Things change in the NFL. We know that. The tendency is that when a player or team posts really big numbers, there will be some cooling off the next season. But it also has to work the other way. Those big teams and players have to come from somewhere – including unlikely places.
So take for this mini study the top 50 offenses from the last 10 years. Actually the top 5 from each year, since I wanted each season equally represented. And Carolina and San Diego tied for 5th in scoring in 2011, so I snuck in one extra team.
Then look at where those teams came from. That is, how they did the previous year.
Of these 51 teams, under half of them also placed in the top 5 in scoring the previous year. Just under half – 24 teams – and I’ve got them in bold. They’re what you might call the repeaters.
Of the remaining 27 teams, one third at least placed in the top 10 the previous year. So modest improvement for that group.
But there is still a sizeable chunk of teams left – 18 of 51, who went from being outside the top 10 in scoring to moving all the way into the top 5. The big improvers. I’ve added a black dot in front of those team names. They include two of the key fantasy teams from last year, Carolina and Arizona, who moved up from 19th and 24th in scoring to the top 2 spots. With the Panthers, I think their success was mostly due to Cam Newton getting better, but they also were helped (I think) by a pretty easy schedule. With Arizona, the key difference was Carson Palmer being available for the entire season; they were clicking along fine the previous season until he got hurt.
| HIGHEST SCORING TEAMS (2006-2015) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Rnk | Prev | Rnk |
| 2013 | Denver | 606 | 1 | 481 | 2 |
| 2007 | New England | 589 | 1 | 385 | 7 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 560 | 1 | 388 | 10 |
| 2012 | New England | 557 | 1 | 513 | 3 |
| 2011 | • New Orleans | 547 | 2 | 384 | 11 |
| 2010 | New England | 518 | 1 | 427 | 6 |
| 2011 | New England | 513 | 3 | 518 | 1 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 510 | 1 | 463 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Carolina | 500 | 1 | 339 | 19 |
| 2006 | San Diego | 492 | 1 | 418 | 5 |
| 2015 | • Arizona | 489 | 2 | 310 | 24 |
| 2014 | Green Bay | 486 | 1 | 417 | 8T |
| 2014 | Denver | 482 | 2 | 606 | 1 |
| 2012 | • Denver | 481 | 2 | 309 | 25 |
| 2011 | • Detroit | 474 | 4 | 362 | 15 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 474 | 3 | 442 | 4 |
| 2009 | • Minnesota | 470 | 2 | 379 | 12 |
| 2014 | New England | 468 | 4 | 444 | 3 |
| 2014 | Dallas | 467 | 5 | 439 | 5 |
| 2015 | New England | 465 | 3 | 468 | 4 |
| 2008 | • New Orleans | 463 | 1 | 379 | 12T |
| 2009 | Green Bay | 461 | 3 | 419 | 5 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 461 | 3 | 547 | 2 |
| 2007 | Dallas | 455 | 2 | 425 | 4 |
| 2009 | San Diego | 454 | 4 | 439 | 2 |
| 2007 | Indianapolis | 450 | 3 | 427 | 2T |
| 2013 | • Chicago | 445 | 2 | 375 | 16 |
| 2013 | New England | 444 | 3 | 557 | 1 |
| 2013 | • Philadelphia | 442 | 4 | 280 | 29 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 441 | 2 | 454 | 4 |
| 2013 | • Dallas | 439 | 5 | 376 | 15 |
| 2010 | Philadelphia | 439 | 3 | 429 | 5 |
| 2008 | San Diego | 439 | 2 | 412 | 5 |
| 2012 | • Washington | 436 | 4 | 288 | 26 |
| 2007 | • Green Bay | 435 | 4 | 301 | 22 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | 435 | 4 | 416 | 7 |
| 2012 | Green Bay | 433 | 5 | 560 | 1 |
| 2009 | Philadelphia | 429 | 5 | 416 | 6 |
| 2006 | • Chicago | 427 | 2T | 260 | 26T |
| 2008 | • NY Giants | 427 | 3T | 373 | 14 |
| 2006 | Indianapolis | 427 | 2T | 439 | 2 |
| 2008 | Arizona | 427 | 3T | 404 | 7 |
| 2006 | • Dallas | 425 | 4 | 325 | 15 |
| 2015 | Pittsburgh | 423 | 4T | 436 | 7 |
| 2015 | Seattle | 423 | 4T | 394 | 10 |
| 2008 | Green Bay | 419 | 5 | 435 | 4 |
| 2010 | • Atlanta | 414 | 5 | 363 | 13 |
| 2006 | • New Orleans | 413 | 5 | 235 | 31 |
| 2007 | San Diego | 412 | 5 | 492 | 1 |
| 2011 | • Carolina | 406 | 5T | 196 | 32 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 406 | 5T | 441 | 2 |
For 2016, whatever offenses you think are going to dominate, keep in mind there should be some teams moving up into that top group. And not just slight movers, but probably a couple of teams from outside the top 10.
It’s a league of change.
—Ian Allan