RAIDERS
Only five teams gained more yards than Oakland in the regular season, and only six scored more points. But with Derek Carr gone, those kind of numbers are gone. This is a below-average offense now, and one that's one the road against an above-average defense. Houston allowed the fewest yards in the league in the regular season and lately has been a top-5 defense against both the run and the pass. They're also a lot better at home, where they went 7-1, allowing only 12 touchdowns in those eight games. We're putting the Raiders down for about 10-17 points, with the offense scoring 1-2 TDs. ... The Raiders would no doubt like to run the ball, easing the pressure

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on a quarterback starting his first game as a pro. And they have some ability to run it. With a good offensive line, they ranked 6th in rushing in the regular season. But Houston is very good against the run. This wasn't the case early in the year, when the Texans seemingly had a bottom-5 run defense -- an average of 135 rushing yards in their first seven games, with 10 TDs. But they've been as good as anyone in the second half of the season, giving up an average of 72 rushing yards in their last nine games, with just 3 rushing touchdowns. So we don't envision the Raiders coming in and simply running them over. It will be a three-man mix in the backfield. Latavius Murray should be their starter, with a chance of getting maybe 50 percent of the work. For the year, he's averaged 56 rushing and 19 receiving yards, with 12 TDs in 14 games. But the Raiders averaged 126 rushing yards in those games, which is way above expectations for this week. When the Raiders beat Houston seven weeks ago, they ran for only 30 yards on 20 carries. And they'll work in other backs. DeAndre Washington has been coming on recently, with 165 rushing yards in his last three games, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. (For whatever it's worth, Washington is from Houston and played his college ball at the local university.) And they'll work in Jalen Richard. Like Washington, Richard is a smaller, more elusive back -- he's averaged 31 rushing and 8 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 2 TDs. Most likely Washington and Richard will combine for more total yards than Murray. We're not excited about any of those backs. ... Connor Cook will start at quarterback, and he might be a little better than expected. He looked surprisingly functional against the Broncos -- better than Matt McGloin, who left with a shoulder injury. Coming off the bench cold against one of the league's best pass defenses, he went 14 of 21 for 150 yards, showing a willingness to attempt some downfield throws. He challenged fairly tight coverage on a 32-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter (a lot of young quarterbacks would have been more interested in checking the ball down or throwing it away in that situation). With Houston having a painfully limited offense, Cook might even be good enough to help the Raiders win this game. Cook, recall, was a far more coveted draft prospect than Dak Prescott. But at the same time, we're talking about a fourth-round rookie who's never started a game. And he's going up against one of the league's best defenses. Houston allowed only 214 passing yards per game in the regular season, 2nd-fewest in the league. In their eight games at home, only one quarterback threw more than 1 TD pass -- Philip Rivers. All of the other quarterbacks who started in this stadium both lost and are currently far more highly regarded than Cook: Dalton, Bortles, Stafford, Luck, Mariota, Cutler and Alex Smith. We'll put him down for about 200 yards and a touchdown. He's a pocket passer, so don't look for him to salvage a good fantasy day by running for 20 yards and maybe a touchdown. ... It's a lesser situation for Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, of course. The Raiders don't have Derek Carr, and he was averaging 262 passing yards, with 28 TDs in 15 games. That experience and passing ability is gone. But at the same time, Cook showed some willingness to take some shots with those receivers in Denver. The Broncos have maybe the league's best cornerbacks, but Cook was sending the ball downfield, connecting on some throws. And with a young quarterback running the offense, he might be more inclined to focus on those main guys. Carr, on the other hand, perhaps was better at finding secondary receivers (specifically, he threw 5 TDs and a pair of 2-point conversions to Seth Roberts). Cooper and Crabtree might now account for more of the offense. Cooper caught only 4 TDs in 15 games with Carr; he's already caught a touchdown in his first half game with Cook. So while we're ranking those wide receivers lower than usual, there comes a pricetag where it makes sense to stick them on the field and see what they can do. Cooper averaged 56 yards in the final 10 games of the regular season, with 4 TDs. Crabtree averaged 63 yards in his last 10 games, with 3 TDs. Roberts averaged 24 yards in those games, with 2 TDs. ... The tight ends aren't a big part of this offense. Clive Walford averaged 22 yards in the second half of the season, with 2 TDs in eight games. Mychal Rivera averaged 15 yards in those games, with no touchdowns. Rivera was open for a big gainer downfield last week, but Cook misfired on the throw, resulting in an interception. ... The regular-season numbers indicate Sebastian Janikowski will be fine. He scored 124 points in the regular season, the Texans allowed 110 to kickers, and the combined total of 234 (7.3 per game) is the 2nd-highest of the week. But the game's in Houston, where this defense plays better, and the Raiders aren't quite the same without Derek Carr. We're slotting Janikowski as a below-average scorer. ... The Raiders Defense gets to work against Brock Osweiler, and that's a good thing -- Osweiler is capable of some hare-brained throws. But he's playing more cautiously now than he did early in the season, when he opened with 8 interceptions in his first six games. Now he's been picked off in only five of his last nine games. They're trying to protect him by running the ball, and he's getting the ball out of his hands -- he's been sacked only 27 times in essentially 14 games. The Raiders, meanwhile, had only 25 sacks in the regular season, the fewest in the entire league (even Cleveland). But we'll call it an above-average situation for interceptions, given that Oakland has 16 and Houston has given away 16, making for the 2nd-best number on the board. Oakland somehow forced 27 fumbles in the regular season, recovering 14 -- 4 more than anyone playing this weekend -- but tough to bank on that happening on Saturday. Jalen Richard had kickoff and punt returns over 45 yards, while the Texans have allowed 2 TDs on kick returns, but the Raiders haven't scored on a kick return in over 5 years. Oakland scored 1 touchdown on a defensive play in the regular season, while Houston allowed one of those scores. The Texans have a limited, methodical offense, so Oakland moves up relative to other defenses if credit is given for allowing under 24 real-life points -- good chance of Houston finishing in the 16-23 point range.