The Chargers selected Melvin Gordon with the 15th pick of the draft last year, thinking he’d spark their running game, and they got very little return on their investment. There were offensive line issues, but he definitely struggled with decision making, as well as fumbling 6 times. New offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt says getting Gordon going is one of his primary goals.
What, though, are the odds of that happening? That is, when a team selects a running back in the first round, thinking his going to be the next big thing, at one point do we re-assess and determine said player probably in hindsight should have been selected in the third or fourth round?
Gordon did bust an above-average number of long runs last year. And he was definitely held back by a poor line – the team’s other runners weren’t any more effective carrying the ball. And note that Gordon caught 89 percent of the passes they threw to him last year, the highest rate in the league among all running backs with at least 30 targets. So there’s that.
But Gordon never really looked like a first-round guy. And as I look back at past drafts, when this kind of player isn’t effective in his first year, over two thirds of the time he’s also not much better in his second season.
Since 1990, 46 running backs selected in the first round have finished with less than 1,000 total yards (rushing and receiving). Of those guys, only 11 came back in their second season to go over 1,000. For ballpark purposes (and I have these guys in bold) I would say 13 of the 46 were good, productive fantasy backs in their second seasons.
I’m not calling Gordon a bust, but the jury remains out on him.
FIRST-ROUND FLOPS IN SECOND SEASON | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | 1st Yr | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
1990 | Rodney Hampton | (729-4) | 1059 | 283 | 1342 | 10 |
1990 | Blair Thomas | (824-2) | 728 | 195 | 923 | 4 |
1990 | Dexter Carter | (677-1) | 379 | 253 | 632 | 4 |
1990 | Steve Broussard | (614-4) | 449 | 120 | 569 | 5 |
1990 | Darrell Thompson | (265-2) | 471 | 71 | 542 | 1 |
1991 | Jarrod Bunch | (8-0) | 501 | 50 | 551 | 4 |
1991 | Harvey Williams | (594-3) | 262 | 24 | 286 | 1 |
1992 | Tommy Vardell | (497-0) | 644 | 151 | 795 | 4 |
1992 | Tony Smith | (343-2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
1992 | Vaughn Dunbar | (627-3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1993 | Garrison Hearst | (282-1) | 169 | 49 | 218 | 1 |
1993 | Robert Smith | (510-2) | 106 | 105 | 211 | 1 |
1994 | Greg Hill | (666-1) | 667 | 45 | 712 | 1 |
1994 | William Floyd | (450-6) | 237 | 348 | 585 | 3 |
1995 | Napoleon Kaufman | (552-2) | 874 | 143 | 1017 | 2 |
1995 | James Stewart | (715-3) | 723 | 177 | 900 | 10 |
1995 | Tyrone Wheatley | (272-3) | 400 | 51 | 451 | 3 |
1995 | Ki-Jana Carter | (0-0) | 264 | 169 | 433 | 9 |
1996 | Lawrence Phillips | (660-5) | 677 | 39 | 716 | 8 |
1996 | Tim Biakabutuka | (229-0) | 299 | 0 | 299 | 2 |
1998 | Curtis Enis | (517-0) | 916 | 340 | 1256 | 5 |
1998 | John Avery | (570-3) | 21 | 24 | 45 | 0 |
2000 | Shaun Alexander | (354-2) | 1318 | 343 | 1661 | 16 |
2000 | Ron Dayne | (781-5) | 690 | 67 | 757 | 7 |
2000 | Trung Canidate | (10-0) | 441 | 154 | 595 | 6 |
2000 | Thomas Jones | (581-2) | 380 | 151 | 531 | 5 |
2001 | Deuce McAllister | (257-2) | 1388 | 352 | 1740 | 16 |
2001 | Michael Bennett | (908-3) | 1296 | 351 | 1647 | 6 |
2002 | T.J. Duckett | (568-4) | 779 | 94 | 873 | 11 |
2003 | Willis McGahee | (0-0) | 1128 | 169 | 1297 | 13 |
2003 | Larry Johnson | (87-1) | 581 | 278 | 859 | 11 |
2004 | Steven Jackson | (862-4) | 1046 | 320 | 1366 | 10 |
2004 | Chris Perry | (34-0) | 279 | 328 | 607 | 2 |
2005 | Cedric Benson | (275-0) | 647 | 54 | 701 | 6 |
2006 | Laurence Maroney | (939-7) | 835 | 116 | 951 | 6 |
2006 | DeAngelo Williams | (814-2) | 717 | 175 | 892 | 5 |
2008 | Rashard Mendenhall | (75-0) | 1108 | 261 | 1369 | 8 |
2008 | Jonathan Stewart | (883-10) | 1133 | 139 | 1272 | 11 |
2008 | Felix Jones | (276-4) | 685 | 119 | 804 | 3 |
2008 | Darren McFadden | (784-4) | 357 | 245 | 602 | 1 |
2009 | Donald Brown | (450-3) | 497 | 205 | 702 | 2 |
2009 | Beanie Wells | (936-7) | 397 | 74 | 471 | 2 |
2010 | Ryan Mathews | (823-7) | 1091 | 455 | 1546 | 6 |
2010 | C.J. Spiller | (440-1) | 561 | 269 | 830 | 6 |
2011 | Mark Ingram | (520-5) | 602 | 29 | 631 | 5 |
2012 | David Wilson | (392-5) | 146 | 8 | 154 | 1 |
2015 | • Melvin Gordon | (833-0) | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan