The Rams might still salvage Jared Goff, but he was pretty miserable last year, looking remarkably unprepared to step on the field. It’s fair to wonder if he’d even be a first-round pick if he were tossed back into the upcoming draft.
Goff played in a catch-and-throw system at Cal, making his NFL transition more difficult. In college, he didn’t line up under center, call plays or read complex coverages. He also needs to hit the weight room and add about 15 pounds.
It could still happen for him. He’s got some throwing talent, and they appear to have a good cast of offensive coaches around him. Sean McVay supposedly is an up-and-coming genius, and quarterbacks coach Greg Olson has a lot of experience working with young quarterbacks. (Olson helped to get Derek Carr launched but was fired halfway through last season in Jacksonville).
Goff is definitely a fixer upper, and it’s troubling just how bad he was last year. Normally, if a quarterback is going to be good, he will show more in his first season.
In this century, 32 quarterbacks selected in the first round have attempted at least 100 passes in their first season. All but two of those guys averaged more yards per pass attempt than Goff.
This is an obscure stat, but it seems to be more telling than others (completion percentage, TD-int ratio and passer rating) that are more commonly used. That is, if you look at which quarterbacks went on to have good careers, they are separated more using this metric.
Using yards per attempt, if you look at the top 11 quarterbacks on the chart below, almost all of them went on to have viable careers. If you look at the bottom 20, only three of them hit.
Identifying hits and misses, of course, is a subjective exercise. I didn’t call Sam Bradford and Ryan Tannehill successes, and maybe I should have. Similarly, Jay Cutler could have been called a miss rather than a hit. Blake Bortles might still pan out.
When assessing whether to tag a quarterback, I asked myself whether the player in hindsight deserved to be a first-round choice. That is, if we were to wind back the clock, would the player again be selected in the first round? Cutler hasn’t had a great career, but he’s been a starter for a lot of years. Bradford has played well enough the last two years that he is looking pretty similar to Cutler nowadays.
But the point here is that Goff is way down there. Not a death sentence. The two quarterbacks who were even worse using this metric (Eli Manning and Alex Smith) both managed to salvage their careers. But not promising start for Goff.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2000 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Per Att |
| 2004 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 66% | 2,621 | 17 | 11 | 8.88 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 66% | 3,200 | 20 | 5 | 8.14 |
| 2008 | • Matt Ryan, Atl. | 61% | 3,440 | 16 | 11 | 7.93 |
| 2011 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 60% | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 7.84 |
| 2015 | • Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 62% | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 7.62 |
| 2015 | • Jameis Winston, T.B. | 58% | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 7.56 |
| 2006 | • Jay Cutler, Den. | 59% | 1,001 | 9 | 5 | 7.31 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 64% | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 7.26 |
| 2012 | • Andrew Luck, Ind. | 54% | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 6.98 |
| 2001 | • Michael Vick, Atl. | 44% | 785 | 2 | 3 | 6.95 |
| 2008 | • Joe Flacco, Balt. | 60% | 2,971 | 14 | 12 | 6.94 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 58% | 3,294 | 12 | 13 | 6.81 |
| 2002 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 52% | 1,539 | 9 | 8 | 6.78 |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 57% | 2,547 | 11 | 12 | 6.76 |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 57% | 2,819 | 14 | 16 | 6.74 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 54% | 2,444 | 12 | 20 | 6.71 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 57% | 3,385 | 14 | 17 | 6.55 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 59% | 1,972 | 11 | 9 | 6.44 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 54% | 1,855 | 10 | 18 | 6.40 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 54% | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 6.37 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 62% | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 6.23 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 52% | 2,199 | 12 | 13 | 6.16 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 59% | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 6.12 |
| 2009 | • Matthew Stafford, Det. | 53% | 2,267 | 13 | 20 | 6.01 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 60% | 3,512 | 18 | 15 | 5.95 |
| 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 52% | 2,592 | 9 | 15 | 5.84 |
| 2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 52% | 1,260 | 7 | 9 | 5.63 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 51% | 2,214 | 12 | 11 | 5.36 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 50% | 2,294 | 12 | 16 | 5.35 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 55% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 5.31 |
| 2005 | • Alex Smith, S.F. | 51% | 875 | 1 | 11 | 5.30 |
| 2004 | • Eli Manning, NYG | 48% | 1,043 | 6 | 9 | 5.29 |
Also note that Carson Wentz is on this list. We were discussing him earlier in the week, debating how successful he is going to be. Wentz showed flashes as a rookie and was saddled with lesser wide receivers, but he averaged only 6.23 yards per pass attempt. That made him below-average on this list, just behind the likes of Mark Sanchez, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder. Not saying that Wentz is going to be a bust like those guys, but I don’t think it’s a given that he’s on the fast track to being a good quarterback who puts up above-average stats every year.
—Ian Allan