There's a story about Leonte Carroo in the Miami Herald; the Dolphins' third-round pick a year ago. He seemed to be in line for a potential increased role if the team let Kenny Stills walk in free agency, but Stills was re-signed, joining Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker atop the depth chart. Obviously, it's not a positive for Carroo doing anything in 2017.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 48 other wide receivers selected in the third round. In Year 2, 16 of those players (exactly a third) put up noteworthy numbers in their second season. I'm being generous with the term noteworthy, including every wideout that put up at least 500 receiving yards.
Nearly half (21) of those players did almost nothing at all in Year 2, not even reaching 300 receiving yards. Only two of that group (the most productive two, as it turns out, Emmanuel Sanders and James Jones) went on to be solid NFL players. The rest quickly disappeared from the league or are well on their way. (Some of the ones with 500-plus yards did, too, like Damian Williams and Earl Bennett.)
So recent history suggests last year's third rounders (Carroo and Braxton Miller, in Houston) have about a 1-in-3 chance of putting up good numbers in Year 2. (Houston, note, has struck out several times in that round in the last decade.) And if they don't do much in 2017, their careers probably won't amount to very much, either.
Third-rounders from the last decade, sorted by Year 2 receiving yards, are below.
THIRD-ROUND WIDEOUTS, 2007-2016 - 2ND-YEAR STATS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draft | Pick | Player | No | Yds | TD |
2009 | 84 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 60 | 1257 | 10 |
2012 | 92 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 82 | 1083 | 5 |
2014 | 91 | John Brown, Ariz. | 65 | 1003 | 7 |
2008 | 95 | Mario Manningham, NYG | 57 | 822 | 5 |
2013 | 76 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 77 | 783 | 4 |
2014 | 90 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 64 | 733 | 6 |
2008 | 70 | Earl Bennett, Chi. | 54 | 717 | 2 |
2013 | 79 | Markus Wheaton, Pitt. | 53 | 644 | 2 |
2013 | 74 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 37 | 621 | 8 |
2010 | 78 | Brandon LaFell, Car. | 36 | 613 | 3 |
2010 | 87 | Eric Decker, Den. | 44 | 612 | 8 |
2015 | 69 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 41 | 597 | 2 |
2010 | 77 | Damian Williams, Tenn. | 45 | 592 | 5 |
2010 | 88 | Andre Roberts, Ariz. | 51 | 586 | 2 |
2011 | 79 | Leonard Hankerson, Wash. | 38 | 543 | 3 |
2015 | 76 | Chris Conley, K.C. | 44 | 530 | 0 |
2012 | 83 | Mohamed Sanu, Cin. | 47 | 455 | 2 |
2015 | 87 | Sammie Coates, Pitt. | 21 | 435 | 2 |
2013 | 92 | Stedman Bailey, St.L. | 30 | 435 | 1 |
2009 | 83 | Brandon Tate, N.E. | 24 | 432 | 5 |
2008 | 97 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. | 51 | 432 | 3 |
2009 | 91 | Deon Butler, Sea. | 36 | 385 | 4 |
2007 | 99 | Johnnie Lee Higgins, Oak. | 22 | 366 | 7 |
2012 | 69 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 23 | 361 | 2 |
2015 | 94 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 44 | 348 | 3 |
2007 | 76 | Jason Hill, S.F. | 30 | 317 | 2 |
2014 | 86 | Josh Huff, Phil. | 27 | 312 | 3 |
2010 | 82 | Emmanuel Sanders, Pitt. | 22 | 288 | 2 |
2007 | 78 | James Jones, G.B. | 20 | 274 | 1 |
2011 | 78 | Austin Pettis, St.L. | 30 | 261 | 4 |
2007 | 79 | Mike Sims-Walker, Jac. | 16 | 217 | 0 |
2008 | 81 | Early Doucet, Ariz. | 17 | 214 | 1 |
2012 | 68 | DeVier Posey, Hou. | 15 | 155 | 0 |
2015 | 70 | Jaelen Strong, Hou. | 14 | 131 | 0 |
2007 | 73 | Jacoby Jones, Hou. | 3 | 81 | 2 |
2009 | 85 | Ramses Barden, NYG | 5 | 64 | 0 |
2007 | 75 | Laurent Robinson, Atl. | 5 | 52 | 0 |
2007 | 74 | Yamon Figurs, Balt. | 1 | 43 | 1 |
2013 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin, Buff. | 1 | 42 | 0 |
2010 | 90 | Taylor Price, N.E. | 2 | 39 | 0 |
2009 | 82 | Derrick Williams, Det. | 3 | 30 | 0 |
2009 | 87 | Patrick Turner, Mia. | 2 | 26 | 0 |
2011 | 83 | Jerrel Jernigan, NYG | 3 | 22 | 0 |
2010 | 84 | Jordan Shipley, Cin. | 4 | 14 | 0 |
2007 | 80 | Paul Williams, Tenn. | 1 | 7 | 0 |
2011 | 82 | Vincent Brown, S.D. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2009 | 99 | Juaquin Iglesias, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2008 | 84 | Harry Douglas, Atl. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016 | 86 | Leonte Carroo, Mia. | ? | ? | ? |
2016 | 85 | Braxton Miller, Hou. | ? | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson