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Strength of schedule

Difficulty of schedule using projected points

There was a request with the Strength of Schedule item I posted earlier. A couple of readers wanted to see the expected difficulty of schedule built not on what happened last year, but on how defenses are expected to perform in 2016. The Raiders and Jaguars, for example, are expected to be a lot better defensively this year. It’s logical, therefore, to incorporate that into our model.

Andy Richardson does the defensive projections for the site. He decides on the expected number of points that will be allowed by each defense. (I then go through the list every few weeks, asking why X, Y and Z aren’t a little higher or why A, B and C aren’t a little lower. We haggle over it and eventually get it done.)

If we take those forecasted points and plug them into the 2016 season, it works out this way. (I’m showing the first 15 games for each team; most fantasy leagues don’t use Week 17, so I just left those games out.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Points)
TeamPoints
Dallas352.6
Chicago352.1
NY Giants350.6
Pittsburgh349.5
Cincinnati349.1
Washington346.4
Denver346.2
Tennessee346.2
Tampa Bay345.8
Baltimore345.8
Philadelphia345.6
Minnesota344.4
Miami343.8
Detroit343.8
Carolina343.2
Oakland342.4
Green Bay342.3
Los Angeles342.1
Cleveland341.6
San Diego341.5
NY Jets340.9
Jacksonville337.2
Seattle336.7
Houston336.3
Arizona336.1
New Orleans335.8
Atlanta334.3
San Francisco333.8
Buffalo333.8
Kansas City330.4
New England328.8
Indianapolis328.4

Interpreting: the Cowboys, Bears and Giants project to face the softest defenses, and the Steelers and Washington aren’t far behind.

The Colts, Patriots and Kansas City, if our forecasts are correct, will be saddled with the most difficult schedules. Buffalo, San Francisco and Atlanta are also down on that end of the scale.

You’re welcome.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index