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Scheduletron

"Easy" schedules this year aren't as easy as usual

It doesn’t look like a particularly significant year for Strength of Schedule. These things are always subject to develop, but there’s no pairing of divisions that are either unusually strong or unusually weak. That is, the teams with the hardest and easiest schedules shouldn’t be as heavily affected as what we see in a typical year.

I always keep an eye on schedules. I’ve got the all the numbers going back to the early ‘90s, and I’ve studied them over the years.

Entering this year, Dallas and Green Bay project to play the easiest schedules. Each will play 16 games against opponents that went a combined 117-139 last year. For this year, that’s the easiest. But when compared against the last 10 years, that’s not even in the top 35.

EASIEST SCHEDULES OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamWLTPct.
2008New England991570.387
2015Atlanta1041502.410
2009Chicago1051492.414
2015Indianapolis1061491.416
2015Houston1061482.418
2009Minnesota1071481.420
2008San Diego1081480.422
2015Tampa Bay1081462.426
2009Green Bay1091461.428
2013Denver1101460.430
2014Indianapolis1101460.430
2015New Orleans1091452.430
2009Pittsburgh1101442.434
2015Carolina1111450.434
2015Tennessee1111441.436
2008Oakland1121440.438
2009Baltimore1111432.438
2014Tennessee1121440.438
2009Arizona1131430.441
2011Arizona1131430.441
2014Houston1131430.441
2009San Francisco1131421.443
2006Chicago1141420.445
2008Denver1141420.445
2010Arizona1141420.445
2006Green Bay1151410.449
2008Buffalo1151410.449
2008New Orleans1151410.449
2009Cleveland1141402.449
2010St. Louis1151410.449
2008Kansas City1161400.453
2010San Diego1161400.453
2010Seattle1161400.453
2012New England1161400.453
2014Jacksonville1161400.453
2006Seattle1171390.457
2006Minnesota1171390.457
2008NY Jets1171390.457
2009Seattle1171390.457
2010San Francisco1171390.457
2011Baltimore1171390.457
2013San Diego1171390.457
2016Dallas1171390.457
2016Green Bay1171390.457
2007Arizona1181380.461
2008Atlanta1181380.461
2013Indianapolis1171372.461
2014Baltimore1181380.461
2016Chicago1181380.461
2016NY Giants1181380.461

Notice, by the way, that the two easiest schedules of the last 10 years didn’t pay great dividends. New England lost their Hall of Fame quarterback in the first half of their first game, and that was a rare year where they didn’t make the playoffs. Atlanta got off to a quick start last year but then fell apart.

At the other end of this deal, it’s similar. Seattle and Tampa Bay (the sister expansion franchises from 1976) project to play the hardest schedules, but schedules that aren’t nearly as hard as what typically grades out as the toughest.

HARDEST SCHEDULES OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamWLTPct.
2008Pittsburgh1531030.598
2008Indianapolis1521040.594
2009Miami1521040.594
2009Carolina1511041.592
2009New England1511050.590
2009Atlanta1501051.588
2009Tampa Bay1481071.580
2014Oakland1481080.578
2015Pittsburgh1471072.578
2009Buffalo1461100.570
2014Denver1461100.570
2009NY Jets1451101.568
2014St. Louis1441111.564
2014San Diego1441120.563
2014San Francisco1441120.563
2015Cincinnati1441120.563
2014Seattle1431121.561
2015San Francisco1431121.561
2008Jacksonville1431130.559
2014Kansas City1431130.559
2015Seattle1421122.559
2006New Orleans1381180.539
2006Tampa Bay1381180.539
2007Oakland1381180.539
2007Buffalo1381180.539
2010Cincinnati1381180.539
2013Detroit1381180.539
2015Denver1381171.541
2006NY Giants1391170.543
2006Cincinnati1391170.543
2008Tennessee1391170.543
2008Detroit1391170.543
2010Dallas1391170.543
2012Denver1391170.543
2013Carolina1381162.543
2015Cleveland1381162.543
2016Seattle1391170.543
2016Tampa Bay1391170.543
2015Kansas City1391161.545
2015Oakland1391161.545
2008Houston1401160.547
2008Cincinnati1401160.547
2008Cleveland1401160.547
2010Tennessee1401160.547
2010Houston1401160.547
2012NY Giants1401160.547
2014Arizona1401160.547
2016New Orleans1401160.547
2008Minnesota1411150.551
2008Baltimore1411150.551
2016St. Louis1411150.551
2015St. Louis1411141.553
2011Carolina1421140.555
2016Atlanta1421140.555
2016San Francisco1421140.555
2009New Orleans1421131.557
2015Arizona1421131.557

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index