North Dakota State's Carson Wentz is widely considered to be the best quarterback in this draft class, with California's Jared Goff a notch behind. Both are near certain to be top-10 picks; maybe top-5 or even 1-2. As we noted last week, teams have done a good job evaluating those prospects in recent years; far more hits than misses on passers selected that early.
With Goff, one red flag is the fact that he threw 13 interceptions in his final season at college. Over the last 20 years, there have been 53 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Twenty-four of those passers threw double-digit interceptions in their final college season. Fewer than a third of those passers, so far, have gone on to have solid NFL careers.
It's not a killer -- Matt Ryan, both Mannings and Ben Roethlisberger have gone on to have great careers -- but it's a concern. On Goff's behalf, note that many of the flops were selected outside the top 10: Ramsey, McNown, Weeden, Manuel.
First-round quarterbacks from the last 20 years (plus this year's trio of likely first-rounders), sorted by interceptions their final year of college, are presented below.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 1996-PRESENT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | College | Team | Att | Com | PaYds | TD | Int |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Boston College | Atl. | 654 | 388 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | Florida State | T.B. | 467 | 305 | 3907 | 25 | 18 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman | Florida | Chi. | 503 | 287 | 3402 | 22 | 17 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | Texas A&M | Mia. | 531 | 327 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch | Kentucky | Clev. | 553 | 400 | 4275 | 36 | 15 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman | Tulane (La.) | Buff. | 422 | 251 | 3077 | 33 | 14 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | California | ??? | 529 | 341 | 4719 | 43 | 13 | |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | Clev. | 429 | 300 | 4114 | 37 | 13 |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | Oklahoma State | Clev. | 564 | 408 | 4727 | 37 | 13 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey | Tulane (La.) | Wash. | 449 | 256 | 2935 | 22 | 13 |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington | Marshall | NYJ | 433 | 292 | 4006 | 38 | 12 |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning | Tennessee | Ind. | 477 | 287 | 3819 | 36 | 11 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | Florida State | Buff. | 387 | 263 | 3397 | 23 | 10 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Stanford | Ind. | 404 | 288 | 3517 | 37 | 10 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | Southern California | NYJ | 366 | 241 | 3207 | 34 | 10 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Georgia | Det. | 383 | 235 | 3459 | 25 | 10 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Texas | Tenn. | 325 | 212 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | Mississippi | S.D. | 441 | 275 | 3600 | 29 | 10 |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | Miami (Ohio) | Pitt. | 495 | 342 | 4486 | 37 | 10 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | Southern California | Cin. | 489 | 309 | 3942 | 33 | 10 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | Marshall | Jac. | 491 | 331 | 4268 | 30 | 10 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller | California | Balt. | 421 | 225 | 2815 | 28 | 10 |
| 1999 | 12 | Cade McNown | UCLA | Chi. | 323 | 188 | 3130 | 23 | 10 |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | Washington State | S.D. | 375 | 210 | 3637 | 33 | 10 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | Central Florida | Jac. | 382 | 259 | 3581 | 25 | 9 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Missouri | Jac. | 475 | 301 | 3186 | 16 | 9 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | Washington | Tenn. | 332 | 184 | 2265 | 17 | 9 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | Vanderbilt (Tenn.) | Den. | 462 | 273 | 3073 | 21 | 9 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder | Florida State | Minn. | 299 | 184 | 2044 | 20 | 8 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | Kansas State | T.B. | 382 | 224 | 2945 | 20 | 8 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Louisiana State | Oak. | 342 | 232 | 3129 | 28 | 8 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Southern California | Ariz. | 431 | 283 | 3815 | 28 | 8 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | California | G.B. | 316 | 209 | 2566 | 24 | 8 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | Auburn | Car. | 280 | 185 | 2854 | 30 | 7 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | Notre Dame | Clev. | 467 | 289 | 3426 | 37 | 7 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | Auburn | Wash. | 270 | 188 | 2700 | 20 | 7 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | North Carolina State | NYG | 483 | 348 | 4491 | 34 | 7 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr | Fresno State | Hou. | 476 | 308 | 4299 | 42 | 7 |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith | Oregon | Cin. | 325 | 191 | 3307 | 30 | 7 |
| 1999 | 11 | Daunte Culpepper | Central Florida | Minn. | 402 | 296 | 3690 | 28 | 7 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | Wash. | 406 | 291 | 4293 | 37 | 6 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick | Virginia Tech | Atl. | 161 | 87 | 1234 | 8 | 6 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | Florida | Den. | 314 | 213 | 2895 | 21 | 5 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | Delaware | Balt. | 521 | 331 | 4263 | 23 | 5 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington | Oregon | Det. | 322 | 186 | 2415 | 23 | 5 |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb | Syracuse | Phil. | 251 | 157 | 2134 | 22 | 5 |
| 1997 | 26 | Jim Druckenmiller | Virginia Tech | S.F. | 250 | 142 | 2070 | 17 | 5 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz | North Dakota State | ??? | 208 | 130 | 1651 | 17 | 4 | |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch | Memphis | ??? | 443 | 296 | 3776 | 28 | 4 | |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | Tenn. | 445 | 304 | 4454 | 42 | 4 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | Minn. | 427 | 303 | 3970 | 31 | 4 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | Utah | S.F. | 317 | 214 | 2952 | 32 | 4 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | St.L. | 69 | 39 | 562 | 2 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson