There’s that theory that gets kicked around that Thursday games are lower scoring. Teams don’t have time to put in game plans or prepare or whatever. I don’t put much stock in it.
In my eyes, the dynamic there is the reality that games between divisional opponents are lower scoring, I think because defenses have a better idea of how to defend. They get a feel for what kinds of routes receivers are best at and whatnot.
This can be confirmed by looking at the historical results.
Since 2006, there have been 59 Thursday games between division opponents. An average of 41.6 points was scored in those games. During the same time period, there have been 45 Thursday games between teams outside the division. In those games, there have been an average of 47.3 points scored. That’s an difference of almost 6 points per game, which is a lot. And with over 100 games in the same size, that’s not just a chance/fluke result.
The truest measure is when you look at the divisional games, then compare them to the other meetings between those teams. Then you’ve got the same two teams playing in the same year with the same coaches. In theory, the Thursday games should be lower scoring.
But that’s not the case.
In the 59 games that averaged 41.6 points on Thursdays, those same teams averaged 40.8 points when they played on Sundays and Mondays in their other meetings that year.
Divisional games tend to be lower scoring. That’s the truth.
Since the NFL launched this thing, only 30 of the other games have been higher scoring and 28 have been lower scoring – almost a 50-50 mix. If you’re looking for a big difference, it tilts the other way – 25 of the other meetings have been at least a touchdown lower in scoring. Only 19 of the other meetings have featured an extra touchdown (or more) of scoring.
There’s no data that supports the idea that a Thursday kickoff reduces offensive production.
| DIVISIONAL THURSDAY MATCHUPS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Score | Pts | Other | Diff |
| 2006 | at Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 7 | 34 | 44 | 10 |
| 2006 | at Kansas City 19, Denver 10 | 29 | 15 | -14 |
| 2006 | at Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 7 | 20 | 46 | 26 |
| 2006 | at Green Bay 9, Minnesota 7 | 16 | 40 | 24 |
| 2006 | San Francisco 24, at Seattle 14 | 38 | 34 | -4 |
| 2007 | Green Bay 37, at Detroit 26 | 63 | 47 | -16 |
| 2008 | at San Diego 34, Oakland 7 | 41 | 46 | 5 |
| 2008 | at Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 10 | 37 | 48 | 11 |
| 2008 | NY Jets 34, at New England 31 | 65 | 29 | -36 |
| 2008 | Indianapolis 31, at Jacksonville 24 | 55 | 44 | -11 |
| 2009 | at Cleveland 13, Pittsburgh 6 | 19 | 41 | 22 |
| 2009 | Indianapolis 35, at Jacksonville 31 | 66 | 26 | -40 |
| 2009 | NY Jets 19, at Buffalo 13 | 32 | 29 | -3 |
| 2009 | Green Bay 34, at Detroit 12 | 46 | 26 | -20 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis 30, at Tennessee 28 | 58 | 43 | -15 |
| 2011 | at Pittsburgh 14, Cleveland 3 | 17 | 22 | 5 |
| 2011 | at Indianapolis 19, Houston 16 | 35 | 41 | 6 |
| 2011 | Oakland 24, at San Diego 17 | 41 | 64 | 23 |
| 2011 | Green Bay 27, at Detroit 15 | 42 | 86 | 44 |
| 2012 | at San Diego 31, Kansas City 13 | 44 | 57 | 13 |
| 2012 | at St. Louis 17, Arizona 3 | 20 | 48 | 28 |
| 2012 | at Green Bay 23, Chicago 10 | 33 | 34 | 1 |
| 2012 | at Atlanta 23, New Orleans 13 | 36 | 58 | 22 |
| 2012 | at Baltimore 23, Cleveland 16 | 39 | 40 | 1 |
| 2012 | at San Francisco 13, Seattle 6 | 19 | 55 | 36 |
| 2012 | at Buffalo 19, Miami 14 | 33 | 34 | 1 |
| 2012 | Washington 38, at Dallas 31 | 69 | 46 | -23 |
| 2012 | Denver 26, at Oakland 13 | 39 | 43 | 4 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis 27, at Jacksonville 10 | 37 | 39 | 2 |
| 2012 | New England 49, at NY Jets 19 | 68 | 55 | -13 |
| 2013 | at Detroit 40, Green Bay 10 | 50 | 31 | -19 |
| 2013 | at Jacksonville 27, Houston 20 | 47 | 19 | -28 |
| 2013 | at New England 13, NY Jets 10 | 23 | 57 | 34 |
| 2013 | at Baltimore 22, Pittsburgh 20 | 42 | 35 | -7 |
| 2013 | Indianapolis 30, at Tennessee 27 | 57 | 36 | -21 |
| 2013 | New Orleans 17, at Atlanta 13 | 30 | 40 | 10 |
| 2013 | San Diego 27, at Denver 20 | 47 | 48 | 1 |
| 2013 | Seattle 34, at Arizona 22 | 56 | 27 | -29 |
| 2013 | Carolina 31, at Tampa Bay 13 | 44 | 33 | -11 |
| 2013 | San Francisco 35, at St. Louis 11 | 46 | 36 | -10 |
| 2014 | at Atlanta 56, Tampa Bay 14 | 70 | 44 | -26 |
| 2014 | at Green Bay 42, Minnesota 10 | 52 | 45 | -7 |
| 2014 | at Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 6 | 35 | 66 | 31 |
| 2014 | at Detroit 34, Chicago 17 | 51 | 34 | -17 |
| 2014 | at Denver 35, San Diego 21 | 56 | 32 | -24 |
| 2014 | at Miami 22, Buffalo 9 | 31 | 39 | 8 |
| 2014 | at Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 13 | 34 | 30 | -4 |
| 2014 | at Oakland 24, Kansas City 20 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
| 2014 | at New England 27, NY Jets 25 | 52 | 33 | -19 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis 33, at Houston 28 | 61 | 27 | -34 |
| 2014 | Arizona 12, at St. Louis 6 | 18 | 45 | 27 |
| 2014 | Seattle 19, at San Francisco 3 | 22 | 24 | 2 |
| 2014 | New Orleans 28, at Carolina 10 | 38 | 51 | 13 |
| 2014 | Cleveland 24, at Cincinnati 3 | 27 | 30 | 3 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia 33, at Dallas 10 | 43 | 65 | 22 |
| 2014 | NY Giants 45, at Washington 14 | 59 | 37 | -22 |
| 2015 | at NY Giants 32, Washington 21 | 53 | 34 | -19 |
| 2015 | Denver 31, at Kansas City 24 | 55 | 42 | -13 |
| 2015 | Seattle 20, at San Francisco 3 | 23 | 42 | 19 |