Ian Allan

September 07, 2016

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Crystal ball shows a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl

Seattle and New England in a Super Bowl rematch. How’s that sound? I have gone through the 256 regular-season games, assigning win probabilities to each, and to me, it looks like the Seahawks and Patriots have the best chance of securing home-field advantage.

If my calculations are correct, the standings at the end of the year should look something like this …

2016 NFL STANDINGS
Team	Win	Loss
Seattle	11.82	4.18
New England	11.73	4.27
Carolina	11.65	4.35
Arizona	11.06	4.94
Green Bay	10.48	5.52
Washington	9.74	6.26
Houston	9.69	6.31
Pittsburgh	9.60	6.40
Cincinnati	9.41	6.59
Dallas	9.02	6.98
Minnesota	8.88	7.12
Baltimore	8.66	7.34
Kansas City	8.37	7.63
NY Giants	8.37	7.63
Denver	8.35	7.66
San Diego	8.21	7.79
Oakland	8.12	7.88
Jacksonville	7.89	8.11
Tennessee	7.68	8.32
NY Jets	7.65	8.35
Detroit	7.04	8.96
Tampa Bay	6.98	9.02
Indianapolis	6.93	9.07
Buffalo	6.90	9.10
Atlanta	6.40	9.60
Miami	6.28	9.72
New Orleans	5.96	10.04
Chicago	5.75	10.25
Los Angeles	5.70	10.31
Philadelphia	4.27	11.73
San Francisco	3.72	12.28
Cleveland	3.70	12.30

This is built from my usual process of forecasting each of the 256 regular-season games. For each, you give each team some portion of a win and some portion of a loss. San Francisco will play at Carolina, Arizona and Seattle. The 49ers grade down at almost zero for each of those games, with the Panthers, Cardinals and Seahawks collecting almost full wins.

When the matchups are closer, the win gets divvied up. If an 8-8 type team is playing at another 8-8 opponent, I would tend to give the home field a 54 percent chance of winning. (In the NFL, home teams historically have won 54 percent of the time, so that’s apparently about the value of home-field advantage.)

This is my stab at it. I have the Seahawks, Panthers, Patriots and Texans getting first-round byes. Other division winners include the Packers, Washington, Steelers and Kansas City. Wild cards would be Arizona, Dallas, Cincinnati and Baltimore.

The AFC West projects to be the closest division, with all four teams finishing with between 8.12 and 8.37 wins.

The two teams originally from the All America Football Conference, Cleveland and San Francisco, project to be picking first in next spring’s draft.

As usual with this kind of thing, let me know where you think I’m off.

GAME-BY-GAME PROJECTIONS
Wk	Team	Prob	Opponent	Prob
1	Miami	9%	at Seattle	91%
1	Chicago	17%	at Houston	83%
1	Buffalo	38%	at Baltimore	62%
1	Pittsburgh	41%	at Washington	59%
1	New England	41%	at Arizona	59%
1	San Diego	43%	at Kansas City	57%
1	Cleveland	43%	at Philadelphia	57%
1	NY Giants	44%	at Dallas	56%
1	Detroit	45%	at Indianapolis	55%
1	Carolina	47%	at Denver	53%
1	Tampa Bay	48%	at Atlanta	52%
1	Minnesota	50%	at Tennessee	50%
1	Cincinnati	52%	at NY Jets	48%
1	Green Bay	53%	at Jacksonville	47%
1	Los Angeles	55%	at San Francisco	45%
1	Oakland	56%	at New Orleans	44%
2	San Francisco	1%	at Carolina	99%
2	Miami	20%	at New England	80%
2	Tampa Bay	24%	at Arizona	76%
2	Indianapolis	35%	at Denver	65%
2	New Orleans	36%	at NY Giants	64%
2	Atlanta	36%	at Oakland	64%
2	Philadelphia	39%	at Chicago	61%
2	Dallas	40%	at Washington	60%
2	Kansas City	41%	at Houston	59%
2	Jacksonville	44%	at San Diego	56%
2	Tennessee	47%	at Detroit	53%
2	Cincinnati	48%	at Pittsburgh	52%
2	NY Jets	51%	at Buffalo	49%
2	Green Bay	54%	at Minnesota	46%
2	Baltimore	74%	at Cleveland	26%
2	Seattle	80%	at Los Angeles	20%
3	San Francisco	1%	at Seattle	99%
3	Detroit	22%	at Green Bay	78%
3	Minnesota	30%	at Carolina	70%
3	Chicago	30%	at Dallas	70%
3	Cleveland	32%	at Miami	69%
3	Los Angeles	40%	at Tampa Bay	60%
3	NY Jets	41%	at Kansas City	59%
3	Denver	42%	at Cincinnati	58%
3	Houston	44%	at New England	56%
3	Baltimore	47%	at Jacksonville	53%
3	Atlanta	47%	at New Orleans	53%
3	Oakland	48%	at Tennessee	52%
3	San Diego	50%	at Indianapolis	50%
3	Washington	54%	at NY Giants	46%
3	Arizona	66%	at Buffalo	34%
3	Pittsburgh	75%	at Philadelphia	25%
4	Los Angeles	10%	at Arizona	90%
4	Cleveland	10%	at Washington	90%
4	Buffalo	24%	at New England	76%
4	Miami	28%	at Cincinnati	72%
4	Tennessee	31%	at Houston	69%
4	New Orleans	32%	at San Diego	68%
4	NY Giants	38%	at Minnesota	62%
4	Kansas City	42%	at Pittsburgh	58%
4	Oakland	45%	at Baltimore	55%
4	Detroit	51%	at Chicago	49%
4	Jacksonville	53%	vs. Indianapolis	47%
4	Denver	55%	at Tampa Bay	45%
4	Seattle	68%	at NY Jets	32%
4	Dallas	75%	at San Francisco	25%
4	Carolina	76%	at Atlanta	24%
5	Tampa Bay	18%	at Carolina	82%
5	NY Giants	30%	at Green Bay	70%
5	Atlanta	32%	at Denver	69%
5	Philadelphia	33%	at Detroit	67%
5	NY Jets	38%	at Pittsburgh	62%
5	Chicago	38%	at Indianapolis	62%
5	San Diego	44%	at Oakland	56%
5	Buffalo	50%	at Los Angeles	50%
5	Tennessee	51%	at Miami	49%
5	Washington	52%	at Baltimore	48%
5	Houston	52%	at Minnesota	48%
5	Cincinnati	52%	at Dallas	48%
5	Arizona	85%	at San Francisco	15%
5	New England	96%	at Cleveland	4%
6	Philadelphia	13%	at Washington	87%
6	Atlanta	14%	at Seattle	86%
6	Cleveland	20%	at Tennessee	80%
6	San Francisco	21%	at Buffalo	79%
6	NY Jets	28%	at Arizona	72%
6	Cincinnati	28%	at New England	72%
6	Indianapolis	30%	at Houston	70%
6	Dallas	35%	at Green Bay	65%
6	Los Angeles	40%	at Detroit	60%
6	Kansas City	47%	at Oakland	53%
6	Denver	48%	at San Diego	52%
6	Baltimore	49%	at NY Giants	51%
6	Jacksonville	58%	at Chicago	42%
6	Pittsburgh	64%	at Miami	36%
6	Carolina	78%	at New Orleans	22%
7	Cleveland	13%	at Cincinnati	87%
7	Chicago	15%	at Green Bay	85%
7	New Orleans	32%	at Kansas City	69%
7	Los Angeles	36%	vs. NY Giants	64%
7	Indianapolis	46%	at Tennessee	54%
7	Buffalo	46%	at Miami	54%
7	Seattle	48%	at Arizona	52%
7	Oakland	48%	at Jacksonville	52%
7	Baltimore	50%	at NY Jets	50%
7	San Diego	52%	at Atlanta	48%
7	Houston	52%	at Denver	48%
7	New England	58%	at Pittsburgh	42%
7	Washington	59%	at Detroit	41%
7	Tampa Bay	64%	at San Francisco	36%
7	Minnesota	75%	at Philadelphia	25%
8	Philadelphia	23%	at Dallas	77%
8	Detroit	25%	at Houston	75%
8	Arizona	41%	at Carolina	59%
8	San Diego	44%	at Denver	56%
8	Jacksonville	48%	at Tennessee	52%
8	Washington	50%	vs. Cincinnati	50%
8	Oakland	53%	at Tampa Bay	47%
8	Kansas City	53%	at Indianapolis	47%
8	Minnesota	68%	at Chicago	32%
8	Green Bay	68%	at Atlanta	32%
8	NY Jets	70%	at Cleveland	30%
8	New England	78%	at Buffalo	22%
8	Seattle	80%	at New Orleans	20%
9	Buffalo	18%	at Seattle	82%
9	Indianapolis	25%	at Green Bay	75%
9	Philadelphia	28%	at NY Giants	72%
9	Detroit	32%	at Minnesota	69%
9	Jacksonville	42%	at Kansas City	58%
9	Atlanta	43%	at Tampa Bay	57%
9	Tennessee	44%	at San Diego	56%
9	Denver	47%	at Oakland	53%
9	Pittsburgh	49%	at Baltimore	51%
9	NY Jets	52%	at Miami	48%
9	New Orleans	56%	at San Francisco	44%
9	Dallas	74%	at Cleveland	26%
9	Carolina	82%	at Los Angeles	18%
10	San Francisco	2%	at Arizona	98%
10	Cleveland	18%	at Baltimore	82%
10	Kansas City	25%	at Carolina	75%
10	Miami	35%	at San Diego	65%
10	Los Angeles	36%	at NY Jets	64%
10	Chicago	37%	at Tampa Bay	63%
10	Dallas	39%	at Pittsburgh	61%
10	Minnesota	40%	at Washington	60%
10	Seattle	41%	at New England	59%
10	Houston	53%	at Jacksonville	47%
10	Cincinnati	55%	at NY Giants	45%
10	Atlanta	57%	at Philadelphia	43%
10	Denver	62%	at New Orleans	38%
10	Green Bay	64%	at Tennessee	36%
11	Philadelphia	2%	at Seattle	98%
11	New Orleans	12%	at Carolina	88%
11	Buffalo	30%	at Cincinnati	70%
11	Chicago	35%	at NY Giants	65%
11	Tampa Bay	36%	at Kansas City	64%
11	Tennessee	47%	at Indianapolis	53%
11	Miami	47%	at Los Angeles	53%
11	Baltimore	47%	at Dallas	53%
11	Green Bay	50%	at Washington	50%
11	Jacksonville	52%	at Detroit	48%
11	Arizona	52%	at Minnesota	48%
11	Houston	59%	vs. Oakland	41%
11	Pittsburgh	78%	at Cleveland	22%
11	New England	94%	at San Francisco	6%
12	San Francisco	31%	at Miami	69%
12	San Diego	34%	at Houston	66%
12	Los Angeles	46%	at New Orleans	54%
12	Kansas City	47%	at Denver	53%
12	Cincinnati	50%	at Baltimore	50%
12	Washington	52%	at Dallas	48%
12	Jacksonville	52%	at Buffalo	48%
12	Tennessee	55%	at Chicago	45%
12	Minnesota	60%	at Detroit	40%
12	Pittsburgh	62%	at Indianapolis	38%
12	Carolina	65%	at Oakland	35%
