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Strength of schedule

How much of a difference does an easy schedule make?

I’m not a huge fan of Strength of Schedule, but it’s something I look at from time to time. It can make a slight difference in offensive performance. Just not an overwhelming amount.

Consider, for example, the teams that historically have played the league’s easiest schedules. Below you’ll see a chart showing the three easiest schedules for each of the last 13 years – 39 teams, with the expected average number of points allowed. That’s based on how defenses played the previous year. And then you’ve got how the schedule actually turned out – how many points were allowed by those same defenses, on average, in their 240 combined games against other teams.

Overall, the easy average going in was 23.1 points per game. But by the end of the year, the actual total was 22.4 points.

Of those 39 schedules that were suppose to be easy, 15 ended up being top-5 (easy) schedules. Five of them went the opposite way, becoming instead bottom-5 (difficult) schedules.

EASIEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2003
YearTeamExpActRnk
2014Indianapolis24.822.815
2016Dallas24.8??
2015Tampa Bay24.822.917
2014Detroit24.623.54
2014Miami24.621.629
2012Atlanta24.424.41
2015Carolina24.323.312
2015Atlanta24.324.04
2013Denver24.023.216
2003Chicago23.922.41
2012New Orleans23.922.126
2009Seattle23.823.63
2003Seattle23.821.84
2016Minnesota23.7??
2012Tampa Bay23.723.39
2016Chicago23.7??
2009San Francisco23.619.331
2013Dallas23.524.97
2013Kansas City23.425.15
2009Arizona23.320.329
2011Washington23.322.912
2003Oakland23.321.69
2011Tennessee23.122.118
2011Miami22.923.010
2005Arizona22.721.83
2008San Francisco22.623.64
2005Philadelphia22.620.815
2005St. Louis22.621.82
2010Washington22.522.810
2010Dallas22.522.413
2010San Francisco22.522.812
2008New England22.423.09
2008Buffalo22.423.45
2004Tampa Bay22.322.92
2007Carolina22.121.815
2004Denver22.023.01
2007Tampa Bay21.922.74
2006Pittsburgh21.818.931
2004Tennessee21.822.013
2007Atlanta21.821.520
2006Miami21.720.025
2006Arizona21.621.83

Now consider instead the three hardest schedule for each year. The numbers play out in the same kind of way. Average going in is 20.4 points per game. But after the smoke clears, it’s risen to 21.4 points.

Recall that the easy average ended up being 22.4, so the overall average is likely about 21.9. So we’re down to talking about an estimated half of an NFL point per game. That’s within about 2 percent of what you would expect.

Not a real big difference.

There is that slight twist, though, than when you pick from easiest schedules, you’re more likely to maybe get an easy schedule. Of the “easy” schedules, there was the 15-5 ratio of easy (top-5) versus hard (bottom-5) schedules. And with these 39 hard schedules, there’s a 1-12 ratio of top-5 versus bottom-5 schedules.

If you expand out to top-10 vs. bottom-10 schedules, these 39 easy points have a 21-6 ratio, while the hardest schedules are almost the exact flip – 6-19.

But I think our fantasy resources are better spent focusing on who’s winning jobs, who’s really looking good in the preseason games, and whatnot.

HARDEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2003
YearTeamExpActRnk
2007Buffalo18.922.19
2006Detroit18.920.519
2004Cincinnati19.019.331
2003New Orleans19.120.820
2006Tampa Bay19.520.520
2007NY Jets19.521.716
2007Miami19.521.617
2004Miami19.620.428
2003Washington19.619.430
2006Oakland19.721.111
2004Pittsburgh19.820.230
2003Atlanta19.920.222
2010Cincinnati20.119.832
2010Cleveland20.220.728
2010Miami20.320.827
2005New Orleans20.420.323
2012Cincinnati20.422.814
2008Detroit20.520.626
2009Miami20.522.317
2005Kansas City20.620.716
2005NY Giants20.621.26
2015Cincinnati20.722.421
2008Cincinnati20.719.232
2012Baltimore20.822.225
2015Pittsburgh20.821.332
2012Buffalo20.822.323
2008Indianapolis20.921.324
2011Detroit20.923.19
2009NY Jets20.921.422
2009Denver21.022.615
2015San Francisco21.123.311
2011Denver21.123.47
2011Minnesota21.123.74
2013St. Louis21.221.629
2016New England21.2??
2016San Francisco21.2??
2013New Orleans21.422.028
2013Baltimore21.424.59
2016Miami21.4??
2014Denver21.520.931
2014Oakland21.820.832
2014St. Louis22.321.827

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index