Let me take a quick look at Strength of Schedule. Apologies for not getting this posted on Monday night (or yesterday), but in that Monday-Tuesday window, the priority is to thoroughly scout each of the 16 games for the pay product. Want to make sure we get all of the rankings and projections prepared with the proper due diligence.
For scheduling this time, I took the win-loss record of each team, then plugged them into the 2015. You add up the wins and losses for each club, and invariably a few interesting results appear.
Starting with the remaining four weeks.
Our beloved Kansas City franchise has an remarkably easy closing run, with the Chargers, Browns, Ravens and Raiders. All four opponents have losing records, and they have a combined mark of 14-34, which is way lower than every other team.
The Lions and Colts are the other two teams with really easy schedules.
On the other end, Atlanta has the hardest remaining slate, with half of its games against the 12-0 Panthers. Baltimore is next in line, as the only team that will play all four of its remaining games against teams that currently have winning records.
The NFC East is still up for grabs, with all four teams in it, so I have put a black dot next to those franchises. Note that in that group, Washington has by far the easiest remaining schedule, while the Giants have the hardest.
On the chart below, I have added a column showing the number of teams with winning records. If a team is 6-6, it doesn’t trigger that column – must be above .500.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 14-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined win/loss record of remaining opponents | ||||
| Team | W | L | Pct | >.500 |
| Kansas City | 14 | 34 | .292 | 0 |
| Detroit | 17 | 31 | .354 | 0 |
| Indianapolis | 18 | 30 | .375 | 0 |
| • Washington | 20 | 28 | .417 | 0 |
| Seattle | 20 | 28 | .417 | 1 |
| New Orleans | 20 | 28 | .417 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 20 | 28 | .417 | 1 |
| New England | 21 | 27 | .438 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 21 | 27 | .438 | 1 |
| St. Louis | 21 | 27 | .438 | 1 |
| Jacksonville | 22 | 26 | .458 | 0 |
| Carolina | 23 | 25 | .479 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 23 | 25 | .479 | 1 |
| Houston | 23 | 25 | .479 | 1 |
| Chicago | 23 | 25 | .479 | 1 |
| Miami | 24 | 24 | .500 | 1 |
| Cincinnati | 25 | 23 | .521 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 23 | .521 | 1 |
| Denver | 25 | 23 | .521 | 2 |
| Cleveland | 25 | 23 | .521 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 26 | 22 | .542 | 2 |
| • Philadelphia | 26 | 22 | .542 | 1 |
| • Dallas | 26 | 22 | .542 | 2 |
| Green Bay | 27 | 21 | .563 | 2 |
| San Diego | 27 | 21 | .563 | 2 |
| Arizona | 28 | 20 | .583 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 28 | 20 | .583 | 2 |
| Oakland | 28 | 20 | .583 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 29 | 19 | .604 | 2 |
| • NY Giants | 30 | 18 | .625 | 2 |
| Baltimore | 31 | 17 | .646 | 4 |
| Atlanta | 32 | 16 | .667 | 2 |
With schedules, it can also be useful to look not forward but in the rearview mirror. So I have also totaled up the wins and losses for the first 13 weeks of the reason.
For this one, I have removed each team’s own games. That is, Carolina’s opponents show with a record of 62-70. That’s their record in other games. They are 62-82 overall when you add in their 12 losses to the Panthers. But I leave those games out. Otherwise, the teams with double-digit wins will appear to have played easier schedules, while the crappy teams’ results will be appear to be the result of difficult schedules.
On this one, Atlanta jumps out. The Falcons and Titans have played the league’s easiest schedules. Note that each of these teams have played only one game against an opponent that currently has a winning record. Yet these teams have had lousy seasons anyway. No excuses for those guys.
Kansas City (which has the super easy schedule coming up) has thus far played the league’s hardest schedule. Detroit is just one game back, and it’s played a league-high eight games against teams that currently have winning records.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-13) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined win-loss records of opponents | ||||
| Team | W | L | Pct | >.500 |
| Atlanta | 56 | 76 | .424 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 57 | 75 | .432 | 1 |
| Arizona | 57 | 75 | .432 | 3 |
| Baltimore | 58 | 74 | .439 | 4 |
| NY Jets | 59 | 73 | .447 | 1 |
| NY Giants | 59 | 73 | .447 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay | 60 | 72 | .455 | 1 |
| Miami | 60 | 72 | .455 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | 61 | 71 | .462 | 4 |
| Carolina | 62 | 70 | .470 | 2 |
| Oakland | 63 | 69 | .477 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 63 | 69 | .477 | 4 |
| Jacksonville | 63 | 69 | .477 | 3 |
| San Diego | 65 | 67 | .492 | 6 |
| Philadelphia | 65 | 67 | .492 | 3 |
| Washington | 66 | 66 | .500 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 67 | 65 | .508 | 5 |
| Denver | 67 | 65 | .508 | 5 |
| Dallas | 67 | 65 | .508 | 3 |
| Cleveland | 67 | 65 | .508 | 6 |
| New England | 68 | 64 | .515 | 3 |
| Green Bay | 69 | 63 | .523 | 5 |
| Houston | 70 | 62 | .530 | 4 |
| Chicago | 71 | 61 | .538 | 7 |
| St. Louis | 72 | 60 | .545 | 7 |
| New Orleans | 72 | 60 | .545 | 3 |
| Buffalo | 72 | 60 | .545 | 5 |
| San Francisco | 73 | 59 | .553 | 7 |
| Seattle | 75 | 57 | .568 | 6 |
| Indianapolis | 75 | 57 | .568 | 5 |
| Detroit | 76 | 56 | .576 | 8 |
| Kansas City | 77 | 55 | .583 | 6 |
—Ian Allan