12	NY Giants	66%	at Cleveland	34%
12	New England	71%	at NY Jets	29%
12	Seattle	75%	at Tampa Bay	25%
12	Arizona	75%	at Atlanta	25%
12	Green Bay	83%	at Philadelphia	17%
13	Los Angeles	7%	at New England	93%
13	Philadelphia	12%	at Cincinnati	88%
13	Miami	32%	at Baltimore	68%
13	NY Giants	38%	at Pittsburgh	62%
13	San Francisco	40%	at Chicago	60%
13	Washington	40%	at Arizona	60%
13	Tampa Bay	40%	at San Diego	60%
13	Buffalo	41%	at Oakland	59%
13	Indianapolis	42%	at NY Jets	58%
13	Dallas	43%	at Minnesota	57%
13	Houston	46%	at Green Bay	54%
13	Carolina	48%	at Seattle	52%
13	Detroit	48%	at New Orleans	52%
13	Denver	49%	at Jacksonville	51%
13	Kansas City	56%	at Atlanta	44%
14	San Diego	20%	at Carolina	80%
14	Baltimore	23%	at New England	77%
14	Chicago	40%	at Detroit	60%
14	New Orleans	41%	at Tampa Bay	59%
14	Oakland	45%	at Kansas City	55%
14	Dallas	48%	at NY Giants	52%
14	Atlanta	48%	at Los Angeles	52%
14	Seattle	49%	at Green Bay	51%
14	Minnesota	50%	at Jacksonville	50%
14	Denver	52%	at Tennessee	48%
14	Houston	56%	at Indianapolis	44%
14	Pittsburgh	58%	at Buffalo	42%
14	NY Jets	68%	at San Francisco	32%
14	Arizona	73%	at Miami	27%
14	Washington	78%	at Philadelphia	22%
14	Cincinnati	78%	at Cleveland	22%
15	New Orleans	10%	at Arizona	90%
15	Los Angeles	15%	at Seattle	85%
15	Philadelphia	23%	at Baltimore	77%
15	San Francisco	30%	at Atlanta	70%
15	Jacksonville	32%	at Houston	68%
15	Indianapolis	33%	at Minnesota	67%
15	Cleveland	33%	at Buffalo	67%
15	Tampa Bay	35%	at Dallas	65%
15	Tennessee	38%	at Kansas City	62%
15	Miami	40%	at NY Jets	60%
15	Detroit	40%	at NY Giants	60%
15	Oakland	47%	at San Diego	53%
15	Pittsburgh	48%	at Cincinnati	52%
15	Carolina	56%	at Washington	44%
15	New England	65%	at Denver	35%
15	Green Bay	75%	at Chicago	25%
16	Atlanta	13%	at Carolina	87%
16	NY Jets	21%	at New England	79%
16	San Francisco	34%	at Los Angeles	66%
16	Indianapolis	36%	at Oakland	64%
16	Detroit	37%	at Dallas	63%
16	Tennessee	42%	at Jacksonville	58%
16	Minnesota	42%	at Green Bay	58%
16	Cincinnati	42%	at Houston	58%
16	Baltimore	42%	at Pittsburgh	58%
16	Miami	43%	at Buffalo	57%
16	Arizona	43%	at Seattle	57%
16	Denver	46%	at Kansas City	54%
16	Tampa Bay	50%	at New Orleans	50%
16	NY Giants	67%	at Philadelphia	33%
16	San Diego	73%	at Cleveland	27%
16	Washington	74%	at Chicago	26%
17	Cleveland	10%	at Pittsburgh	90%
17	Chicago	23%	at Minnesota	77%
17	NY Giants	35%	at Washington	65%
17	Baltimore	41%	at Cincinnati	59%
17	Oakland	45%	at Denver	55%
17	New Orleans	45%	at Atlanta	55%
17	Buffalo	45%	at NY Jets	55%
17	Kansas City	49%	at San Diego	51%
17	Jacksonville	50%	at Indianapolis	50%
17	Houston	59%	at Tennessee	41%
17	Green Bay	65%	at Detroit	35%
17	Dallas	68%	at Philadelphia	32%
17	Carolina	73%	at Tampa Bay	27%
17	Arizona	74%	at Los Angeles	26%
17	New England	78%	at Miami	22%
17	Seattle	91%	at San Francisco	9%

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