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Factoid

New England Patriots

Patriots look like prohibitive favorite in the AFC

The Patriots looked pretty dominant in the regular season – 3rd in scoring and 1st in scoring defense. It doesn’t look like there’s much of a chance of anybody stopping them from making it to the Super Bowl. Or is there?

Looking at past seasons shows there’s a big difference between cruising through the regular season and finishing things off in the playoffs.

In this century, 25 other teams have outscored their opponents by at least 10 points per game in the regular season. Only 4 of those 25 teams went on to win the Super Bowl.

Perhaps more remarkably, 40 percent of those juggernaut teams didn’t even make it to the conference championship game level – 10 of 25.

The Patriots know this better than anybody. They’ve had three of the five most dominant teams of the last 10 years, and none of those teams actually won it all. They lost to the Giants in the Super Bowls following the 2007 and 2011 seasons, and they lost to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship game. They were favored in all three of those games.

Numbers show that of the 25 teams that really crushed people in the regular season, 11 (almost half) made it to the Super Bowl.

For me, I don’t see any way the Patriots lose at home in a week against the Texans, Raiders or Dolphins. I don’t expect they would have much trouble with Kansas City or Pittsburgh either. But historical numbers suggest it’s at least a possibility.

HIGHEST POINT DIFFERENTIAL SINCE 2000
YearTeamW-LPFPADiffResult
2007New England Patriots16-0589274315lost in Super Bowl
2001St. Louis Rams14-2503273230lost in Super Bowl
2012New England Patriots12-4557331226lost in AFC Championship
2011New Orleans Saints13-3547339208lost in playoffs
2013Denver Broncos13-3606399207lost in Super Bowl
2010New England Patriots14-2518313205lost in playoffs
2011Green Bay Packers15-1560359201lost in playoffs
2005Indianapolis Colts14-2439247192lost in playoffs
2012Denver Broncos13-3481289192lost in playoffs
2015Carolina Panthers15-1500308192lost in Super Bowl
2016New England Patriots14-2441250191to be determined
2006San Diego Chargers14-2492303189lost in playoffs
2007Indianapolis Colts13-3450262188lost in playoffs
2013Seattle Seahawks13-3417231186• won Super Bowl
2005Seattle Seahawks13-3452271181lost in Super Bowl
2000Oakland Raiders12-4479299180lost in AFC Championship
2004New England Patriots14-2437260177• won Super Bowl
2015Arizona Cardinals13-3489313176lost in NFC Championship
2002Philadelphia Eagles12-4415241174lost in NFC Championship
2006Chicago Bears13-3427255172lost in Super Bowl
2004Indianapolis Colts12-4522351171lost in playoffs
2011New England Patriots13-3513342171lost in Super Bowl
2009New Orleans Saints13-3510341169• won Super Bowl
2000Baltimore Ravens12-4333165168• won Super Bowl
2012Seattle Seahawks11-5412245167lost in playoffs
2009Green Bay Packers11-5461297164lost in playoffs

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index