Enjoy Peyton Manning while you can. He’s been probably one of the top 5 players in NFL history, but his career is now week-to-week. Every game could be his last. Great, great player, but his physical skills are eroded to the point where it would be a surprise if any team wants him in 2016. (And Manning might not even want to come back.)
With the Steelers dealing with a host of injuries and the Broncos playing at home, I’m thinking Manning has another win in him, probably setting up a final showdown against Tom Brady. But Manning has been so iffy and erratic, that it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities that he gets cashed out this week. Especially if the weather is iffy, the Broncos could even pull him early, hoping Brock Osweiler gives the offense a spark.
Great as he’s been in the regular season, Manning has never been a dominant quarterback in the playoffs. In his last 16 playoff starts (a season’s worth of action), he’s 8-8. He’s had a passer rating over 100 in only three of those games. In the majority of those games (9), his passer rating has been under 90.
Part of this, of course, is just the level of competition getting better.
But note that in 11 of those games, Manning was a favorite playing at home. Just 6-5 in those games. He’s 1-2 in Super Bowls, and he’s split his two games on the road, winning at Baltimore and losing at San Diego.
Manning has thrown only 24 TDs in his last 16 postseason games, with more than 2 in only three games. And all of those offenses were a lot better than what Denver has done this year (it’s been sputtering along at about 2 TDs per game). I’m figuring Manning throws 1-2 TDs in this one.
I don’t think the Broncos have quite the chops to win two at home, getting to the Super Bowl.
| PEYTON MANNING -- PLAYOFF GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
| 2005 | Pitt. L 18-21 | 58% | 290 | 1 | 0 | 90.9 |
| 2006 | K.C. W 23-8 | 79% | 268 | 1 | 3 | 71.9 |
| 2006 | Balt. W 15-6 | 50% | 170 | 0 | 2 | 39.6 |
| 2006 | N.E. W 38-34 | 57% | 349 | 1 | 1 | 79.1 |
| 2006 | Chi. W 29-17 | 66% | 247 | 1 | 1 | 81.8 |
| 2007 | S.D. L 24-28 | 69% | 402 | 3 | 2 | 97.7 |
| 2008 | S.D. L 17-23 | 60% | 310 | 1 | 0 | 90.4 |
| 2009 | Balt. W 20-3 | 68% | 246 | 2 | 1 | 87.9 |
| 2009 | NYJ W 30-17 | 67% | 377 | 3 | 0 | 123.6 |
| 2009 | N.O. L 17-31 | 69% | 333 | 1 | 1 | 88.5 |
| 2010 | NYJ L 16-17 | 69% | 225 | 1 | 0 | 108.7 |
| 2012 | Balt. L 35-38 | 65% | 290 | 3 | 2 | 88.3 |
| 2013 | S.D. W 24-17 | 69% | 230 | 2 | 1 | 93.5 |
| 2013 | N.E. W 26-16 | 74% | 400 | 2 | 0 | 118.4 |
| 2013 | Sea. L 8-43 | 69% | 280 | 1 | 2 | 73.5 |
| 2014 | Ind. L 13-24 | 57% | 211 | 1 | 0 | 75.5 |
| Total | Rec: 8-8 | 65% | 4,628 | 24 | 16 | 88.1 |
—Ian Allan