I’m not sure if I should admit this, but I kind of like Brian Hoyer. I think he’s better than people realize, and I like the fit with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Hoyer is 16-16 as a starter in his career.
Hoyer’s numbers have been sneaky good at times. He went over 300 yards in all four of his complete games last year, with 6 TDs. That was with the lowly Bears.
The previous season he averaged 237 yards in 10 games with the Texans, with 17 TDs. Hoyer played with the Browns in 2014, so he’s got some background with Shanahan.
Hoyer is a smaller guy and has had problems with injuries. That’s a problem. In three starts in the last two years he was knocked out of action with injuries. But if we set aside those games (which isn’t fair, but I’m doing it anyway), Hoyer has averaged 282 passing yards in his last 12 full games, with 23 TD passes – almost two per week.
Also just 6 interceptions in those 12 games, and he’s been good at avoiding sacks. With just 4 sacks last year versus 200 attempts last year, he was the best in the league at avoiding sacks.
Using 4 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 20 passing yards, Hoyer has compiled the 8th-best passing numbers of the last two years. That’s per game, and weighing him against quarterbacks who’ve started at least half of the time. Hard to believe, but he actually comes in slightly above Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford. Really.
I’m not saying I’m drafting Hoyer. Note that the chart below doesn’t include rushing production, and Hoyer doesn’t run at all. He’s in the Manning-Rivers style of quarterback. He falls a few notches in the vast majority of fantasy scoring systems (and even farther when the injury-shorted games are included).
But there could be a little something there. We’ll have to see what other quarterback the 49ers bring in before camp begins, but Hoyer might make sense as a last-round gamble pick in typical fantasy drafts.
| PER-GAME PASSING STATS (2015-16) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Pts |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 31 | 325 | 2.23 | .84 | 25.2 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 28 | 297 | 2.29 | .32 | 24.0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 25 | 295 | 1.88 | 1.12 | 22.3 |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 22 | 278 | 2.09 | 1.14 | 22.3 |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 32 | 298 | 1.84 | .72 | 22.3 |
| Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 31 | 287 | 1.97 | .81 | 22.2 |
| Philip Rivers, S.D. | 32 | 287 | 1.94 | 1.06 | 22.1 |
| Brian Hoyer, Hou.-Chi. | 12 | 282 | 1.92 | .50 | 21.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 32 | 258 | 2.22 | .47 | 21.8 |
| Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 32 | 284 | 1.69 | .72 | 20.9 |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 32 | 264 | 1.91 | .94 | 20.8 |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 31 | 256 | 1.94 | .61 | 20.5 |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 32 | 268 | 1.75 | .72 | 20.4 |
| Blake Bortles, Jac. | 32 | 260 | 1.81 | 1.06 | 20.3 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 32 | 258 | 1.72 | .59 | 19.8 |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 32 | 254 | 1.56 | 1.03 | 19.0 |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 26 | 273 | 1.31 | 1.04 | 18.9 |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 31 | 237 | 1.74 | .77 | 18.8 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 29 | 257 | 1.48 | .52 | 18.8 |
| Sam Bradford, Phi.-Min. | 29 | 262 | 1.34 | .66 | 18.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 29 | 248 | 1.48 | .83 | 18.4 |
| Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 27 | 231 | 1.67 | .70 | 18.2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ | 27 | 234 | 1.56 | 1.07 | 17.9 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 229 | 1.44 | .25 | 17.2 |
| Jay Cutler, Chi. | 20 | 236 | 1.25 | .80 | 16.8 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 1.00 | .88 | 15.8 |
| Alex Smith, K.C. | 31 | 225 | 1.13 | .48 | 15.8 |
| Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 29 | 209 | 1.28 | .41 | 15.5 |
| Brock Osweiler, Den.-Hou. | 21 | 215 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 15.2 |
| Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 19 | 203 | 1.16 | .47 | 14.8 |
| Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 16 | 202 | .88 | .56 | 13.6 |
—Ian Allan