It doesn’t look like a particularly significant year for Strength of Schedule. These things are always subject to develop, but there’s no pairing of divisions that are either unusually strong or unusually weak. That is, the teams with the hardest and easiest schedules shouldn’t be as heavily affected as what we see in a typical year.
I always keep an eye on schedules. I’ve got the all the numbers going back to the early ‘90s, and I’ve studied them over the years.
Entering this year, Dallas and Green Bay project to play the easiest schedules. Each will play 16 games against opponents that went a combined 117-139 last year. For this year, that’s the easiest. But when compared against the last 10 years, that’s not even in the top 35.
EASIEST SCHEDULES OF LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
2008 | New England | 99 | 157 | 0 | .387 |
2015 | Atlanta | 104 | 150 | 2 | .410 |
2009 | Chicago | 105 | 149 | 2 | .414 |
2015 | Indianapolis | 106 | 149 | 1 | .416 |
2015 | Houston | 106 | 148 | 2 | .418 |
2009 | Minnesota | 107 | 148 | 1 | .420 |
2008 | San Diego | 108 | 148 | 0 | .422 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 108 | 146 | 2 | .426 |
2009 | Green Bay | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
2013 | Denver | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2015 | New Orleans | 109 | 145 | 2 | .430 |
2009 | Pittsburgh | 110 | 144 | 2 | .434 |
2015 | Carolina | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
2015 | Tennessee | 111 | 144 | 1 | .436 |
2008 | Oakland | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2009 | Baltimore | 111 | 143 | 2 | .438 |
2014 | Tennessee | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2009 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2011 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2014 | Houston | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | San Francisco | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2006 | Chicago | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2008 | Denver | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2010 | Arizona | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2006 | Green Bay | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2008 | Buffalo | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2008 | New Orleans | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2009 | Cleveland | 114 | 140 | 2 | .449 |
2010 | St. Louis | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2008 | Kansas City | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2010 | San Diego | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2010 | Seattle | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2012 | New England | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2006 | Seattle | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2006 | Minnesota | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2008 | NY Jets | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2009 | Seattle | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2010 | San Francisco | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2011 | Baltimore | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2013 | San Diego | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2016 | Dallas | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2016 | Green Bay | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2007 | Arizona | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2008 | Atlanta | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2013 | Indianapolis | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
2014 | Baltimore | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | Chicago | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | NY Giants | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
Notice, by the way, that the two easiest schedules of the last 10 years didn’t pay great dividends. New England lost their Hall of Fame quarterback in the first half of their first game, and that was a rare year where they didn’t make the playoffs. Atlanta got off to a quick start last year but then fell apart.
At the other end of this deal, it’s similar. Seattle and Tampa Bay (the sister expansion franchises from 1976) project to play the hardest schedules, but schedules that aren’t nearly as hard as what typically grades out as the toughest.
HARDEST SCHEDULES OF LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct. |
2008 | Pittsburgh | 153 | 103 | 0 | .598 |
2008 | Indianapolis | 152 | 104 | 0 | .594 |
2009 | Miami | 152 | 104 | 0 | .594 |
2009 | Carolina | 151 | 104 | 1 | .592 |
2009 | New England | 151 | 105 | 0 | .590 |
2009 | Atlanta | 150 | 105 | 1 | .588 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 148 | 107 | 1 | .580 |
2014 | Oakland | 148 | 108 | 0 | .578 |
2015 | Pittsburgh | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
2009 | Buffalo | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2014 | Denver | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2009 | NY Jets | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
2014 | St. Louis | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
2014 | San Diego | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | San Francisco | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2015 | Cincinnati | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | Seattle | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2015 | San Francisco | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2008 | Jacksonville | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2014 | Kansas City | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2015 | Seattle | 142 | 112 | 2 | .559 |
2006 | New Orleans | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2006 | Tampa Bay | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2007 | Oakland | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2007 | Buffalo | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2010 | Cincinnati | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2013 | Detroit | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2015 | Denver | 138 | 117 | 1 | .541 |
2006 | NY Giants | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2006 | Cincinnati | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2008 | Tennessee | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2008 | Detroit | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2010 | Dallas | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2012 | Denver | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2013 | Carolina | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2015 | Cleveland | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2016 | Seattle | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2016 | Tampa Bay | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2015 | Kansas City | 139 | 116 | 1 | .545 |
2015 | Oakland | 139 | 116 | 1 | .545 |
2008 | Houston | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2008 | Cincinnati | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2008 | Cleveland | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Tennessee | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Houston | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2012 | NY Giants | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2014 | Arizona | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2016 | New Orleans | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2008 | Minnesota | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2008 | Baltimore | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2016 | St. Louis | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2015 | St. Louis | 141 | 114 | 1 | .553 |
2011 | Carolina | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2016 | Atlanta | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2016 | San Francisco | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2009 | New Orleans | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2015 | Arizona | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
—Ian Allan