So tomorrow is the Super Bowl, and for the majority of us who aren't diehard Patriots or Falcons fans, we're just hoping for a good game. The good news is that this isn't a game featuring some team that lucked its way in and is going to get blown away, or an absolute juggernaut against which no team can compete. Two really good teams, and a great chance it will be a very enjoyable game.
When the opening line came out, friends of mine were surprised New England was only favored by 3. It speaks to the fact that I think Atlanta has been underestimated all along, and that New England has perhaps been overrated. New England has won 4 Super Bowls, yes, but this dynasty isn't an unstoppable juggernaut. They won three by 3 points, a fourth by 4 points (should have lost) and lost two others.
Tom Brady is a great quarterback and Bill Belichick might be the best head coach, well, ever. But just like some other sports dynasties over the years, they get a considerable advantage over the rest of the field to start each season. The Jets, Dolphins and Bills have stumbled around for two full decades trying to find quarterbacks, coaches, and players. They annually cede the division title to New England somewhere around October, they roll over and let the Patriots win their way into one of the AFC's top seeds, and generally put New England into a situation where two home games against Houston, Kansas City and maybe someone like Pittsburgh gets them into the Super Bowl. If by chance they slip up and need to win in someplace like Denver to get there, or face a team that isn't intimidated like Baltimore, well, suddenly it isn't so easy.
But I digress. The Patriots are a great team and they're either going to win or at worst lose a close one, unlike the mediocre Seahawks team or one-man Packers team Atlanta faced on its way to the Super Bowl. Of course, New England faced Houston and a Steelers team that's lousy away from Heinz Field and has basically two offensive weapons; Atlanta has many more. Guess the point here is that it's two teams that are very good and there's no reason to think it won't be a good, tough game.
Atlanta does not have a great defense, there's no getting around that. It won't frustrate New England's offense like the Giants did twice, or like Seattle did for some of their Super Bowl. Just doesn't have the personnel. I see no reason to think New England won't score early, regularly and often, so the trick is whether Atlanta, facing a very good New England defense, can keep pace. My worry, as mentioned in Ask the Experts, is that New England will score plenty early, Atlanta will either get stopped once or twice or settle for field goals, and New England will get to play with a 10- to 14-point lead for much of the game. That's the game I've predicted; I figure about a 40 percent chance it's instead a back-and-forth game where the lead keeps being exchanged.
For players, I think both quarterbacks, both No. 1 wideouts, and probably both No. 2 wideouts (Hogan and Sanu) will be very good. The tight ends seem afterthoughts. If Martellus Bennett doesn't catch a touchdown, he probably won't have a big game. The running backs will be heavily involved in the passing games -- Freeman, Coleman, Lewis and James White. LeGarrette Blount has appeal if the ball winds up near the goal line, or if New England does in fact play with a lead most of the game. He can run on this defense. But if it's a back-and-forth track meet, I think Lewis and White will play a lot more.
In the league where I can only use a player once throughout the playoffs, I saved all my Patriots, using Falcons last game. So I've got a Brady-Blount-Lewis-Edelman-Hogan-Sanu-Bennett-Gostkowski lineup. I'm in fourth place and the top 3 spots pay out, and I know the teams ahead of me also have most of their Patriots available. But two of them used Lewis already (and one still has Blount and Freeman, so might well sit Lewis), so he's a key player -- my best chance to make up the few points necessary to finish in the money. And while I'm using Sanu, there's a chance one of those teams ahead of me will use Gabriel (and I don't expect the Patriots to make the mistake of letting him sneak deep for a big play).
I'm in several square pools, with some decent numbers (7 and 6 in one) and poor ones (anything involving a 5). At least the 2-point conversion, and the increased likelihood of teams missing an extra point, gives more hope to everyone than they used to have, when multiples of 7 and 3 and 0 and4 were about the only viable numbers. I'm going to a party where it seems there will be enough food to feed a small army should we happen to get snowed in, and after the game I get to watch the reboot of one of my favorite TV shows from recent years, 24, which probably won't be any good, but hey, maybe.
Patriots 34, Falcons 27. Or maybe Falcons 33, Patriots 31. Either way, I'm taking the over and expecting a good game. Enjoy.