Fantasy Index

Factoid

Team scoring

Tracking the top 5 offenses from each of the last 10 years

Things change in the NFL. We know that. The tendency is that when a player or team posts really big numbers, there will be some cooling off the next season. But it also has to work the other way. Those big teams and players have to come from somewhere – including unlikely places.

So take for this mini study the top 50 offenses from the last 10 years. Actually the top 5 from each year, since I wanted each season equally represented. And Carolina and San Diego tied for 5th in scoring in 2011, so I snuck in one extra team.

Then look at where those teams came from. That is, how they did the previous year.

Of these 51 teams, under half of them also placed in the top 5 in scoring the previous year. Just under half – 24 teams – and I’ve got them in bold. They’re what you might call the repeaters.

Of the remaining 27 teams, one third at least placed in the top 10 the previous year. So modest improvement for that group.

But there is still a sizeable chunk of teams left – 18 of 51, who went from being outside the top 10 in scoring to moving all the way into the top 5. The big improvers. I’ve added a black dot in front of those team names. They include two of the key fantasy teams from last year, Carolina and Arizona, who moved up from 19th and 24th in scoring to the top 2 spots. With the Panthers, I think their success was mostly due to Cam Newton getting better, but they also were helped (I think) by a pretty easy schedule. With Arizona, the key difference was Carson Palmer being available for the entire season; they were clicking along fine the previous season until he got hurt.

HIGHEST SCORING TEAMS (2006-2015)
YearTeamPointsRnkPrevRnk
2013Denver60614812
2007New England58913857
2011Green Bay560138810
2012New England55715133
2011• New Orleans547238411
2010New England51814276
2011New England51335181
2009New Orleans51014631
2015• Carolina500133919
2006San Diego49214185
2015• Arizona489231024
2014Green Bay48614178T
2014Denver48226061
2012• Denver481230925
2011• Detroit474436215
2014Philadelphia47434424
2009• Minnesota470237912
2014New England46844443
2014Dallas46754395
2015New England46534684
2008• New Orleans463137912T
2009Green Bay46134195
2012New Orleans46135472
2007Dallas45524254
2009San Diego45444392
2007Indianapolis45034272T
2013• Chicago445237516
2013New England44435571
2013• Philadelphia442428029
2010San Diego44124544
2013• Dallas439537615
2010Philadelphia43934295
2008San Diego43924125
2012• Washington436428826
2007• Green Bay435430122
2010Indianapolis43544167
2012Green Bay43355601
2009Philadelphia42954166
2006• Chicago4272T26026T
2008• NY Giants4273T37314
2006Indianapolis4272T4392
2008Arizona4273T4047
2006• Dallas425432515
2015Pittsburgh4234T4367
2015Seattle4234T39410
2008Green Bay41954354
2010• Atlanta414536313
2006• New Orleans413523531
2007San Diego41254921
2011• Carolina4065T19632
2011San Diego4065T4412

For 2016, whatever offenses you think are going to dominate, keep in mind there should be some teams moving up into that top group. And not just slight movers, but probably a couple of teams from outside the top 10.

It’s a league of change.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index