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Patriots, Bengals, Panthers and Packers appear headed for home field

I haven’t looked at the overall landscape in a while. Namely, which teams are headed for the playoffs and homefield advantage. So I have taken the last hour or two to re-examine the 256 regular season games, and how they might shake out.

On this kind of project, it’s always good to start with a general ordering of the teams. That is, what would be the win-loss records if we started a new season today, with each team playing an average schedule.

I think such a hypothetical season would turn out like this …

POWER RANKINGS
TeamWLTPct
New England1510.938
Cincinnati1330.813
Denver1240.750
Carolina1240.750
Seattle1141.719
Green Bay1150.688
Arizona1150.688
Pittsburgh1051.656
Philadelphia961.594
NY Jets961.594
Minnesota961.594
NY Giants970.563
Dallas970.563
Oakland871.531
Buffalo871.531
St. Louis880.500
Atlanta781.469
Kansas City790.438
Indianapolis790.438
Miami691.406
Chicago691.406
Tampa Bay6100.375
New Orleans6100.375
Baltimore6100.375
Washington5101.344
Jacksonville5101.344
Tennessee4111.281
San Francisco4111.281
San Diego4111.281
Houston4120.250
Cleveland4120.250
Detroit3121.219

That’s not how I believe things will turn out. No way, for example, is Dallas getting up to 9-7. But that’s how I THINK it would turn out, if we’re giving everyone do-overs and starting again.

Using those approximate strengths, I’ve then went through the remaining games on the schedule and assigned a win probability to each. Using that process, the final eight weeks should come out about like this …

REMAINING W-L RECORDS
TeamWLPct
New England6.81.2.855
Cincinnati6.31.7.783
Carolina6.11.9.765
Seattle5.72.3.714
Denver5.72.3.710
Green Bay5.42.6.680
Pittsburgh4.42.6.626
Philadelphia4.83.2.598
Oakland4.63.4.576
Arizona4.63.4.571
NY Jets4.63.4.571
Dallas4.33.7.540
St. Louis4.33.7.534
Indianapolis3.73.4.521
Minnesota4.13.9.513
Jacksonville4.04.0.496
Kansas City3.94.1.486
Buffalo3.84.2.480
New Orleans3.33.7.469
Atlanta3.33.7.469
NY Giants3.33.8.464
Chicago3.54.5.438
Miami3.24.8.396
Baltimore3.14.9.383
Tampa Bay3.05.0.379
Washington2.65.4.330
Tennessee2.45.6.299
San Francisco2.05.0.281
San Diego1.95.1.274
Houston2.16.0.256
Detroit1.96.2.231
Cleveland1.65.4.230

And if we combine those wins and losses with the current win-loss records so far, I expect the season will end up like this …

PROJECTED W-L RECORDS
TeamWLPct
New England14.81.2.928
Cincinnati14.31.7.891
Carolina14.11.9.883
Denver12.73.3.793
Green Bay11.44.6.715
Arizona10.65.4.661
Minnesota10.15.9.631
Seattle9.76.3.607
NY Jets9.66.4.598
Pittsburgh9.46.6.586
Atlanta9.36.7.580
Philadelphia8.87.2.549
Oakland8.67.4.538
St. Louis8.37.7.517
NY Giants8.37.8.516
Buffalo7.88.2.490
Indianapolis7.78.4.478
New Orleans7.38.7.455
Kansas City6.99.1.431
Chicago6.59.5.406
Dallas6.39.7.395
Miami6.29.8.386
Tampa Bay6.010.0.377
Jacksonville6.010.0.373
Washington5.610.4.353
Baltimore5.110.9.316
Houston5.111.0.316
San Francisco5.011.0.311
Tennessee4.411.6.274
San Diego3.912.1.245
Cleveland3.612.4.226
Detroit2.913.2.178

According to my math, the Patriots, Bengals, Broncos and Colts will be the division winners in the AFC, with the Jets and Steelers getting the wild cards. The Raiders finish about a game behind, and it’s worthwhile noting (for tiebreaker purposes) that they’ve beaten the Jets and lost at Pittsburgh.

In the NFC, I believe Carolina, Green Bay, Arizona and Philadelphia will win the divisions, with Minnesota and Seattle getting the wild cards.

—Ian Allan

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