Fantasy Index

Factoid

Goal-line receiving

Jermaine Kearse has struggled around the end zone

I see that Jermaine Kearse is getting a little pissy about his contract. He’s mentioned a couple of times that there will be no “hometown discount” for the Seahawks. That type of talk is best left unsaid – better to leave those kind of statements for the agents. For this particular case, Kearse probably isn’t a player Seattle is too worried about.

The way seems to be unfolding, Kearse doesn’t look like he’s anything more than their 3rd-best wide receiver. Doug Baldwin is really good, and Tyler Lockett had a great rookie season, with 6 TD catches and another 2 TDs on kick returns. Lockett is a lot more explosive than Kearse.

Kearse is supposed to be the big-body wide receiver in this offense, but that simply hasn’t happened. He’s not catching another of the contested balls – the 50-50 type balls when there’s coverage in the area.

Around the goal-line, Kearse has been about the worst wide receiver in the league over the last two years. Ten times Russell Wilson has thrown to him when the team has been inside the 10 yard line, and only one of those passes was completed. That’s the lowest success rate among the 44 wide receivers who’ve seen double-digit targets over the last two years.

One of the best, by the way, has been a former Seattle receiver – Golden Tate, who’s gone 14 of 18 in his first two years in Detroit. With Calvin Johnson seemingly gone, Tate is a guy I believe I’ll be high on. I haven’t looked into him thoroughly yet, but I’m guessing Tate might get into the top 10 among wide receivers on my board.

Note with these numbers, by the way, that the myth about wanting big receivers for situations around the end zone is just that – a myth. Most of the wide receivers who’ve caught under 40 percent of their pass attempts inside the 10 are the big receivers, and most of the guys who’ve been over 60 percent successful tend to be the small receivers – Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Harry Douglas, Antonio Brown.

It is just really hard, I think, throwing fade routes into the corners of the end zone. The throw must be accurate, and both the quarterback and wide receiver need to time it right. I think the success rates are higher on the underneath throws, with smaller guys running through traffic that generates a pick action.

RECEIVING INSIDE 10 (2014-15)
RkPlayerAttComPctTDEZ%
1.Jordan Matthews, Phil.10990%660%
2.Golden Tate, Det.181478%844%
3.Emmanuel Sanders, Den.181372%739%
4.Harry Douglas, Atl.-Ten.10770%440%
5.Mike Wallace, Mia.-Min.12867%867%
6.Antonio Brown, Pitt.352263%1543%
7.Randall Cobb, G.B.291862%1448%
8.Allen Robinson, Jac.181161%1161%
9.Calvin Johnson, Det.15960%853%
10.DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.12758%650%
11.Doug Baldwin, Sea.12758%433%
12.Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.16956%744%
13.Roddy White, Atl.16956%744%
14.Eric Decker, NYJ251456%1040%
15.Brian Hartline, Mia.-Cle.11655%436%
16.Davante Adams, G.B.13754%323%
17.Michael Crabtree, S.F.-Oak.13754%538%
18.Odell Beckham Jr., NYG17953%953%
19.James Jones, Oak.-G.B.191053%947%
20.Jarvis Landry, Mia.211152%733%
21.Eddie Royal, S.D.-Chi.16850%425%
22.Jamison Crowder, Wash.10550%330%
23.Jeremy Maclin, Phi.-K.C.10550%550%
24.Brandon Marshall, Chi.-NYJ211048%838%
25.Julio Jones, Atl.17847%529%
26.Allen Hurns, Jac.13646%431%
27.Mike Evans, T.B.13646%646%
28.A.J. Green, Cin.14643%536%
29.Andre Johnson, Hou.-Ind.19842%526%
30.Rueben Randle, NYG19842%526%
31.T.Y. Hilton, Ind.12542%433%
32.Jordy Nelson, G.B.17741%424%
33.Marques Colston, N.O.10440%440%
34.Demaryius Thomas, Den.271037%726%
35.Dez Bryant, Dall.17635%635%
36.Pierre Garcon, Wash.17635%635%
37.Alshon Jeffery, Chi.23835%730%
38.Nate Washington, Ten.-Hou.10330%110%
39.Terrance Williams, Dall.11327%327%
40.Vincent Jackson, T.B.16425%425%
41.Martavis Bryant, Pitt.13323%323%
42.Kelvin Benjamin, Car.10220%220%
43.Anquan Boldin, S.F.12217%18%
44.Jermaine Kearse, Sea.10110%110%

—Ian Allan

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