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Factoid

Melvin Gordon

Can first-round running back get his career turned around?

The Chargers selected Melvin Gordon with the 15th pick of the draft last year, thinking he’d spark their running game, and they got very little return on their investment. There were offensive line issues, but he definitely struggled with decision making, as well as fumbling 6 times. New offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt says getting Gordon going is one of his primary goals.

What, though, are the odds of that happening? That is, when a team selects a running back in the first round, thinking his going to be the next big thing, at one point do we re-assess and determine said player probably in hindsight should have been selected in the third or fourth round?

Gordon did bust an above-average number of long runs last year. And he was definitely held back by a poor line – the team’s other runners weren’t any more effective carrying the ball. And note that Gordon caught 89 percent of the passes they threw to him last year, the highest rate in the league among all running backs with at least 30 targets. So there’s that.

But Gordon never really looked like a first-round guy. And as I look back at past drafts, when this kind of player isn’t effective in his first year, over two thirds of the time he’s also not much better in his second season.

Since 1990, 46 running backs selected in the first round have finished with less than 1,000 total yards (rushing and receiving). Of those guys, only 11 came back in their second season to go over 1,000. For ballpark purposes (and I have these guys in bold) I would say 13 of the 46 were good, productive fantasy backs in their second seasons.

I’m not calling Gordon a bust, but the jury remains out on him.

FIRST-ROUND FLOPS IN SECOND SEASON
YearPlayer1st YrRunRecTotalTD
1990Rodney Hampton(729-4)1059283134210
1990Blair Thomas(824-2)7281959234
1990Dexter Carter(677-1)3792536324
1990Steve Broussard(614-4)4491205695
1990Darrell Thompson(265-2)471715421
1991Jarrod Bunch(8-0)501505514
1991Harvey Williams(594-3)262242861
1992Tommy Vardell(497-0)6441517954
1992Tony Smith(343-2)0001
1992Vaughn Dunbar(627-3)0000
1993Garrison Hearst(282-1)169492181
1993Robert Smith(510-2)1061052111
1994Greg Hill(666-1)667457121
1994William Floyd(450-6)2373485853
1995Napoleon Kaufman(552-2)87414310172
1995James Stewart(715-3)72317790010
1995Tyrone Wheatley(272-3)400514513
1995Ki-Jana Carter(0-0)2641694339
1996Lawrence Phillips(660-5)677397168
1996Tim Biakabutuka(229-0)29902992
1998Curtis Enis(517-0)91634012565
1998John Avery(570-3)2124450
2000Shaun Alexander(354-2)1318343166116
2000Ron Dayne(781-5)690677577
2000Trung Canidate(10-0)4411545956
2000Thomas Jones(581-2)3801515315
2001Deuce McAllister(257-2)1388352174016
2001Michael Bennett(908-3)129635116476
2002T.J. Duckett(568-4)7799487311
2003Willis McGahee(0-0)1128169129713
2003Larry Johnson(87-1)58127885911
2004Steven Jackson(862-4)1046320136610
2004Chris Perry(34-0)2793286072
2005Cedric Benson(275-0)647547016
2006Laurence Maroney(939-7)8351169516
2006DeAngelo Williams(814-2)7171758925
2008Rashard Mendenhall(75-0)110826113698
2008Jonathan Stewart(883-10)1133139127211
2008Felix Jones(276-4)6851198043
2008Darren McFadden(784-4)3572456021
2009Donald Brown (450-3)4972057022
2009Beanie Wells (936-7)397744712
2010Ryan Mathews(823-7)109145515466
2010C.J. Spiller(440-1)5612698306
2011Mark Ingram(520-5)602296315
2012David Wilson(392-5)14681541
2015• Melvin Gordon(833-0)????

—Ian Allan

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