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September 11, 2016

A 28-year streak of futility

Easter Island leads BAFL in scoring but can't win the big one

They’re starting the 29th season of the Bronco Alumni Football League today – 12 guys who all went to school at Santa Clara. It’s a well-run league; the guys get together in Tahoe every year for the draft. And I bring the league up because the results don’t seem to be statistically possible.

Of the 12 franchises in the league, only one has never won the championship – the Easter Island Tiki Gods. Yet during the league’s history, he’s scored more points than anyone else. He’s scored 500 more points than all but one of the other owners.

Four teams have scored more than a 1,000 fewer points than Easter Island over the last 28 years, and those franchises have won a combined 12 titles.

How is that statistically even possible?

This is a TD-only league, with the top four teams advancing to head-to-head playoffs.

Anyway, this league has me wondering. Can anybody else out there top this league for some kind of luck element? That is, maybe the lowest-scoring team winning the championship more than anyone else? And are there any other fantasy teams out there that are the all-time leaders in points in their league over 20-plus years without ever winning the championship?

BAFL STANDINGS (1988-2015)
TeamWinLossTiePctPointsTitles
Santa Cruz Great Whites2021663.54912,1494
San Francisco Ballbusters2031793.53111,4441
Vegas Virgins2001832.52211,7993
Silverdale Studmuffins1981852.51711,9031
Phoenix Gila Monsters1881776.51511,2604
Los Angeles Schaefer Men1951855.51311,7961
Rock Creek Spectrum Analyzers1921903.50311,8303
Easter Island Tiki Gods1861954.48812,4380
Redwood City Fog1451634.4719,6111
Capistrano Crime1772035.46611,5943
Canoga Park Grasshoppers1762054.46210,8716
Hollywood Stars1391721.4479,4031

—Ian Allan

14 Reader Comments:

Frank Ferrari

Lake Stevens, WA
2016-09-11T21:52:45Z
Hi Ian. Thanks for all of your hard work. Also of great interest to me is the ability for the Canoga Park Grasshoppers to pull off 6 championships with the second-worst cumulative record in that league. The reason for my interest is that we can't always have the best team every year. But if we can get to the playoffs and then peak during the all-important weeks within the playoffs, we can still take down the hardware.
Ian, I know that those projections are very difficult to predict this early. But I believe that you providing a very early (possibly even pre-draft?) focus on Weeks 14-16 can help us all to make the best of our seasons, in up as well as down years.

Richard Spinella

North Providence, RI
2016-09-12T00:38:59Z
This exemplifys why TD onlys are ridiculous
TDs are one of the most random things in football.
It is the hardest thing to predict especially week to week.

Moishe Steigmann

Glendale, WI
2016-09-12T13:54:34Z
It's a fascinating standings list with too many variables, I think, to come up with viable theories. I have one league, for instance, where I have either won or finished in the bottom two in each of the past five years: that is somewhat purposeful (2QB, 2TE) since I have opted to proverbially zag rather than zig each year. I have another league where two of the ten owners almost always finish in the top-4 in scoring but, combined, have one championship over the past decade. They end up with the deepest and most well-rounded teams each year, which serves them immeasurably well during the regular season to account for byes and injuries. Come the playoffs, however, they're depth loses to a team that has amassed more elite players and a thinner bench. Just some hypotheses to potentially account for the posted standings. Still, fascinating... I wonder how many championship games the Tiki Gods have made. That, by the way, is my measure of a successful season: making it to the final game (or winning the most points scored in a season). Thanks for posting this!!

DAVID DIGREGORIO

Norristown, PA
2016-09-12T14:02:21Z
All things being equal, with a 12 team league he should have won about 2.5 championships in 29 years. To have scored so many more points than every other team without winning a single title is really amazing. I'd have to agree with Richard about the variabilty in TD only formats. Yards and receptions bring more predictability (and skill) to FF.

David Wright

Aliso Viejo, CA
2016-09-12T15:13:50Z
Our league started at Cal State Fullerton and is 29 years old. We have an owner who has been in the league 23 years, made the playoffs 18 times and went to the finals 10 times and lost every single time. It is a non-PPR, TD heavy scoring format with bonus points for length of TD's and no points for rush/rec yards until 80 yards in either category.

Craig Rinne

Lake Worth, FL
2016-09-12T16:15:49Z
That is Bad Luck--remind me to never invest or get on a flight with the Tiki Gods owner. Do they hold their championship in Week 16 or 17 (17 would increase the luck factor)? Although to be under .500 with such a huge point total advantage, over 28 years, is mind-boggling regardless of playoff results.

Adam Bjork

Waunakee, WI
2016-09-12T16:27:56Z
We have an owner who consistently posts highest scores in the league but has never won a championship. He drafts good but based on success he loses interest and isn't as active on the waiver wire nor willing to make trades to make the team better. This has to be a part of it...

JIM MARRON

Westlake, OH
2016-09-12T16:57:19Z
In our league here in Cleveland, Ohio we have 7 of the original 10 owners still in the league after 34 years. We are all friends from high school or college.
We have one original owner who has never won our league.......The Salacious Studs. He has come close in some years to winning it, even to the point where some of us pushed him to make the late season trade that would put him over the top.......but to no avail.
Everyone in our league wants him to win it.

ROBERT JOHNSON

Pearland, TX
2016-09-12T20:04:34Z
Over the years, when I have experimented with building the high scoring potential teams with double-ups and triple ups (the DFS people call them 'stacks'), I find that I usually finish first or second in points scored, with a mediocre head-to-head record 8-8. 7-9, etc. My most memorable experience was a record of 3-12-1 while finishing second in points. There is a school of thought that scoring points is the most important thing in fantasy football, but to do so you have to draft very differently. I tell my friends, including my brother, who like to tout points as most important to go join a league that emphasizes points. Otherwise, draft to win head-to-head. To consistently win head-to-head matchups on a week-to-week basis you have to draft and manage for team balance, with quality depth at the key positions. You will score well, but will have fewer blowout scoring weeks and fewer strikeout weeks.

James Costello

Portland, ME
2016-09-12T22:39:39Z
It's not really that much of an aberration. If this was the ONLY fantasy football league then it's interesting. But since there are hundreds of thousands of fantasy leagues, then the law of numbers would dictate that there would be a few outliers.

ROBERT CHAMBERLIN

Danville, CA
2016-09-13T00:50:39Z
TD-only leagues are garbage, I agree. But as a proud member (and 4-time Champ) of the BAFL, I can explain.

We started the league in the era of USA Today fantasy research and a newsletter sent via U.S. Mail (this evolved to fax in the early 90's). Tradition is paramount in our league, which is why we've kept the format over the years, despite the protests of some coaches. If you can stick together for 29 years, you're doing something right.

As for Coach Easter, he's just not that good, despite his so-called "Scoring Championships." We went from celebrating the "Little 3" to the "Tiny Two" to the "Winless One-der", and I for one hope that Bob continues to live in infamy for many years to come. It's been a great ride.

Christopher KEPLER

Makawao, HI
2016-09-13T09:04:03Z
Would someone please just tell the guy about Fantasy Index???

Philip Haines

Seattle, WA
2016-09-13T17:46:53Z
Welcome to my world. Best regular-season winning percentage all time, fewer losing seasons, fewer non-playoff seasons than any team in our 12 team TD only league, 4 championship appearances, no title. Lost 2014 by tie-breaker (DF Total Yards Allowed, lowest wins). Knocked out of the second playoff round in 2006 when my opponent got the 14 pts. he needed to beat me from 3 TDs by BAL TE Todd Heap (my score in the title game would have been 20 pts more than the winner's). What's more, 9 of the 19 titles have been won by the other 3 guys in my division. And to top it off, I'm even Commissioner. I started the league and established all the rules back in 1997. Oh well, that's just the way it goes I guess. It's still fun....

Mr. Spinella is correct, TD only is hard to predict. That's why those leagues are harder to have success in. But some of us like the challenge.

You can't agree that TD only leagues are garbage Mr. Chamberlin, because Mr. Spinella didn't say that. Why don't you make the conscious decision to know what you're talking about before you talk about it? Just a thought...

John Brower

Raleigh, NC
2016-09-13T20:36:40Z
bottom line, what these teams who never won a title have in common they dont trade or work waiver wire to improve their team
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