Just four games again, and three of them should be pretty good. I'll spend the least time on the game in New England, sorry Texans, but will try to figure out what's going to happen in the other three, who to start, who to sit, and who to use in various playoff competitions. Let's go.
Seahawks at Falcons: Kind of weird they're sticking this game in the early slot on Saturday, but maybe Bob Kraft had something to do with getting his team into primetime. Nah that's just paranoid I'm sure. Looking into this game I saw that Russell Wilson hasn't really put up big numbers against soft pass defenses this year, but you can't really downgrade him too much -- matchup favorable, likely shootout. And I'd much rather have faith in Wilson than in Thomas Rawls again having a big game. Certainly Wilson will have more rushing yards than the other quarterbacks playing this week. I think Atlanta wins this game, and am saving Julio Jones for next week, but Seattle will be a tough out. I sort of like Taylor Gabriel here, and Jimmy Graham is in all of my daily lineups -- too many? I like Devonta Freeman, but not as much as Matt Ryan and his receivers; Atlanta didn't run particularly well in the earlier meeting. I'm calling it Falcons 34, Seahawks 27.
Texans at Patriots: In a league where I can only use players once throughout the playoffs, I used Lamar Miller last week. And I wish I'd also used DeAndre Hopkins. Because while there is many some chance of those two putting up productive numbers in garbage time, which should start early in the third quarter, it's very hard to see Houston hitting any big plays, and equally hard to see them effectively matriculating the ball down the field, as some announcer used to say. Could you use Hopkins and maybe get 7-8 catches for 85 yards and a meaningless touchdown? Yes. If I were confident of that, I'd go ahead and use him. But he could also have a frustrating, 4 for 43 yard game, pretty much what he had in the regular season in this matchup. With the Patriots, I was all over Blount early in the week. Then he sat out practices with an illness ("You know, this is the cold and flu season"), and I started the cheaper Dion Lewis everywhere. Now Blount is off the injury report and I'm not sure what to do...am using Blount in one lineup, Lewis in another, and avoiding both in a third. But certainly the Patriots will have some success on the ground (I do not care how the Texans have done in recent games at home against mediocre offenses like Cincinnati and Oakland), and both guys could be quite good. The Patriots should win this game easily and start running out the clock early, so the only real question is if the passing game will do enough before that time, and who will benefit. There are enough possible targets that I'm pretty much avoiding most of them in leagues....using Bennett, maybe Edelman, and Brady, and that's it. (Saving all Patriots in the league where you can only use players one time.) Patriots 34, Texans 13.
Packers at Cowboys: This is the marquee matchup, teams whose fans debated who should be called America's Team for some time. Certainly the Cowboys were awesome during the regular season and are home and are rightly favored. But the Packers have been pretty awesome the last 7-8 weeks and won't be overly troubled by playing on the road. Dallas' defense impressed this year, but can they get to Aaron Rodgers? Can they cover all of his receivers? Does it matter that they are great defending the run, with Green Bay not having a running game anyway? Biggest worry for Dallas is that Green Bay gets an early lead and their rookie quarterback starts to press. But if Dallas gets that early lead you could see Ezekiel Elliott running for about 150 yards and 2 TDs. I'm using Elliott on the prospect of a big game and the chance of Dallas losing (so I won't be able to use him after this if so). I also like Dez Bryant against the Green Bay secondary, even though Odell Beckham Jr. went bust last week. For Green Bay, I love Davante Adams and like Randall Cobb; they're going to have to pass a lot and those are the two main cogs. I'm calling it Cowboys 27, Packers 24. But will not be surprised if Green Bay pulls it out with a late drive.
Steelers at Kansas City: The betting line has moved around a bunch on this game. First it was a pick 'em. Then it moved to Kansas City by 2. Right now it's Kansas City by 1. So there was a lot of interest in betting on one team, then the other, then back. I'm wondering if so much has been made of Roethlisberger on the road -- not just by us, but elsewhere -- that the Steelers won't turn that script on its head. Kansas City isn't a shutdown defense. It hasn't tended to come up big in the playoffs, was pretty fortunate to sneak into the No. 2 seed in the AFC. I can't help but think Andy Reid won't use Tyreek Hill enough, and that Mike Tomlin's more aggressive coaching style won't make a difference against the more conservative Reid. If the Steelers don't give the Kansas City defense a lot of opportunities for turnovers and special teams plays, Kansas City's actual offense probably won't do enough. And KC will definitely have problems with LeVeon Bell. I'm picking the mild upset: Steelers 24, Kansas City 20.
And that's it. Feel free to offer up lineup and playoff roster questions, and I'll answer them as best I can. Enjoy the games.