas City | 6.9 | 9.1 | .431 |
Chicago | 6.5 | 9.5 | .406 |
Dallas | 6.3 | 9.7 | .395 |
Miami | 6.2 | 9.8 | .386 |
Tampa Bay | 6.0 | 10.0 | .377 |
Jacksonville | 6.0 | 10.0 | .373 |
Washington | 5.6 | 10.4 | .353 |
Baltimore | 5.1 | 10.9 | .316 |
Houston | 5.1 | 11.0 | .316 |
San Francisco | 5.0 | 11.0 | .311 |
Tennessee | 4.4 | 11.6 | .274 |
San Diego | 3.9 | 12.1 | .245 |
Cleveland | 3.6 | 12.4 | .226 |
Detroit | 2.9 | 13.2 | .178 |
According to my math, the Patriots, Bengals, Broncos and Colts will be the division winners in the AFC, with the Jets and Steelers getting the wild cards. The Raiders finish about a game behind, and it’s worthwhile noting (for tiebreaker purposes) that they’ve beaten the Jets and lost at Pittsburgh.
In the NFC, I believe Carolina, Green Bay, Arizona and Philadelphia will win the divisions, with Minnesota and Seattle getting the wild cards.
—Ian Allan