NFL teams don’t like selecting running backs in the first round. It’s a position where you can find guys in the later round. But on the other hand, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook look like they could be pretty special, and those kind of guys are nice to have around.
I’m leaving Leonard Fournette out of the discussion for now. He’s a different kind of back, so you’re getting into comparing apples and oranges. McCaffrey and Cook are both smaller, multipurpose backs, and I’m focusing on them here.
I’ve gone through the list of other backs drafted this century who are kind of like them. That is, well-rounded backs who aren’t huge and have good but not electric speed. Clinton Portis and Chris Johnson aren’t on this list, because they have a different kind of speed.
With Cook and McCaffrey, you’re hoping for another LeSean McCoy or Ray Rice. That’s the target.
After looking through the previous 17 drafts in this century, I see 13 running backs who are kind of like these guys. Guys with the same kind of body and speed who were selected in the first and second rounds.
The overall track record, however, hasn’t been great. Rice and McCoy were very good, of course, but it falls off after that. Reggie Bush had 1,000-yard seasons with two teams, but he never lived up to being the No. 2 overall pick of the draft. Giovani Bernard, Joseph Addai, Shane Vereen, Donald Brown and Felix Jones had some success but probably in hindsight should have been drafted a little later than they were.
Here are those backs ordered by their 40-yard dash times. These are all combine times. Bush didn’t run at the combine, but I think he ended up being a little slower than expected. He was supposed to be a sub-4.4 guy, but I think he ended up being more of a 4.5.
| COOK/McCAFFREY COMPS: Measurables | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Ht | Wt | 40 |
| 2006 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 5.11 | 214 | 4.40 |
| 2008 | 55 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 5.08 | 199 | 4.42 |
| 2008 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 5.10 | 207 | 4.44 |
| 2005 | 44 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 5.09 | 214 | 4.46 |
| 2009 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 5.10 | 210 | 4.46 |
| 2002 | 54 | Maurice Morris, Sea. | 5.11 | 208 | 4.48 |
| 2017 | ? | Christian McCaffrey | 5.11 | 202 | 4.48 |
| 2011 | 56 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 5.10 | 205 | 4.49 |
| 2014 | 54 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | 5.09 | 209 | 4.49 |
| 2017 | ? | Dalvin Cook | 5.11 | 213 | 4.49 |
| 2009 | 53 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 5.10 | 198 | 4.50 |
| 2013 | 37 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 5.09 | 208 | 4.53 |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 5.11 | 201 | DNR |
And here the are ranked by their total run-rec yards in their final college season.
On this chart, you’ve got yards per carry, rushing yards, receiving yards, total yards and total touchdowns.
| COOK/McCAFFREY COMPS: Stats | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | YPC | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2017 | ? | Dalvin Cook | 6.1 | 1,765 | 488 | 2,253 | 20 |
| 2008 | 55 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 5.3 | 2,012 | 239 | 2,251 | 25 |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 8.7 | 1,740 | 478 | 2,218 | 18 |
| 2009 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 5.7 | 2,083 | 125 | 2,208 | 18 |
| 2014 | 54 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | 5.7 | 1,870 | 304 | 2,174 | 21 |
| 2005 | 44 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 7.0 | 2,018 | 121 | 2,139 | 15 |
| 2017 | ? | Christian McCaffrey | 6.3 | 1,603 | 310 | 1,913 | 16 |
| 2009 | 53 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 4.8 | 1,488 | 305 | 1,793 | 21 |
| 2013 | 37 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 6.7 | 1,228 | 490 | 1,718 | 17 |
| 2011 | 56 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 5.1 | 1,167 | 209 | 1,376 | 16 |
| 2008 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 8.7 | 1,162 | 176 | 1,338 | 11 |
| 2006 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 4.9 | 911 | 180 | 1,091 | 10 |
| 2002 | 54 | Maurice Morris, Sea. | 5.7 | 960 | 99 | 1,059 | 10 |
—Ian Allan