It’s not easy hitting on rookie receivers. This year, there were four selected in the first round – Corey Coleman to the Browns, then three in a row later in the round. None look particularly promising relative to other rookie receivers we’ve seen over the year. That is, when A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper came out, there was buzz involved. That’s not the case this year.
Anyway, for ballpark purposes, I thought I’d get the recent first-rounders out and look at the success rates. Entering this year, 66 had been chosen in the first round. I pulled up the numbers for each of those guys, including the rank of how they finished in their rookie year.
Ends up 6 of the 66 ranked in the top 20. Under 10 percent. Two of those were studs that everyone was excited about – Green and Julio Jones. There were three in 2014, but one of those (Odell Beckham Jr.) looked shaky at best after sitting out all of camp with a hamstring injury. Evans and Benjamin showed some promise in the preseason.
Of the remaining receivers, 11 didn’t make the top 20 but at least cracked the top 30, so they had some value.
So for ballpark purposes, you’re looking at 17 of 66, which is about 1 in 4.
So without giving any real thought to the 2016 players themselves, where they’re headed or how they’ll be used, it would be reasonable to expect one of these four rookies this year to finish in the top 30.
I think that sounds about right. Certainly expectations should be low for Josh Doctson and Will Fuller. I think those guys will be rotational, contributor-type options in their first year. Fuller probably will hit on a couple of bombs, but tough to envision him making it into the top 30.
I like Coleman’s elusiveness and toughness after the catch, but he’s playing in Cleveland and will need development. Treadwell is hooked to a quarterback with a notoriously weak arm.
My gut tells me none of these guys will be top-30 receivers, but there’s a decent chance that I’m wrong on one of them, who sneaks into the top 30.
In this chart, I’ve got the top-20 receivers in bold and the guys who made the top 30 with a black ball. I’m showing catches, receiving yards, rushing yards, total touchdowns (including kick returns) and fantasy points. The final number shows where they ranked among wide receivers in said year.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS -- WORTH THE BOTHER? | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Rec | Run | TD | Points | Rank |
| 2000 | 4 | • Peter Warrick, Cin. | 51 | 592 | 148 | 7 | 116.0 | 27 |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 22 | 273 | 0 | 0 | 27.3 | 94 |
| 2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor, Balt. | 28 | 276 | 11 | 3 | 46.7 | 74 |
| 2000 | 21 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 48 | 678 | 0 | 3 | 85.8 | 51 |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 28 | 1 | 24.2 | 100 |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell, Chi. | 34 | 415 | 0 | 4 | 65.5 | 60 |
| 2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson, Sea. | 39 | 536 | 13 | 1 | 60.9 | 64 |
| 2001 | 15 | Rod Gardner, Wash. | 46 | 741 | 16 | 4 | 99.7 | 39 |
| 2001 | 16 | Santana Moss, NYJ | 2 | 40 | -6 | 0 | 3.4 | 149 |
| 2001 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 21 | 283 | -4 | 1 | 33.9 | 89 |
| 2001 | 30 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 27 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 87 |
| 2002 | 13 | Donte Stallworth, N.O. | 42 | 594 | 2 | 8 | 107.6 | 40 |
| 2002 | 19 | Ashley Lelie, Den. | 35 | 525 | 40 | 2 | 68.5 | 67 |
| 2002 | 20 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 23 | 319 | 11 | 1 | 39.0 | 94 |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 22 | 243 | 17 | 3 | 44.0 | 89 |
| 2003 | 3 | • Andre Johnson, Hou. | 66 | 976 | -10 | 4 | 120.6 | 24 |
| 2003 | 17 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 35 | 438 | 0 | 1 | 49.8 | 84 |
| 2004 | 3 | • Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 58 | 780 | 14 | 8 | 127.4 | 30 |
| 2004 | 7 | • Roy Williams, Det. | 54 | 817 | 1 | 8 | 129.8 | 29 |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 27 | 268 | 0 | 1 | 36.8 | 98 |
| 2004 | 13 | • Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 843 | 85 | 9 | 146.8 | 24 |
| 2004 | 15 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1193 | 30 | 7 | 164.3 | 14 |
| 2004 | 29 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 7 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 12.1 | 136 |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 7 | 160 | 0 | 1 | 22.0 | 112 |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 31 | 422 | 0 | 6 | 78.2 | 53 |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson, Minn. | 31 | 346 | 0 | 2 | 46.6 | 82 |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams, Det. | 35 | 282 | 0 | 1 | 34.2 | 97 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 55 | 492 | 13 | 2 | 62.5 | 68 |
| 2005 | 22 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 38 | 482 | 7 | 3 | 66.9 | 64 |
| 2005 | 27 | Roddy White, Atl. | 41 | 543 | 0 | 1 | 60.3 | 70 |
| 2006 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 13 | 3 | 101.7 | 38 |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 48 | 756 | 52 | 5 | 110.8 | 36 |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. | 34 | 420 | 3 | 3 | 60.3 | 73 |
| 2007 | 23 | • Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 0 | 5 | 129.5 | 25 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20 | 188 | 9 | 1 | 25.7 | 109 |
| 2007 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37 | 576 | 3 | 3 | 75.9 | 61 |
| 2008 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 12 | 289 | 20 | 4 | 54.9 | 75 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey , Oak. | 9 | 124 | 19 | 1 | 20.3 | 115 |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree , S.F. | 48 | 625 | 0 | 2 | 74.5 | 65 |
| 2009 | 19 | Jeremy Maclin , Phil. | 55 | 762 | -7 | 4 | 99.5 | 40 |
| 2009 | 22 | • Percy Harvin , Minn. | 60 | 790 | 135 | 8 | 140.5 | 20 |
| 2009 | 29 | • Hakeem Nicks , NYG | 47 | 790 | 8 | 6 | 115.8 | 28 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt , Tenn. | 42 | 701 | 0 | 3 | 88.1 | 50 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 1 | 2 | 40.4 | 95 |
| 2010 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 0 | 8 | 104.1 | 42 |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1057 | 53 | 7 | 153.0 | 14 |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 56 | 8 | 149.5 | 17 |
| 2012 | 5 | • Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 23 | 5 | 120.8 | 29 |
| 2012 | 13 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 45 | 562 | 0 | 2 | 68.2 | 69 |
| 2012 | 20 | Kendall Wright, Tenn. | 64 | 626 | 4 | 4 | 87.0 | 56 |
| 2012 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 20 | 325 | 0 | 1 | 38.5 | 101 |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 40 | 418 | 151 | 6 | 92.9 | 50 |
| 2013 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 0 | 2 | 92.2 | 51 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 45 | 469 | 158 | 9 | 116.7 | 33 |
| 2013 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, K.C. | 8 | 130 | 6 | 0 | 13.6 | 134 |
| 2014 | 4 | • Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 8 | 6 | 135.0 | 26 |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1051 | 0 | 12 | 177.1 | 11 |
| 2014 | 12 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 91 | 1305 | 35 | 12 | 206.0 | 6 |
| 2014 | 20 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 73 | 4 | 86.3 | 57 |
| 2014 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 0 | 9 | 154.8 | 16 |
| 2015 | 4 | • Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | -3 | 6 | 142.7 | 23 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 2015 | 14 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 26 | 494 | 0 | 3 | 67.4 | 69 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 0 | 1 | 34.3 | 101 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 17 | 1 | 30.2 | 108 |
—Ian Allan