I like Alfred Morris. I like the way he runs, and I think he’ll fit nicely into that Dallas system, running behind that great offensive line. I am aware that Jerry Jones says Darren McFadden will remain the starter, but I still like Morris.
McFadden has had a lot of problems with durability, so one scenario is that it’s an injury that lifts Morris into the lineup (and then they get comfortable with him in there). Or perhaps he just outplays McFadden and slowly takes over.
I have also toyed around with the idea that they’ll use Morris in goal-line situations. He seems to be a better, more physical short-yardage runner. McFadden, recall, often got pulled in goal-line situations when he was in Oakland – they liked Michael Bush for a lot of years.
But looking at the numbers, they don’t clearly support the idea that Morris is better than McFadden in goal-line situations.
I got the numbers out for the last three years. For Morris, he was successful on 19 of 28 carries when Washington needed one yard to either score a touchdown or keep a drive alive (that is, third-and-one or fourth-and-one). That’s pretty close to average.
During the same three-year period, McFadden went 16 of 23 on those plays (that’s with Oakland and Dallas). That’s 70 percent, and that’s a slight notch ahead of Morris.
These are just numbers, of course. My gut still tells me Morris would be a little better in that role. But it’s not something that can just be presented as a given fact.
Here are the totaled numbers for the 34 running backs with at least 20 attempts in these situations.
| "AND ONE" RUSHING, 2013-15 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Doug Martin | 20 | 24 | 83.3% |
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 29 | 82.8% |
| Joique Bell | 26 | 32 | 81.3% |
| DeMarco Murray | 43 | 56 | 76.8% |
| Ryan Mathews | 21 | 28 | 75.0% |
| C.J. Anderson | 16 | 22 | 72.7% |
| Trent Richardson | 18 | 25 | 72.0% |
| LeSean McCoy | 29 | 41 | 70.7% |
| James Starks | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| Jamaal Charles | 23 | 33 | 69.7% |
| Darren McFadden | 16 | 23 | 69.6% |
| Jeremy Hill | 20 | 29 | 69.0% |
| Lamar Miller | 22 | 32 | 68.8% |
| Alfred Morris | 19 | 28 | 67.9% |
| LeVeon Bell | 26 | 39 | 66.7% |
| Fred Jackson | 22 | 33 | 66.7% |
| Eddie Lacy | 28 | 43 | 65.1% |
| Rashad Jennings | 22 | 34 | 64.7% |
| Matt Forte | 29 | 45 | 64.4% |
| Arian Foster | 17 | 27 | 63.0% |
| Steven Jackson | 20 | 32 | 62.5% |
| Latavius Murray | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| Frank Gore | 27 | 44 | 61.4% |
| Chris Ivory | 30 | 49 | 61.2% |
| Stevan Ridley | 12 | 20 | 60.0% |
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 22 | 59.1% |
| Marshawn Lynch | 26 | 45 | 57.8% |
| Mike Tolbert | 15 | 26 | 57.7% |
| Justin Forsett | 11 | 20 | 55.0% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 17 | 31 | 54.8% |
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 33 | 54.5% |
| Andre Williams | 12 | 22 | 54.5% |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
On this chart, by the way, I removed quarterbacks. Otherwise, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton would have finished 1st and 2nd. Tom Brady and Joe Flacco also would have been near the top, appearing between Bell and Murray.
—Ian Allan