As we put together our projections – whether it be for yards, touchdowns, sacks or whatever – let’s keep in mind that teams will get better and worse. And not just a little; some will drastically move. Some of the teams that are terrible will become great, and some of the seeming top-tier talents will crash and burn.
It happens every year.
Look at running games, for example. Not individuals but teams (which are less affected by injuries and age and whatnot). Six years in a row, at least two teams ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing have been able to climb up into the top 10.
Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Arizona led the way last year. Using fantasy scoring (6 points for touchdowns, 1 for every 10 yards), the Cardinals moved from next-to-last to 8th. The Bills skyrocketed from 27th to 1st.
Running games going from bottom 10 to top 10 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Bef Yds | Bef TD | Bef Rk | Aft Yds | Aft TD | Aft Rk |
2001 | Kansas City | 1,465 | 12 | 23rd | 2,008 | 16 | 4th |
2001 | NY Jets | 1,471 | 11 | 24th | 2,054 | 11 | 7th |
2001 | New England | 1,390 | 9 | 26th | 1,793 | 15 | 8th |
2002 | Minnesota | 1,609 | 10 | 25th | 2,507 | 26 | 1st |
2002 | Jacksonville | 1,600 | 11 | 23rd | 2,089 | 19 | 7th |
2002 | Philadelphia | 1,778 | 6 | 27th | 2,220 | 15 | 9th |
2004 | Pittsburgh | 1,488 | 10 | 28th | 2,464 | 16 | 4th |
2004 | NY Jets | 1,635 | 8 | 27th | 2,388 | 15 | 5th |
2004 | New England | 1,607 | 9 | 25th | 2,134 | 15 | 8th |
2004 | NY Giants | 1,559 | 6 | 30th | 1,904 | 18 | 9th |
2005 | Washington | 1,765 | 6 | 27th | 2,183 | 15 | 8th |
2006 | Tennessee | 1,525 | 8 | 27th | 2,214 | 15 | 7th |
2007 | Tampa Bay | 1,523 | 6 | 29th | 1,872 | 15 | 8th |
2007 | Oakland | 1,519 | 5 | 30th | 2,086 | 11 | 10th |
2008 | Atlanta | 1,520 | 7 | 29th | 2,443 | 23 | 2nd |
2008 | NY Jets | 1,701 | 6 | 26th | 2,004 | 20 | 8th |
2010 | Oakland | 1,701 | 7 | 27th | 2,494 | 19 | 1st |
2010 | Houston | 1,475 | 13 | 23rd | 2,042 | 20 | 4th |
2011 | New Orleans | 1,519 | 9 | 29th | 2,127 | 16 | 6th |
2011 | San Francisco | 1,657 | 10 | 23rd | 2,044 | 14 | 9th |
2012 | Washington | 1,614 | 8 | 26th | 2,709 | 22 | 1st |
2012 | Kansas City | 1,893 | 5 | 24th | 2,395 | 9 | 10th |
2013 | Green Bay | 1,702 | 9 | 23rd | 2,136 | 17 | 6th |
2013 | Oakland | 1,420 | 4 | 32nd | 2,000 | 16 | 10th |
2014 | Baltimore | 1,328 | 7 | 30th | 2,019 | 16 | 5th |
2014 | Houston | 1,743 | 7 | 23rd | 2,161 | 12 | 8th |
2014 | New Orleans | 1,473 | 10 | 24th | 1,818 | 16 | 9th |
2015 | Buffalo | 1,482 | 7 | 27th | 2,432 | 19 | 1st |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 1,375 | 7 | 29th | 2,162 | 12 | 7th |
2015 | Arizona | 1,308 | 6 | 31st | 1,917 | 16 | 8th |
Similarly, there will be some clunkers. Most years there will be a team or two that not only drops out of the top 10 but slides all the way down to the bottom 10.
Here are the approximate numbers for this century (again, using fantasy scoring). The 2000 and 2001 seasons only had 31 teams, so there might be a team or two from those years that I have overlooked (“22nd” in those years was a bottom-10 number).
Running games going from top 10 to bottom 10 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Bef Yds | Bef TD | Bef Rk | Aft Yds | Aft TD | Aft Rk |
2000 | Kansas City | 2,082 | 14 | 7th | 1,465 | 12 | 23rd |
2001 | Minnesota | 2,129 | 14 | 9th | 1,609 | 10 | 25th |
2001 | Jacksonville | 2,032 | 18 | 6th | 1,600 | 11 | 23rd |
2002 | New England | 1,793 | 15 | 8th | 1,508 | 9 | 28th |
2002 | St. Louis | 2,027 | 20 | 2nd | 1,405 | 11 | 27th |
2002 | Dallas | 2,184 | 8 | 9th | 1,754 | 7 | 26th |
2002 | Indianapolis | 1,966 | 16 | 5th | 1,561 | 12 | 23rd |
2004 | San Francisco | 2,279 | 16 | 7th | 1,449 | 10 | 28th |
2004 | Philadelphia | 2,015 | 23 | 5th | 1,639 | 10 | 23rd |
2005 | NY Jets | 2,388 | 15 | 5th | 1,328 | 10 | 29th |
2007 | Kansas City | 2,143 | 17 | 6th | 1,248 | 6 | 32nd |
2007 | Atlanta | 2,939 | 9 | 3rd | 1,520 | 7 | 29th |
2008 | Indianapolis | 1,706 | 19 | 7th | 1,274 | 13 | 28th |
2009 | Washington | 2,095 | 12 | 10th | 1,510 | 8 | 29th |
2010 | New Orleans | 2,106 | 21 | 6th | 1,519 | 9 | 29th |
2010 | Miami | 2,231 | 22 | 4th | 1,643 | 8 | 26th |
2011 | Kansas City | 2,627 | 13 | 2nd | 1,893 | 5 | 24th |
2012 | Oakland | 2,110 | 16 | 7th | 1,420 | 4 | 32nd |
2012 | New Orleans | 2,127 | 16 | 6th | 1,577 | 10 | 24th |
2013 | NY Giants | 1,862 | 18 | 8th | 1,332 | 11 | 25th |
2013 | Houston | 2,123 | 19 | 7th | 1,743 | 7 | 23rd |
2014 | Oakland | 2,000 | 16 | 10th | 1,240 | 4 | 32nd |
2014 | Buffalo | 2,307 | 15 | 4th | 1,482 | 7 | 27th |
2015 | Baltimore | 2,019 | 16 | 5th | 1,478 | 8 | 25th |
2015 | San Francisco | 2,176 | 10 | 10th | 1,544 | 7 | 24th |
—Ian Allan