The Patriots looked pretty dominant in the regular season – 3rd in scoring and 1st in scoring defense. It doesn’t look like there’s much of a chance of anybody stopping them from making it to the Super Bowl. Or is there?
Looking at past seasons shows there’s a big difference between cruising through the regular season and finishing things off in the playoffs.
In this century, 25 other teams have outscored their opponents by at least 10 points per game in the regular season. Only 4 of those 25 teams went on to win the Super Bowl.
Perhaps more remarkably, 40 percent of those juggernaut teams didn’t even make it to the conference championship game level – 10 of 25.
The Patriots know this better than anybody. They’ve had three of the five most dominant teams of the last 10 years, and none of those teams actually won it all. They lost to the Giants in the Super Bowls following the 2007 and 2011 seasons, and they lost to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship game. They were favored in all three of those games.
Numbers show that of the 25 teams that really crushed people in the regular season, 11 (almost half) made it to the Super Bowl.
For me, I don’t see any way the Patriots lose at home in a week against the Texans, Raiders or Dolphins. I don’t expect they would have much trouble with Kansas City or Pittsburgh either. But historical numbers suggest it’s at least a possibility.
HIGHEST POINT DIFFERENTIAL SINCE 2000 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W-L | PF | PA | Diff | Result |
2007 | New England Patriots | 16-0 | 589 | 274 | 315 | lost in Super Bowl |
2001 | St. Louis Rams | 14-2 | 503 | 273 | 230 | lost in Super Bowl |
2012 | New England Patriots | 12-4 | 557 | 331 | 226 | lost in AFC Championship |
2011 | New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 547 | 339 | 208 | lost in playoffs |
2013 | Denver Broncos | 13-3 | 606 | 399 | 207 | lost in Super Bowl |
2010 | New England Patriots | 14-2 | 518 | 313 | 205 | lost in playoffs |
2011 | Green Bay Packers | 15-1 | 560 | 359 | 201 | lost in playoffs |
2005 | Indianapolis Colts | 14-2 | 439 | 247 | 192 | lost in playoffs |
2012 | Denver Broncos | 13-3 | 481 | 289 | 192 | lost in playoffs |
2015 | Carolina Panthers | 15-1 | 500 | 308 | 192 | lost in Super Bowl |
2016 | New England Patriots | 14-2 | 441 | 250 | 191 | to be determined |
2006 | San Diego Chargers | 14-2 | 492 | 303 | 189 | lost in playoffs |
2007 | Indianapolis Colts | 13-3 | 450 | 262 | 188 | lost in playoffs |
2013 | Seattle Seahawks | 13-3 | 417 | 231 | 186 | • won Super Bowl |
2005 | Seattle Seahawks | 13-3 | 452 | 271 | 181 | lost in Super Bowl |
2000 | Oakland Raiders | 12-4 | 479 | 299 | 180 | lost in AFC Championship |
2004 | New England Patriots | 14-2 | 437 | 260 | 177 | • won Super Bowl |
2015 | Arizona Cardinals | 13-3 | 489 | 313 | 176 | lost in NFC Championship |
2002 | Philadelphia Eagles | 12-4 | 415 | 241 | 174 | lost in NFC Championship |
2006 | Chicago Bears | 13-3 | 427 | 255 | 172 | lost in Super Bowl |
2004 | Indianapolis Colts | 12-4 | 522 | 351 | 171 | lost in playoffs |
2011 | New England Patriots | 13-3 | 513 | 342 | 171 | lost in Super Bowl |
2009 | New Orleans Saints | 13-3 | 510 | 341 | 169 | • won Super Bowl |
2000 | Baltimore Ravens | 12-4 | 333 | 165 | 168 | • won Super Bowl |
2012 | Seattle Seahawks | 11-5 | 412 | 245 | 167 | lost in playoffs |
2009 | Green Bay Packers | 11-5 | 461 | 297 | 164 | lost in playoffs |
—Ian Allan