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Goal-line passing

Success rates for pass plays inside the 10

There is only one quarterback in the league who has successfully put the ball in the end zone on over half of his pass plays inside the 10, and he’s probably not one of the first 15 guys you might think of. Marcus Mariota. He’s thrown the ball 21 times inside the 10, and he’s thrown touchdowns (or 2-point conversions) on 11 of those plays. Pretty impressive.

Only one other quarterback is at 50 percent – Andy Dalton. Others who have been successful in this part of the field include Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Andrew Luck and Brian Hoyer. Lots of young guys in there.

Johnny Manziel, on the other hand, has been the league’s worst in that part of the field, connecting on only 1 of 10 passes. Others who’s success rate has been no better than about 20 percent include Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning.

These are numbers we add up the old fashioned way. Each week Andy goes through the play-by-plays and pulls out the short yardage plays and the plays inside the 10. They include 2-point conversions, which aren’t officially NFL “plays” but are telling for fantasy purposes.

Using this data, I have tabulated the production for the 33 quarterbacks with at least 10 plays in that area. Then I saw Brock Osweiler at 9 plays, and figured I’d toss him in there was well.

What you’re seeing here are completions, attempts, completion percentage, “end zone” (both touchdowns and 2-point conversions) and end zone percentage (that is the success rate for getting the ball into the end zone). To make the chart more readable, I have left out interceptions, sacks and total plays (pass attempts + sacks).

For those who are interested in such things, I will point out that Teddy Bridgewater is the only quarterback who has been sacked 3 times in that part of the field. Three quarterbacks have thrown 2 interceptions: Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning.

PASSING INSIDE THE 10-YARD LINE
PlayerComAttPctEZPct
Mariota, Tenn.142166.7%1152.4%
Dalton, Cin.132454.2%1250.0%
Stafford, Det.182572.0%1248.0%
Carr, Oak.101952.6%947.4%
Luck, Ind.101758.8%847.1%
Hoyer, Hou.91656.3%847.1%
Rivers, S.D.142458.3%1145.8%
Fitzpatrick, NYJ132259.1%1045.5%
Rodgers, G.B.224055.0%1742.5%
Roethlisberger, Pitt.152657.7%1140.7%
Cousins, Wash.182962.1%1240.0%
Ryan, Atl.173056.7%1240.0%
Hasselbeck, Ind.71450.0%640.0%
Palmer, Ariz.122744.4%1139.3%
Newton, Car.142556.0%1038.5%
Bortles, Jac.142948.3%1136.7%
Brady, N.E.163151.6%1236.4%
Brees, N.O.142263.6%836.4%
Taylor, Buff.61060.0%433.3%
Osweiler, Den.5955.6%333.3%
McCown, Clev.112445.8%832.0%
Tannehill, Mia.173548.6%1131.4%
Manning, NYG152755.6%931.0%
A.Smith, K.C.112055.0%630.0%
Flacco, Balt.162857.1%828.6%
Winston, T.B.123237.5%927.3%
Bradford, Phil.71450.0%426.7%
Bridgewater, Minn.51338.5%425.0%
Manning, Den.71353.8%323.1%
Cutler, Chi.143243.8%721.2%
Wilson, Sea.41428.6%320.0%
Romo, Dall.51241.7%215.4%
Kaepernick, S.F.72035.0%314.3%
Manziel, Clev.11010.0%110.0%

—Ian Allan

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