ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Which offseason storyline will have the biggest impact on the upcoming fantasy season?
PAUL CHARCHIAN
The single most important offseason story line is the ongoing drama with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not only was Fitzpatrick a top-10 quarterback last year, but he keyed monster seasons from Brandon Marshall (WR3) and Eric Decker (WR11). As important as Fitzpatrick is, the bigger issue is the enormous drop off to Geno Smith, the worst starting quarterback in the league. In two years with Smith as the starter, the Jets’ top two receivers ranked WR28 and WR85 in 2014, and WR63 and WR87 in 2013. Compared to Fitzpatrick’s 2015 season, Smith nets a whopping 56 fewer passing yards per game, a full touchdown less, and half an interception more. And if you think Smith is going to win fantasy games with his feet, you’re wrong. He only rushes for four additional yards and .1 rushing touchdowns per game.
Charchian is the President of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, an international organization dedicated to the advancement of the fantasy sports business industry. He is also the director of LeagueSafe.com.
ALAN SATTERLEE
Without question, it's the possibility of teams taking a more aggressive approach and going for the two-point play after touchdowns instead of the extra point. It would be truly revolutionary both in terms of the evolution of the NFL and an instant sea change on the fantasy landscape. Pittsburgh, in particular, could come out and just go for two nearly after all of the time or most of the time, as they have mentioned is a possibility, and something they practice daily. It makes sense with their aggressive coaches (including offensive coordinator Todd Haley) and given how successful they were last season at doing it, converting on 72.7% of two-point attempts (Pittsburgh set the NFL record for two-point plays last year). If so, this will have a really significant bump up in Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy projection. I could see Green Bay and Seattle going for two a lot also. Who knows, but maybe we are on the edge of a massive change in the way the game is played.
Satterlee is a co-owner and senior writer for Dynasty Football Warehouse. DFW is comprehensive site covering dynasty, redraft, IDP and Daily formats. DFW has a large writing crew with many people from the DFW community contributing to the insights and discussion. Alan is also the Fantasy Football Insider for the Charlotte Observer and is syndicated in a few other newspapers in the southeast.
JODY SMITH
Now that we have finally gotten definitive word that Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the season, that shakes up things, not only for the Patriots, but for fantasy drafts. Brady is still playing at an elite level, but missing five crucial games (including New England's Week 9 bye) makes him plummet down the ranks. Not only are we now missing a potential top-5 fantasy quarterback, but Brady's absence will almost certainly have a negative affect on all of the Patriots skill-position players. By all accounts Jimmy Garoppolo has looked solid and quite capable of filling in for the Patriots, but Brady is an all-time great and is still playing at the top of his game. It's only fair to assume there will at least be a slight drop off in production for New England's offense in September. The good news is that Brady now becomes a valuable late-round pick for fantasy owners that can handle the wasted roster spot for the season's first month. After that, a motivated-on-revenge Brady is likely to return to the fantasy elite and that makes him an extremely valuable commodity.
Smith is a senior writer and analyst for Gridiron Experts, a website devoted to providing fantasy football content, advice and strategy. It was established in 2008.
IAN ALLAN
As far as new players on new teams, I’ve got two in my top 30 overall. The two starting running backs in Texas; I've got them as the Nos. 6-7 running backs on my board. With Ezekiel Elliott, he seems to be a pretty talented runner, and he’s going to the team that has by far the best offensive line in the league. Lamar Miller isn’t as heralded, but his situation is similarly good. In Bill O’Brien’s first year, Houston ranked 5th in rushing. They went with a pass-crazy approach for the first half of last season, but after they settled down, they were 7th in rushing in the second half of last season. Running back is a position of change, and I think both Elliott and Miller are taking spots in the top 10 at that coveted position this year.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
DAVID DOREY
The situation in New York with Ryan Fitzpatrick is absolutely critical to the fantasy fortunes of Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall (and the rushing game as well). He simply must re-sign or all Jets take a step down. Both Marshall and Decker had tremendous stats in 2015 while the Jets offense took off to levels unseen in years if not decades. Matt Forte’s outlook depends on it as well. If the Jets have to go with Geno Smith, it’ll be back to the same disappointing production of so many recent years.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
SAM HENDRICKS
Tom Brady and his inevitable 4-game suspension. Here we go again. How far does Tom "Terrific" drop? I have seen him ranked as high as QB6 and as low as QB29. My ranking? QB13. And what of Gronk? Can Jimmy Garoppolo stay upright long enough to get him the ball? Jimmy is fine on the short stuff when not pressured. But everyone is probably going to bring the house against him. That cannot be good for the Gronk. Then again maybe that is all Garoppolo can do is dink and dunk it to Gronk all day long. I see Belichick pushing the run first mentality in the first four games.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 25 year fantasy football veteran who participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). He is drafting live in the FFPC in Vegas this year. He won the Fantasy Index Open in 2013. Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
MICHAEL NAZAREK
Who will start at quarterback for the New York Jets? The fantasy futures of both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker could depend upon if the Jets can re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
ANDY RICHARDSON
The ongoing running back storyline in Miami has been fascinating. First they made little effort to bring back Lamar Miller. Then they swung and missed with C.J. Anderson. The draft brought a third-rounder in Kenyan Drake, but one who figures to be a 3rd-down back. So now they add Arian Foster, who could be a three-down, pass-catching all-purpose back for them -- until he gets hurt. Once that happens, Jay Ajayi could be a strong fantasy starter. Foster, Ajayi and perhaps Drake will be drafted in every league, and one of those guys might be a key starter for the team that rolls the dice with them. One of them should definitely out perform where he's selected; just hope you pick the right guy.
Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.